2019 Season

[bobmc]

49 minutes ago, interloper said:

This season is going to be vaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaastly more interesting to witness than 2018. Game results won't change much, but... think of all the story lines we'll be able to follow other than the utter lost/pointless/bad veterans/lame duck manager & GM thing that happened last year. 

• Entirely new coaching staff to get to know throughout the year
• How does Hyde do in his first year through the grind of the season
• Does Davis improve at all
• Analytics and development and scouting hires throughout the season are likely
• Do we see evidence of data helping anyone
• Technology purchases/upgrades throughout the minor leagues
• Continuing to see how Elias/Sig operate
• Trades likely
• #1 pick in the draft
• Young hungry kids with speed and defensive capabilities

 

Troll alert!    Good points above but ...

• Rick Dempsey constantly praising Austin Wynn's improvement from the MASN perch since he worked with him.  (for those who watch MASN postgame reports)
• Will Davis accept a buyout?
• Will we get into the International Market in May?
• Will DSL team improve with new hierarchy in place?
• Will GrayRod dominate and will DL Hall continue his dominance?
• What about Hunter Harvey?
• Is Ca$hner not doomed to failure as @Frobby speculates?
• Will @Roy Firestone get on the bandwagon?

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think Cashner is doomed to be that awful.   He was respectable only two years ago, K rate be damned.    It’s not that big a reach to think he might put together a season in the 4.50-5.00 ERA range.    

His results were respectable two years ago, but the underlying numbers were ugly.

[wildbillhiccup]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think Cashner is doomed to be that awful.   He was respectable only two years ago, K rate be damned.    It’s not that big a reach to think he might put together a season in the 4.50-5.00 ERA range.    

An era near 5.00 seems pretty awful to me (even in the AL East). It's certainly not the type of season you pay someone $8M for. For our sake I hope you're right and we're able to trade him for a low level prospect before the deadline. 

[bobmc]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There is some validity to what you're saying but you may be overstating the impact of defense.  Mancini was graded out as a horrible left fielder last year, but... he's probably not going to play first all the time, and as a DH his positional adjustment will negate from a WAR perspective much of the benefit of him not fielding.  Mullins should be better than Jones with the glove, but will probably not hit as well.  Martin is a question mark, may not be better than Beckham (who was in AAA at Martin's '18 age).  Villar is almost 28 and has a career OPS of .719, he's a push with Schoop's production.

The daily lineup has basically no impact on scoring.  If Davis is in the lineup it really doesn't matter if he's batting 5th or 8th.  Unless someone has a serious mental block about, for example, hitting leadoff, the difference between a nonsense lineup and a perfect lineup is maybe 20 runs a season.  So any two halfway reasonable lineups are so close that you can't tell the difference.

I think they can win 60 or more games, but that will mostly be from better performances out of players like Mancini and Bundy.

Ouch!  Couldn't you "cherry pick" just a tad?    While I love your candor and research, can I add you to the list of folks who will not raise our hopes like @wildcard and @Redskins Rick do?  To wit:

Non Hope-Raising OH'ers (Realists?)

@Can of Corn

@webbrick2010

@wildbillhiccup

[PaulFolk]

20 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

23 win improvement gets Hyde MOY votes right?

 

20 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I dunno, I think you gotta be at .500 or better to get that.  

It's not unprecedented. Joe Girardi won Manager of the Year for the Marlins in 2006, when they went 78-84. The Marlins had sold off their entire team (again) and were expected to be 100+ loss bad, so Girardi got credit for them hovering near .500.

If the Orioles win 70 games in 2019, Hyde absolutely could win MOY. I can't imagine any other team that would exceed expectations by that much.

[bobmc]

On 1/28/2019 at 3:25 PM, DrungoHazewood said:

Dylan Bundy's #1 bb-ref comp through his current age: Jason Schmidt, who went 13-11, 4.19 with the '99 Pirates at 26. So far, so good.

Andrew Cashner's is Tyson Ross, who is the same age and doesn't help.  His #2 is former O's co-GM Jim Beattie.  Who at age 32 retired.

Alex Cobb's is Pascual Perez, who I can't think of without laughing.  But at age 31 Perez went 12-8 with a 2.44, and managed to go the entire year without getting lost on the interstate on the way to the game.  

I'm not entirely sure who the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th starters will be, and I don't know that anyone else is terribly sure, either.  So even if we manage to get the 2019 versions of Jason Schmidt and Pascual Perez the outlook for the rest of the staff is hazy. At best.  I'll be happy if the starters pitch to an ERA under 5.00, and I don't for a minute think Cobb and Bundy are going to combine to go 25-19 with a 3.25.

We pretty much surely know, however, that they will be terrible!*  

*  in the pure baseball sense but not in @weams ' 800 men (thanks @weams ) who play in MLB sense

[wildbillhiccup]

13 minutes ago, bobmc said:

Ouch!  Couldn't you "cherry pick" just a tad?    While I love your candor and research, can I add you to the list of folks who will not raise our hopes like @wildcard and @Redskins Rick do?  To wit:

Non Hope-Raising OH'ers

@Can of Corn

@webbrick2010

@wildbillhiccup

Non Hope Raisers = Realists

And for the record I'm pessimistic about the 2019 season, but very hopeful for the future. 

[bobmc]

6 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Non Hope Raisers = Realists

And for the record I'm pessimistic about the 2019 season, but very hopeful for the future. 

Record so noted!  I am a "glass half empty" kind of guy myself but always thinking positively in the closet when I'm there.  We've had a lot of failure (as Drungo etal have noted) but when Buck hit town, we did have our rush of adrenaline.  I want it back with a bullet!

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think Cashner is doomed to be that awful.   He was respectable only two years ago, K rate be damned.    It’s not that big a reach to think he might put together a season in the 4.50-5.00 ERA range.    

The AL ERA in 2018 was 4.27.  4.50-5.00 isn't good, especially when he's your 2nd or 3rd starter.  If things go well he'll get us six innings and give up three or four runs most of the time.

And you can't say "K rate be damned".  Cashner isn't some special case, some Britton or Ching Ming Wang hyper-ground ball guy, or some kind of knuckleballer.  He's just a guy with a 4.92 FIP over the last three years, and his teams have gone 32-51 in his games.

[weams]

3 hours ago, bobmc said:

We pretty much surely know, however, that they will be terrible!*  

*  in the pure baseball sense but not in @weams ' 300 men who play in MLB sense

 

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The AL ERA in 2018 was 4.27.  4.50-5.00 isn't good, especially when he's your 2nd or 3rd starter.  If things go well he'll get us six innings and give up three or four runs most of the time.

And you can't say "K rate be damned".  Cashner isn't some special case, some Britton or Ching Ming Wang hyper-ground ball guy, or some kind of knuckleballer.  He's just a guy with a 4.92 FIP over the last three years, and his teams have gone 32-51 in his games.

800. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The AL ERA in 2018 was 4.27.  4.50-5.00 isn't good, especially when he's your 2nd or 3rd starter.  If things go well he'll get us six innings and give up three or four runs most of the time.

And you can't say "K rate be damned".  Cashner isn't some special case, some Britton or Ching Ming Wang hyper-ground ball guy, or some kind of knuckleballer.  He's just a guy with a 4.92 FIP over the last three years, and his teams have gone 32-51 in his games.

I’m not saying the odds are in his favor.   Just that it’s far from impossible.    And I agree 4.50-5.00 isn’t exactly great.    It’s just a realistic hope for a degree of improvement over last year’s 5.29.  

[bobmc]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m not saying the odds are in his favor.   Just that it’s far from impossible.    And I agree 4.50-5.00 isn’t exactly great.    It’s just a realistic hope for a degree of improvement over last year’s 5.29.  

Bro (cail) knows Ca$h AND anal ytics.  He just needs those dingers to end on the warning track more often.  Git 'er done! 

[foxfield]

10 hours ago, bobmc said:

Troll alert!    Good points above but ...

• Rick Dempsey constantly praising Austin Wynn's improvement from the MASN perch since he worked with him.  (for those who watch MASN postgame reports)
• Will Davis accept a buyout?
• Will we get into the International Market in May?
• Will DSL team improve with new hierarchy in place?
• Will GrayRod dominate and will DL Hall continue his dominance?
• What about Hunter Harvey?
• Is Ca$hner not doomed to failure as @Frobby speculates?
• Will @Roy Firestone get on the bandwagon?

You forgot:
 

• Will Zollner make it to Baltimore in 2019?
• How long before Brady starts leaking negative stories? 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

1 minute ago, foxfield said:

You forgot:
 

• Will Zollner make it to Baltimore in 2019?
• How long before Brady starts leaking negative stories? 

If Zoellner makes it to Baltimore this year, expect a bidding war between me and @Can_of_corn on his Players Weekend jersey.

[bobmc]

17 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

If Zoellner makes it to Baltimore this year, expect a bidding war between me and @Can_of_corn on his Players Weekend jersey.

Could we also include Reinheimer?  He's Clay Carroll's daddy!  What would be Reinheimer's jersey name?  (JR is Dead?)