Extending Home Grown vs FA

[nadecir]

Let's face facts.  

• The Orioles have a couple of bad, expensive contracts with Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo.  There is a high likelihood these players' performance will decline further in the next few years.
• The Orioles also have some good players in their last contract years,  see Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Zach Britton.
• The Orioles do not have a top-ranked farm system or a bunch of top-flite young major leaguers that can fill the many holes this year or in the next couple of years.
• The Orioles currently have a starting pitching rotation that has major questions at 3 of the 5 pieces.
• The Orioles operating budget will not rank in the top 5 in baseball in the near future.
• The Orioles best reliever is injured and will be out for an extended time period this season.
• The Orioles play in a division with some high spending teams in win-now mode.  These teams have better major league rosters and in general, they have better young talent too.

It would take a miracle for the Orioles to compete in 2018, and expecting them to compete in the next couple of years beyond 2018 looks even less likely.

Given these facts, a rational baseball organization might make aggressive efforts to build for the future beyond this year.  A good organization would move the current major league players they could for a bunch of low-level prospects who are not yet major league ready.  They would invest in young players with some international signings.  These organizations would seek out and covet top 5 draft picks.  A rational organization would plan on sucking for a few years in order to build a team that could compete say, in the next 3 to 5 years.  More than one baseball organization has proved successful at executing this type of long-term plan. And there are other baseball organizations attempting this type of "suck now so you can win later" plan this year.

The Orioles will likely suck this year.  And the bad news is that it looks like the Orioles really suck at sucking.  The good news is that there is still time for the Orioles to do the right thing this year and start building for the future.

[Can_of_corn]

I wouldn't say the Yankees are in win now mode.  They are just in position to win now.

[Plutarch]

24 minutes ago, weams said:

It's possible.

It's possible but not probable.  Even though much of the AL may be weak, the O's are still going to have to face higher quality opponents  (Yanks, Sox, Jays and yes even the Rays) more  than the Seattle or Minnesota, etc.  

[orange23]

8 minutes ago, Plutarch said:

It's possible but not probable.  Even though much of the AL may be weak, the O's are still going to have to face higher quality opponents  (Yanks, Sox, Jays and yes even the Rays) more  than the Seattle or Minnesota, etc.  

Well it's possible and that's all the satisfaction I need at the moment. Yes, pitchers and catchers report today but there's still time to make moves. We definitely have to add to the rotation but nothing is guaranteed anyway even if we do add a "quality" arm. Not everybody on the team will play to their potential but if we have a solid core that can do their job like in 2012 or 2014, we can make a run.

[maybenxtyr]

2 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

I agree.

They could have sent Britton packing for much cheaper than keeping him.

 

They could not have sent Britton packing after his injury this off season. Before they offered him a contract they could, but they showed no signs of wanting to do that.

[Hank Scorpio]

59 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I figure they are going to lose either way.

I'd rather lose a few more with young guys.

Is the team ascending or descending? With most teams, it's reasonably easy to see this... with the Orioles, I haven't really had much of an idea the last 5 years. I guess that's part of their formula for success, figure out a way with a patchwork 25 man roster. The Orioles won 96 games and the division in 2014 without Manny Machado or Chris Davis in the 2nd half. Know how? They had really good starting pitching, that's how.

Know what they haven't had in ... ANY ... of the other years? Good starting pitching. Know what they're unlikely to have this year? Average starting pitching.

Someone in the FO or Buck or whoever hitched their reins to homers, bullpen and defense and the results have been pretty damned good considering the haphazard/nonstandard approach. But if you look at the historical results, they have been their best when the starting pitching has excelled. We're going into Spring Training with 2/5 of a rotation and let's be honest.... 2 guys who have shown flashes but not consistency.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Is the team ascending or descending? With most teams, it's reasonably easy to see this... with the Orioles, I haven't really had much of an idea the last 5 years. I guess that's part of their formula for success, figure out a way with a patchwork 25 man roster. The Orioles won 96 games and the division in 2014 without Manny Machado or Chris Davis in the 2nd half. Know how? They had really good starting pitching, that's how.

Know what they haven't had in ... ANY ... of the other years? Good starting pitching. Know what they're unlikely to have this year? Average starting pitching.

Someone in the FO or Buck or whoever hitched their reins to homers, bullpen and defense and the results have been pretty damned good considering the haphazard/nonstandard approach. But if you look at the historical results, they have been their best when the starting pitching has excelled. We're going into Spring Training with 2/5 of a rotation and let's be honest.... 2 guys who have shown flashes but not consistency.

They haven't had the defense in the last few years.

[Yardball85]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If they are looking to cut payroll they are doing it wrong.

This.  If you are looking to cut payroll, don't sign Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo to stupid contracts.  

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Is the team ascending or descending? With most teams, it's reasonably easy to see this... with the Orioles, I haven't really had much of an idea the last 5 years. I guess that's part of their formula for success, figure out a way with a patchwork 25 man roster. The Orioles won 96 games and the division in 2014 without Manny Machado or Chris Davis in the 2nd half. Know how? They had really good starting pitching, that's how.

Know what they haven't had in ... ANY ... of the other years? Good starting pitching. Know what they're unlikely to have this year? Average starting pitching.

Someone in the FO or Buck or whoever hitched their reins to homers, bullpen and defense and the results have been pretty damned good considering the haphazard/nonstandard approach. But if you look at the historical results, they have been their best when the starting pitching has excelled. We're going into Spring Training with 2/5 of a rotation and let's be honest.... 2 guys who have shown flashes but not consistency.

The O's are developing 2 first round starters in their rotation  to reach their high potential.   I think that is the right direction.   No one expected Tillman or fall off a cliff at 29.  At least not at the end of 2016.   But it may have happened.   Those three starters were to be the backbone of the rotation.  Miley and Hellickson were certainly fill ins until the farm could produce more quality starters.   Jimenez inability to control his stuff on any consistent basis was just unfortunate.

The O's drafted Hunter Harvey on the 1st round on 2013.   4 1/2 years later they are still trying to get him to the majors.    Sedlock, Akins and DL Hall all show a willingness and an effort to draft pitching as a high priority.    Frobby just showed a chart in the last few days that showed the O's to have one of the highest innings pitched by home grown pitchers.   

The  real short comings here are 1)  the inability to keep prospects healthy  2)  the inability attract FA starters to the O's because the park the O's play in and the risk averse nature on the ownership and 3) the trade on young starters to try to follow a 'win now" approach.   The last worked for a while but now we are seeing the painful side of that approach.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

The O's are developing 2 first round starters in their rotation  to reach their high potential.   I think that is the right direction.   No one expected Tillman or fall off a cliff at 29.  At least not at the end of 2016.   But it may have happened.   Those three starters were to be the backbone of the rotation.  Miley and Hellickson were certainly fill ins until the farm could produce more quality starters.   Jimenez inability to control his stuff on any consistent basis was just unfortunate.

The O's drafted Hunter Harvey on the 1st round on 2013.   4 1/2 years later they are still trying to get him to the majors.    Sedlock, Akins and DL Hall all show a willingness and an effort to draft pitching as a high priority.    Frobby just showed a chart in the last few days that showed the O's to have one of the highest innings pitched by home grown pitchers.   

The  real short comings here are 1)  the inability to keep prospects healthy  2)  the inability attract FA starters to the O's because the park the O's play in and the risk averse nature on the ownership and 3) the trade on young starters to try to follow a 'win now" approach.   The last worked for a while but now we are seeing the painful side of that approach.

You left off

4) Essentially ignoring the International market.

[Hank Scorpio]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You left off

4) Essentially ignoring the International market.

And

5) Trading away at least one viable ML pitcher for a middling rental. (Not including Eduardo Rodriguez, that could be argued as a prudent move given where they were.)

6) Not trading Machado when it became clear they have would no shot @ retaining him... and it also became clear that they just didn't have the horses to contend for the division (vs. Boston & NY.) Always have a shot at that 2nd Wild Card, baby.

If they're not within 3-4 games of the 2nd Wild Card this year and they don't trade Manny Machado.... I may need to lay down.

[Redskins Rick]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

They could not have sent Britton packing after his injury this off season. Before they offered him a contract they could, but they showed no signs of wanting to do that.

You are correct, what I said was wrong and based on early reports from the media, that the Orioles could give him an injury settlement and be done with him, since it didnt happen in ST or during the season. But, apparently that is wrong, since it happened while he was doing workouts to stay in baseball shape.

[TradeAngelos]

Angelos was essentially forced to carry a higher payroll for a (very few) years because we just happened to have a bunch of good payers that happened to be all up for arb and kept getting raises. It wasn't by design, it is the LAST thing he wants to do but it isn't like you can non tender good young players producing. Throw in one 17m AAV deal to bring back a fan favorite and all of the sudden he is being called a free spender! LMAO Back to reality. You suckers will fall for it every time. He plays the fans like a fiddle and most are more than willing to "believe". Show me a single 85 yr old man who has ever changed his stripes. He is the same pathetic horrible owner he has always been, as cheap as possible unless he is getting his arm twisted in some way. But he will always regain the upper hand. It is what he does. 

You want the truth about what he is? Manny Machado. Jonathan Schoop. That is what he is. And always will be. 

 

 

 

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

Angelos was essentially forced to carry a higher payroll for a (very few) years because we just happened to have a bunch of good payers that happened to be all up for arb and kept getting raises. It wasn't by design, it is the LAST thing he wants to do but it isn't like you can non tender good young players producing. Throw in one 17m AAV deal to bring back a fan favorite and all of the sudden he is being called a free spender! LMAO Back to reality. You suckers will fall for it every time. He plays the fans like a fiddle and most are more than willing to "believe". Show me a single 85 yr old man who has ever changed his stripes. He is the same pathetic horrible owner he has always been, as cheap as possible unless he is getting his arm twisted in some way. But he will always regain the upper hand. It is what he does. 

You want the truth about what he is? Manny Machado. Jonathan Schoop. That is what he is. And always will be. 

 

 

 

As much as I hate Angelos. I have to disagree. While he isnt a big spender, he isnt a cheapstake when it comes to the team and how they travel and where they stay.

Bidwell was so bad for the NFL Cardinals, that players have to provide their own shampoos and stuff for the clubhouse shower. He wouldn't even provide the gloves to WRs for game play. Stayed in lower star hotels, team meals where cheapo and the charters where cheapo too.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

Angelos was essentially forced to carry a higher payroll for a (very few) years because we just happened to have a bunch of good payers that happened to be all up for arb and kept getting raises. It wasn't by design, it is the LAST thing he wants to do but it isn't like you can non tender good young players producing. Throw in one 17m AAV deal to bring back a fan favorite and all of the sudden he is being called a free spender! LMAO Back to reality. You suckers will fall for it every time. He plays the fans like a fiddle and most are more than willing to "believe". Show me a single 85 yr old man who has ever changed his stripes. He is the same pathetic horrible owner he has always been, as cheap as possible unless he is getting his arm twisted in some way. But he will always regain the upper hand. It is what he does. 

You want the truth about what he is? Manny Machado. Jonathan Schoop. That is what he is. And always will be. 

 

 

 

Hardy, O'Day, Trumbo, Davis.

All four extended or resigned.

If he were running things to be "as cheap as possible" why didn't the payroll linger in the bottom five during the losing period?  Why would he sign folks like Millar, Tejada, Bradford, and Baez?