BA: 2020 International Draft?

[weams]

57 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I think you're kidding yourself if you think the handlers are just going to disappear. The kids still need some place to practice, access to gear, exposure to MLB scouts. The handlers can provide all of that.

We disagree. 

[BobDylanBundy]

18 hours ago, Hallas said:

Part of me also thinks that the reason the talent pool is coming back is because the money being thrown around the first year player draft is hitting critical mass.  Chipper Jones was 1:1 in the 1990 draft, and he signed for 275K. Compare that to AR's 8.1M signing bonus, almost 30x higher.  The median MLB salary increased only about 9-fold in that same time frame. (~578K vs 4.52M)

This is a prime example of why I've never understood the MLBPA's adamant defense of amateur talent, both domestic and international. Yes, the majority of Major League players at one time signed an amateur contract with a team. There's also probably billions of dollars by now spent on prospects who burnt out without advancing far enough to ever join the MLBPA. Your multi-million dollar 18-year old who tops out at High-A is a lose-lose for both the players and the owners. It would be beneficial to both sides if there were overhauls to the amateur system to bring the top amateur signings down to that $275K range, with MAJOR concessions (such as relinquishing a club-controlled contract year or floating revenue-based minimum salary) to redirect those savings toward players who are actually current members of the MLBPA. The owners win in that their money spent is going toward quality instead of potential (and to a certain degree, Major League level spending probably increases attendance/merchandise revenues a lot more than amateur); the MLBPA wins by significantly increasing earnings for its actual members rather than people who might one day become a member ... as compared to the current system, where the amateurs and agents win even though they don't even have a seat at the negotiating table.

[Can_of_corn]

So the MLBPA should once again bargain away the rights of people who are not allowed in the union?

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

So the MLBPA should once again bargain away the rights of people who are not allowed in the union?

The kids in the minors badly need to form their own union. There should never be a case where people are represented by those who are working for other's best interest in not your own.

[Greg Pappas]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

So the MLBPA should once again bargain away the rights of people who are not allowed in the union?

 

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

The kids in the minors badly need to form their own union. There should never be a case where people are represented by those who are working for other's best interest in not your own.

https://www.latimes.com/sports/mlb/la-sp-mlb-column-20180915-story.html

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

The kids in the minors badly need to form their own union. There should never be a case where people are represented by those who are working for other's best interest in not your own.

The MLBPA should offer the minor leaguers membership in the union as a pr move to strengthen public opinion during the next labor unrest.

 

 

[SteveA]

9 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think MLB would be fine with a 1920 talent level just so long as they're profitable and have a shot at their piece of the pool.  If MLB's talent level regressed to a Babe Ruth era level over a decade or two the only people who'd really notice would a niche of sabr guys running obscure studies.

Really?   I would think if the overall talent level dropped significantly, the superstars who stuck around like Trout would stand out more.   Drop the talent pool of pitching and Mike Trout OPS's 1.100 each year.   Drop the talent pool of hitting and Scherzer has a 1.28 ERA.

I think something like that would be noticable to a lot more than just a few SABR nerds.

[Hallas]

12 hours ago, BobDylanBundy said:

This is a prime example of why I've never understood the MLBPA's adamant defense of amateur talent, both domestic and international. Yes, the majority of Major League players at one time signed an amateur contract with a team. There's also probably billions of dollars by now spent on prospects who burnt out without advancing far enough to ever join the MLBPA. Your multi-million dollar 18-year old who tops out at High-A is a lose-lose for both the players and the owners. It would be beneficial to both sides if there were overhauls to the amateur system to bring the top amateur signings down to that $275K range, with MAJOR concessions (such as relinquishing a club-controlled contract year or floating revenue-based minimum salary) to redirect those savings toward players who are actually current members of the MLBPA. The owners win in that their money spent is going toward quality instead of potential (and to a certain degree, Major League level spending probably increases attendance/merchandise revenues a lot more than amateur); the MLBPA wins by significantly increasing earnings for its actual members rather than people who might one day become a member ... as compared to the current system, where the amateurs and agents win even though they don't even have a seat at the negotiating table.

Hard disagree.  First of all, the chance for a top 5 pick of reaching the majors appears to be closer to 85%. (see: https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/) Secondly, even with the failure rate of draft picks, it still represents a massive bargain compared to MLB free agency.  The very reason that draft picks and IFAs get paid so well is because it's still cheaper to pay that than it is to build a team via free agency.  Thirdly, if potential pro players can't have some level of financial guarantee for investing in (and performing) in their chosen sport, then they will choose something else.  Maybe they'll play futbol and go make millions in Europe instead.  Finally, the year-over-year correlation for major league production is something like 60-70% for hitters, and like 40-50% for pitchers, and the FA salaries are much larger.  The FA misses are driving a much larger part of the inefficiency in baseball, and consequently what's driving the stagnation of MLB FA salaries as teams get more judicious about handing them out and/or lock up young stars much earlier..

[weams]

5 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

The kids in the minors badly need to form their own union. There should never be a case where people are represented by those who are working for other's best interest in not your own.

Since they don't' play for the MLB how would that work? They don't get paid any money until they make the majors. How would they collectively bargain the hundreds of dollars they make a month?

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, weams said:

Since they don't' play for the MLB how would that work? They don't get paid any money until they make the majors. How would they collectively bargain the hundreds of dollars they make a month?

They could strike for better salaries and benefits.  It would at least be inconvenient and uncomfortable for major league teams to have to buy someone from the Atlantic League every time their second baseman turns an ankle. And the player they bought would be in the weird situation of being a scab from the MiLBPA, but a member of the MLBPA.  

It would be even stranger if they got the indy league players on board with their union.  Then the majors' next source of replacement talent during a strike would be... adult men's leagues?  Mexico?  

With teams going to their AAA affiliate about as often as Earl used to pinch hit a minor league strike would be a huge impact.

[Greg Pappas]

Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs was asked this afternoon in a chat: What odds would you put on there being an international draft in 2020?

 

Kiley McDaniel

2020: 10%
2021: 35%
2022: 90%

[MurphDogg]

Interesting piece in Deadspin today on the proposed International Draft

[Sessh]

25 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Interesting piece in Deadspin today on the proposed International Draft

Interesting indeed. I feel a strike may be even more likely than I thought and there's no reason any minor league players should be living in poverty. I think I'm firmly against an international draft at this point and can empathize a little more with why they might want to strike. Sounds like a huge mess that MLB seems intent on making worse.