Dwight Smith Jr worth a look?

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

If you think that he’s playing over his head, what do you think would be normal range for him? He seems to be doing everything well, although I have no idea what kind of pitches he is hitting or not hitting. If he’s only hitting This pitch in This location, that might be a problem.

And if the coaches can anticipate what opposing pitches will notice and adjust to, Is it difficult to anticipate that adjustment and prepare for it?

I'm just pointing out that the statcast information suggests regression. If I had a gun to my head and was forced to predict, I think Smith is a 13-17 homer guy, .240-.260, .320.-.340 OBP, .390-.425 SLG guy when it's all said and done. 

Right now he's outperforming those totals and as an Orioles fan, I hope I'm wrong and he out performs those numbers.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't want to derail this Smith thread, but I'll just leave this:

Anderson's first 1273 PAs through ages 24-27: .219/.313/.306/.619 with a 77 OPS+
Anderson's next 2595 PAs through ages 28-31: .265/.367/.436/.802 with a 112 OPS+
Anderson's next 2649 PAs through ages 32-35: .278/.389/.505/.893 with a 131 OPS+

How many players pre and post steriod era had a major jump in production and power after 1273 major league PAs at the age of 24-27, and then was better from age 32-35 then their peak 28-31 age group?

I'm not going to call anyone a liar or say someone used steroids or not, but I can understand those who question Anderson from a statistical standpoint because that's not a normal career arch.
 

That one year of 156 OPS+ really skews those splits.   

Back to Smith: if he finishes the year around his MiL OPS of .747 I’d consider that a success.   

[Redskins Rick]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't want to derail this Smith thread, but I'll just leave this:

Anderson's first 1273 PAs through ages 24-27: .219/.313/.306/.619 with a 77 OPS+
Anderson's next 2595 PAs through ages 28-31: .265/.367/.436/.802 with a 112 OPS+
Anderson's next 2649 PAs through ages 32-35: .278/.389/.505/.893 with a 131 OPS+

How many players pre and post steriod era had a major jump in production and power after 1273 major league PAs at the age of 24-27, and then was better from age 32-35 then their peak 28-31 age group?

I'm not going to call anyone a liar or say someone used steroids or not, but I can understand those who question Anderson from a statistical standpoint because that's not a normal career arch.
 

Not to mention, the actual baseball itself was juiced up, would account for the large HR swing across MLB.

Sorry to derail, and back to Smith Jr.

I am shocked that they found a diamond in the rough, and my brain says this is a SSS, but am happy to watch and cheer the guy on.

 

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That one year of 156 OPS+ really skews those splits.   

Back to Smith: if he finishes the year around his MiL OPS of .747 I’d consider that a success.   

Ok, take out that year and add in his 36 year old year and his 33-36 stats are: .267/.384/.449/.832 with a 118 OPS+. 

As for Smith, yes, I would agree that would be a good end result for him.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Ok, take out that year and add in his 36 year old year and his 33-36 stats are: .267/.384/.449/.832 with a 118 OPS+. 

As for Smith, yes, I would agree that would be a good end result for Smith Jr.

Which would be an upgrade to the 2018 RF position.

[Philip]

47 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm just pointing out that the statcast information suggests regression. If I had a gun to my head and was forced to predict, I think Smith is a 13-17 homer guy, .240-.260, .320.-.340 OBP, .390-.425 SLG guy when it's all said and done. 

Right now he's outperforming those totals and as an Orioles fan, I hope I'm wrong and he out performs those numbers.

I wasn’t being contentious, by the way, I was just asking. But the numbers you sure are actually not bad. Wouldn’t that be about a 1.5-2 fWAR guy?

[bobmc]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

All of this is why I thought he was a similar player as Yastrzemski based off his minor league stats.

So far he's out performing his xBA (.247), xSLG (.430) and xwOBA (.314) and his exit velocity is in the 25th percentile all of  which suggests he will fall off some after his hot start. He's living off the fastball right now so it will be interesting to see if pitchers make an adjustment and he starts seeing a lot of off speed.

He's a slightly below average runner, but he gets decent jumps in LF, throws ok for a LFer but would be well below average in CF. He has a good approach at the plate where he limits his chases off the plate, but again, we will see what happens if he starts getting a steady diet of offspeed.

He's pleasantly surprised me so far with his production. 

Here is the play from last night to show his range and jump toward and to the ball:

 

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Sometimes thing click a bit later for these guys. Look at Brady, a versatile defensive outfielder who could play all 3 spots, with a weak bat, and then everything click for him.

Through the age of 27 Brady hit .219/.313/.306.  His peers, his top comps, were guys like Gerald Young, Stan Javier, Marvell Wynn, Herm Winningham, Cecil Espy, Curtis Goodwin.  Tony Gwynn... Junior. Those guys have everything click about one time in a hundred.  I wouldn't generalize from extreme outliers.

[nate22]

27 minutes ago, bobmc said:

Here is the play from last night to show his range and jump toward and to the ball:

I thought his awareness of where the wall was was incredible. He's not taking his eyes off the ball.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't want to derail this Smith thread, but I'll just leave this:

Anderson's first 1273 PAs through ages 24-27: .219/.313/.306/.619 with a 77 OPS+

Outfielders since WWII with an OPS+ between 74 and 80 through age 27 (min 1000 PAs):

                                                                                               
Rk             Player Year OPS+   PA From   To   Age   G   AB   R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB IBB  SO
1    Delino DeShields 2019   77 1600 2015 2019 22-26 441 1375 254 334  60 14 15 103 167   1 362
2      Jake Marisnick 2018   79 1532 2013 2018 22-27 565 1399 197 316  61  7 44 144  83   5 456
3           Felix Pie 2011   77 1051 2007 2011 22-26 398  964 127 240  44 13 17  97  68   1 214
4          Tony Gwynn 2010   75 1054 2006 2010 23-27 366  924 112 225  26 12  5  56 107   7 161
5         Chris Burke 2007   80 1155 2004 2007 24-27 359 1020 148 254  61  5 20  94  80   1 194
6       Cory Sullivan 2007   80 1020 2005 2007 25-27 337  904 130 254  47 15  8  74  69   4 208
7        Brian Hunter 1998   79 2302 1994 1998 23-27 520 2124 307 576 100 17 15 144 141   1 365
8       Marc Newfield 1998   76 1051 1993 1998 20-25 355  957  98 238  53  1 22 132  69   4 162
9         Tom Goodwin 1996   75 1230 1991 1996 22-27 381 1103 176 309  32  8  5  67  84   0 166
10        David Hulse 1995   74 1243 1992 1995 24-27 342 1148 189 310  32 20  5  97  68   3 188
11       Darren Lewis 1995   75 2287 1990 1995 22-27 579 2022 303 503  58 23  9 135 189   0 227
12     Brady Anderson 1991   77 1273 1988 1991 24-27 390 1081 139 237  42 11 10  88 135   8 210
13    Herm Winningham 1989   77 1466 1984 1989 22-27 581 1325 148 318  47 19 14 112 122  15 293
14      Marvell Wynne 1987   78 2001 1983 1987 23-27 595 1832 215 455  73 20 18 144 133   5 263
15      George Wright 1986   79 2325 1982 1986 23-27 627 2160 231 529  88 18 42 208 126  21 314
16        John Shelby 1985   78 1015 1981 1985 23-27 356  950 134 233  36  9 19  86  45   2 185
17        Hector Cruz 1980   79 1658 1973 1980 20-27 554 1479 170 332  65  9 32 185 157  15 289
18         Tony Scott 1979   77 1370 1973 1979 21-27 466 1249 158 315  47 17 10 135  94  11 223
19       Rusty Torres 1976   80 1100 1971 1976 22-27 440  951 107 198  36  4 21  83 117  12 177
20           Don Hahn 1975   75 1149 1969 1975 20-26 454  997 104 235  38  4  7  74 122   9 158
21          Boots Day 1974   76 1289 1969 1974 21-26 471 1151 146 295  28  6  8  98  95  11 141
22          Bill Voss 1971   80 1151 1965 1971 21-27 397 1029 107 238  21  9 18 118 101  11 145
23       Cap Peterson 1969   80 1289 1962 1969 19-26 536 1170 106 269  44  5 19 122 101  11 195
24      Bill Robinson 1969   75 1009 1966 1969 23-26 316  917  89 190  33 11 16  93  70  10 150
25     Jose Tartabull 1966   78 1300 1962 1966 23-27 463 1192 154 316  36 21  2  78  77   0  92
26     Nelson Mathews 1965   78 1076 1960 1965 18-23 306  978  93 218  39 14 22  98  88  13 248
27      Bob Borkowski 1953   74 1046 1950 1953 24-27 363  971 110 246  30  9 15  92  66   3 140
28       Hal Jeffcoat 1952   76 1706 1948 1952 23-27 523 1590 190 404  84 15 16 143  81   3 202
29     Lloyd Merriman 1951   75 1038 1949 1951 24-26 309  944 113 230  50 10 11  93  82   4  93

 

Brady didn't just have the best career among players on this list, he lapped the field three times.  Tom Goodwin (.670 OPS, 244 SB) is probably #2.  Brady and Felix Pie were neck-and-neck through 27.

[Moose Milligan]

On that list I count a few guys who's rookie cards I coveted, thinking I would be rich someday.  

[bobmc]

1 hour ago, nate22 said:

 

Also, as luck would have it, the ball ended up between the little kid and the man in back left.  If that kid was there, he might have interceded with the ball flight and prevented the catch since he wasn't watching Smith.  But great focus and timing for Dwight Smith, Jr. there!  Here's a better angle from the parent club:

 

Edited April 24, 2019 by bobmc
Another video

[Bubble Buddy]

43 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Outfielders since WWII with an OPS+ between 74 and 80 through age 27 (min 1000 PAs):

 

                                                                                               
Rk             Player Year OPS+   PA From   To   Age   G   AB   R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB IBB  SO
1    Delino DeShields 2019   77 1600 2015 2019 22-26 441 1375 254 334  60 14 15 103 167   1 362
2      Jake Marisnick 2018   79 1532 2013 2018 22-27 565 1399 197 316  61  7 44 144  83   5 456
3           Felix Pie 2011   77 1051 2007 2011 22-26 398  964 127 240  44 13 17  97  68   1 214
4          Tony Gwynn 2010   75 1054 2006 2010 23-27 366  924 112 225  26 12  5  56 107   7 161
5         Chris Burke 2007   80 1155 2004 2007 24-27 359 1020 148 254  61  5 20  94  80   1 194
6       Cory Sullivan 2007   80 1020 2005 2007 25-27 337  904 130 254  47 15  8  74  69   4 208
7        Brian Hunter 1998   79 2302 1994 1998 23-27 520 2124 307 576 100 17 15 144 141   1 365
8       Marc Newfield 1998   76 1051 1993 1998 20-25 355  957  98 238  53  1 22 132  69   4 162
9         Tom Goodwin 1996   75 1230 1991 1996 22-27 381 1103 176 309  32  8  5  67  84   0 166
10        David Hulse 1995   74 1243 1992 1995 24-27 342 1148 189 310  32 20  5  97  68   3 188
11       Darren Lewis 1995   75 2287 1990 1995 22-27 579 2022 303 503  58 23  9 135 189   0 227
12     Brady Anderson 1991   77 1273 1988 1991 24-27 390 1081 139 237  42 11 10  88 135   8 210
13    Herm Winningham 1989   77 1466 1984 1989 22-27 581 1325 148 318  47 19 14 112 122  15 293
14      Marvell Wynne 1987   78 2001 1983 1987 23-27 595 1832 215 455  73 20 18 144 133   5 263
15      George Wright 1986   79 2325 1982 1986 23-27 627 2160 231 529  88 18 42 208 126  21 314
16        John Shelby 1985   78 1015 1981 1985 23-27 356  950 134 233  36  9 19  86  45   2 185
17        Hector Cruz 1980   79 1658 1973 1980 20-27 554 1479 170 332  65  9 32 185 157  15 289
18         Tony Scott 1979   77 1370 1973 1979 21-27 466 1249 158 315  47 17 10 135  94  11 223
19       Rusty Torres 1976   80 1100 1971 1976 22-27 440  951 107 198  36  4 21  83 117  12 177
20           Don Hahn 1975   75 1149 1969 1975 20-26 454  997 104 235  38  4  7  74 122   9 158
21          Boots Day 1974   76 1289 1969 1974 21-26 471 1151 146 295  28  6  8  98  95  11 141
22          Bill Voss 1971   80 1151 1965 1971 21-27 397 1029 107 238  21  9 18 118 101  11 145
23       Cap Peterson 1969   80 1289 1962 1969 19-26 536 1170 106 269  44  5 19 122 101  11 195
24      Bill Robinson 1969   75 1009 1966 1969 23-26 316  917  89 190  33 11 16  93  70  10 150
25     Jose Tartabull 1966   78 1300 1962 1966 23-27 463 1192 154 316  36 21  2  78  77   0  92
26     Nelson Mathews 1965   78 1076 1960 1965 18-23 306  978  93 218  39 14 22  98  88  13 248
27      Bob Borkowski 1953   74 1046 1950 1953 24-27 363  971 110 246  30  9 15  92  66   3 140
28       Hal Jeffcoat 1952   76 1706 1948 1952 23-27 523 1590 190 404  84 15 16 143  81   3 202
29     Lloyd Merriman 1951   75 1038 1949 1951 24-26 309  944 113 230  50 10 11  93  82   4  93

 

 

Brady didn't just have the best career among players on this list, he lapped the field three times.  Tom Goodwin (.670 OPS, 244 SB) is probably #2.  Brady and Felix Pie were neck-and-neck through 27.

Interesting. Felix Pie has his moments with us. That's a good comparison for me to temper expectations. 

[OFFNY]

o

 

(vs. WHITE SOX, May 1st)

 

Smith Jr hit an RBI-double with 2 men on and nobody out in the top of the 7th inning, tying the game at 4 apiece.

Smith Jr is now batting .444 (12-for-27) with RISP for the season.

 

o

[OFFNY]

o

 

 

(vs. D-RAYS, 5/04)

 

NUMBER 6

 

JOHN DWIGHT SMITH, JR.

JOHN DWIGHT SMITH, JR.

JOHN DWIGHT SMITH, JR.

JOHN DWIGHT SMITH, JR.

JOHN DWIGHT SMITH, JR.

JOHN DWIGHT SMITH, JR. JOHN DWIGHT SMITH, JR.

 

o