Are Baseballs "Juiced" This Season?

[Frobby]

On 4/23/2019 at 3:23 PM, Tx Oriole said:

Oh I don’t know. I hate to make any excuses. Our pitchers are pretty bad. If they can’t pitch worth spit how can they blame the baseball being juiced? I don’t know. Maybe it is. 

I wonder what the record is for most homers allowed as a percentage of the league average. For example, this year’s Orioles are allowing 2.09 homers/game, compared to league average 1.38. We are 51.4% above league average.    

The 2016 Reds, who currently hold the record for most homers allowed in a season, allowed 1.59 per game in a league that averaged 1.10.   That’s 44.5% above league average.   

I wonder if any team has ever been more than 51.4% above league average in HR allowed.  

[SurhoffRules]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wonder what the record is for most homers allowed as a percentage of the league average. For example, this year’s Orioles are allowing 2.09 homers/game, compared to league average 1.38. We are 51.4% above league average.    

The 2016 Reds, who currently hold the record for most homers allowed in a season, allowed 1.59 per game in a league that averaged 1.10.   That’s 44.5% above league average.   

I wonder if any team has ever been more than 51.4% above league average in HR allowed.  

For your consideration, the top ten from the last 20 seasons:

Year	Tm	HR9	lgHR9	HR9/lgHR9
2019	BAL	2.1	1.4	150%
2011	BAL	1.3	0.9	144%
2009	BAL	1.4	1.0	140%
2005	CIN	1.4	1.0	140%
2004	CIN	1.5	1.1	136%
2001	COL	1.5	1.1	136%
2016	CIN	1.6	1.2	133%
2011	HOU	1.2	0.9	133%
2013	BAL	1.3	1.0	130%
2012	COL	1.3	1.0	130%

And the bottom 10 from the same time:

Year	Tm	HR9	lgHR9	HR9/lgHR9
2013	MIA	0.7	1.0	70%
2013	STL	0.7	1.0	70%
2009	ATL	0.7	1.0	70%
2007	SDP	0.7	1.0	70%
2005	FLA	0.7	1.0	70%
2011	SFG	0.6	0.9	67%
1999	HOU	0.8	1.2	67%
2019	TBR	0.9	1.4	64%
2002	SFG	0.7	1.1	64%
2013	PIT	0.6	1.0	60%

 

Edited May 30, 2019 by SurhoffRules
Added bottom 10.

[Enjoy Terror]

We’re not particularly good at keeping the ball in the park apparently.

[TGO]

4 minutes ago, SurhoffRules said:

For your consideration, the top ten from the last 20 seasons:

Year	Tm	HR9	lgHR9	HR9/lgHR9
2019	BAL	2.1	1.4	150%
2011	BAL	1.3	0.9	144%
2009	BAL	1.4	1.0	140%
2005	CIN	1.4	1.0	140%
2004	CIN	1.5	1.1	136%
2001	COL	1.5	1.1	136%
2016	CIN	1.6	1.2	133%
2011	HOU	1.2	0.9	133%
2013	BAL	1.3	1.0	130%
2012	COL	1.3	1.0	130%

And the bottom 10 from the same time:

Year	Tm	HR9	lgHR9	HR9/lgHR9
2013	MIA	0.7	1.0	70%
2013	STL	0.7	1.0	70%
2009	ATL	0.7	1.0	70%
2007	SDP	0.7	1.0	70%
2005	FLA	0.7	1.0	70%
2011	SFG	0.6	0.9	67%
1999	HOU	0.8	1.2	67%
2019	TBR	0.9	1.4	64%
2002	SFG	0.7	1.1	64%
2013	PIT	0.6	1.0	60%

 

HR/9 is slightly different but obviously a bit more fair as a comparison tool. Great find.

[Moose Milligan]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wonder what the record is for most homers allowed as a percentage of the league average. For example, this year’s Orioles are allowing 2.09 homers/game, compared to league average 1.38. We are 51.4% above league average.    

The 2016 Reds, who currently hold the record for most homers allowed in a season, allowed 1.59 per game in a league that averaged 1.10.   That’s 44.5% above league average.   

I wonder if any team has ever been more than 51.4% above league average in HR allowed.  

Season ain't over yet.

[SurhoffRules]

Just now, Enjoy Terror said:

We’re not particularly good at keeping the ball in the park apparently.

There are like 631 seasons in this data set. There are 8 Orioles Seasons in the top 10%.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Season ain't over yet.

I found one that was worse — the ‘68 Cubs allowed .85 homers per game in a year when the league average was .55 — 54.5% above league average.    Of course, that league average was incredibly low, in the Year of the Pitcher.    

I suspect if I kept looking I’d find other teams that were more than 51.4% above league average.    But I found one, so I’m stopping.  

[SurhoffRules]

12 minutes ago, TGO said:

HR/9 is slightly different but obviously a bit more fair as a comparison tool. Great find.

Year	Tm	HR/G	lgHR/G	HR/G / lgHR/6
2019	BAL	2.09	1.35	155%
2011	BAL	1.30	0.94	138%
2016	CIN	1.59	1.15	138%
2010	ARI	1.30	0.95	136%
2002	COL	1.39	1.04	133%
2001	COL	1.48	1.12	131%
2005	CIN	1.34	1.03	130%
2013	BAL	1.25	0.96	130%
2009	BAL	1.35	1.04	130%
2004	CIN	1.46	1.12	130%
....
2013	STL	0.69	0.96	72%
2007	SDP	0.73	1.02	72%
2009	ATL	0.73	1.04	71%
1999	HOU	0.79	1.14	70%
2005	FLA	0.72	1.03	69%
2002	SFG	0.72	1.04	69%
2015	PIT	0.68	1.01	67%
2019	TBR	0.89	1.35	66%
2013	PIT	0.62	0.96	65%
2011	SFG	0.59	0.94	63%

Ask and ye shall and all that.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I found one that was worse — the ‘68 Cubs allowed .85 homers per game in a year when the league average was .55 — 54.5% above league average.    Of course, that league average was incredibly low, in the Year of the Pitcher.    

I suspect if I kept looking I’d find other teams that were more than 51.4% above league average.    But I found one, so I’m stopping.  

I've been looking for a few minutes, haven't been able to find one.  Thought some expansion teams like the '77 Blue Jays and the '62 Mets would be in that range but nope.  It's an interesting challenge.

[Moose Milligan]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I found one that was worse — the ‘68 Cubs allowed .85 homers per game in a year when the league average was .55 — 54.5% above league average.    Of course, that league average was incredibly low, in the Year of the Pitcher.    

I suspect if I kept looking I’d find other teams that were more than 51.4% above league average.    But I found one, so I’m stopping.  

Not sure where you're finding your data as yours looks more precise than where I'm searching.  But the 1926 St. Louis Browns (yep, Orioles of course) gave up .6 when the AL average was .3   Way different times though, obviously.

[LookinUp]

The eyeball test tells me that HR% is significantly skewed by park factors.

Baltimore, Cincinnati, Arizona and Colorado comprise the top 10. It's hard to keep the ball in those parks. 

[SurhoffRules]

10 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

The eyeball test tells me that HR% is significantly skewed by park factors.

Baltimore, Cincinnati, Arizona and Colorado comprise the top 10. It's hard to keep the ball in those parks. 

Arizona and Colorado I buy, but the PF for Baltimore is normally right on 100. Opposing pitchers don't tend to have to much trouble at Camden compared to other parks.

That said, I've definitely seen it speculated that we have some odd park effects that aren't accounted for. Our outfielders defensive metrics have been questioned a number of times and some folks things the dimensons reduce triples while inflating HRs. The hotel that popped up across the street comes up in HR conversations often too.

 

 

[LookinUp]

The data isn't perfectly stable, but for HR rate, Camden Yards typically ranks pretty high. Here are a few seasons.

2019 - 5th
2018 - 8th
2017 - 3rd
2016 - 18th
2015 - 2nd
2014 - 20th
2013 - 4th
2012 - 5th
2011 - 8th
2010 - 5th
2009 - 5th
2008 - 1st
2007 - 3rd
2006 - 8th
2005 - 15th

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Not sure where you're finding your data as yours looks more precise than where I'm searching.  But the 1926 St. Louis Browns (yep, Orioles of course) gave up .6 when the AL average was .3   Way different times though, obviously.

Yeah, I was just looking at the period right before homers became common, and found a couple of years, 1916 and 1918, where the Yankees allowed slightly  more than double the league average in homers.    So, unless the Orioles give up 2.8 homers a game, they won’t match that record.    

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I wonder what the record is for most homers allowed as a percentage of the league average. For example, this year’s Orioles are allowing 2.09 homers/game, compared to league average 1.38. We are 51.4% above league average.    

The 2016 Reds, who currently hold the record for most homers allowed in a season, allowed 1.59 per game in a league that averaged 1.10.   That’s 44.5% above league average.   

I wonder if any team has ever been more than 51.4% above league average in HR allowed.  

Without looking I'd say there's a 95%+ chance of someone being way above that in the deadball era.  There were individual players who hit, like, 18 homers.  17 at home, 1 on the road, because it was 258 to right and 306 in the alley and most parks had a 475' or 500' sign or two.

Edit: I picked 1915 to look up first.  In the AL the Yanks allowed 41 homers.  The 2nd-most was the A's 22, and the league average was 20.

Then I picked 1899.  The Bostons allowd 44 homers, the league average was 29, so that was 52% above average.  Boston led the league in ERA.

In 1906 the A's allowed 32 homers, league average was 17.  88% above average.