Orioles open up job spot for Luke-OH

[Obando]

19 minutes ago, atomic said:

If you read Astroball this caused them to try and trade Keuchel and not value Altuve at all.  They also didn't give JD Martinez much of a chance and lost him. 

If everyone goes down the same path then they will miss a ton of players.  You can't predict what 17 and 18 year olds are going to become with just stats and some measurements.  Also determination is something you aren't going to be able to judge with numbers. 

If you read Astroball, and understand how Sig Mejdal’s draft system works, it factors in both traditional scouting and statistical analysis.  The draft system he built in St. Louis was called STOUT, which stands for stats and scout.  Sure, there is more predictive data available on college players, but it’s not like the Astros completely ignored high school players in their drafts.  The Luhnow-Mejdal-Elias team drafted Carlos Correa number 1 out of high school in 2012, and also took Lance McCullers & Rio Ruiz out of HS in the top 4 rounds of that draft.  They drafted Brady Aiken first overall out of HS in 2014, even though they didn’t sign him due to what turned out to be legit concerns about his elbow that were discovered after he was drafted.  They drafted Kyle Tucker out of HS within the top 5 picks in 2015, and they drafted Forrest Whitley in the 1st round out of HS in 2016.  So I think it’s pretty clear that the Astros had a pretty strong draft model that included assessment of high school players, and you can’t tell me they didn’t rely on scouts for feedback on these player, which is even more necessary for high school players with less accessible data available on them compared to college players.  Sig Mejdal and the Astros under Luhnow tried to make the draft more of a science than an art by incorporating a lot of data into their decisions, but that doesn’t mean that they ever ignored the scouts’ assessments in the field.  What Mike Elias did today is consistent with how the Astros operate, and is essentially all about making the scouting operation more efficient and cohesive to fit his vision.  He got rid of the scouts and a FO member that he didn’t think fit his philosophy, and stated that he will be hiring new scouts, analysts, and front office assistants that do fit his philosophy. I don’t see why anyone should have an issue with this, and if anyone didn’t see this eventually coming when Elias was hired, then you never understood what this rebuild was going to be all about in the first place.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, makoman said:

I think if you throw 88-90 there isn’t some mystical “it” that’s going to make you a major leaguer. You are going to need plus movement, command, secondaries, or deception, and really some combination of those things. Why can’t a model, which has inputs of things like movement and location and spin, tell us those things? I don’t think moxie is enough to make a straight 88 FB with no command play, so a model with the right inputs gets you most of the way there. A scout can confirm what the model says to finish things off, or help decide who the model looks at to begin with, or break ties in the model, or make makeup adjustments. I don’t think anyone thinks that scouts are obsolete. 

That’s my point. Most guys who don’t fit the model are ignored. A good scout can see details that a model might miss. I suppose a perfect model would miss nothing, but the model is only as good  as the questions that it is supposed to answer. A good scout can see things that the model doesn’t look at.

I am not a scout, so I have no idea what those things might be, But the point remains.

[Obando]

10 minutes ago, atomic said:

I just mentioned 2 guys the Astro's had when the current regime took over that they didn't value. Altuve and Keuchel.  Both do what you are saying that no one does anymore.  

If you are a lemming you won't succeed in baseball. 

That may be true, but baseball as a whole didn’t value Altuve & Keuchel at that time either.  The Astros used data to help make both of them better, and added a ton of value to the players and the team in the process.  When Luhnow, Mejdal and Elias arrived in Houston, Altuve was a good hitter for average, but hit for no power whatsoever, which limited his value.  They used data to help him tap into his power and become a perennial 20-25 HR hitter while maintaining and even improving his batting average.  Keuchel was nothing more than a back of the rotation pitcher at best that the Astros helped turn into an ace with the use of data.  If the Astros would have traded both of them to other organizations, it’s much less likely they would have turned into the players they became.  Sure, they messed up by releasing JD Martinez before giving him a real chance to show them the swing changes he made that helped turn him into the dominant slugger he has become, but they definitely learned from that mistake and it has made their process better because of it.  In fact, I would argue that it took making that mistake in order to  change their entire player development process and become the organization that they are today, in terms of being at the forefront of the data-oriented player development movement.

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, Philip said:

That’s my point. Most guys who don’t fit the model are ignored. A good scout can see details that a model might miss. I suppose a perfect model would miss nothing, but the model is only as good  as the questions that it is supposed to answer. A good scout can see things that the model doesn’t look at.

I am not a scout, so I have no idea what those things might be, But the point remains.

And a scout can get caught up in a good story and blow a top five pick on an older player who was throwing to the radar gun.

[HowAboutThat]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And a scout can get caught up in a good story and blow a top five pick on an older player who was throwing to the radar gun.

If by “throwing to the radar gun” you mean putting on a max effort because he knows somebody’s watching, Remember it’s not a skill, it is only an ability, and if you can throw hard, you can throw hard.

Besides, I would imagine the scouts look at the whole thing. The whole point of being a scout is  not just that you can evaluate better, but that you see more than the average Joe.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

If by “throwing to the radar gun” you mean putting on a max effort because he knows somebody’s watching, Remember it’s not a skill, it is only an ability, and if you can throw hard, you can throw hard.

Besides, I would imagine the scouts look at the whole thing. The whole point of being a scout is  not just that you can evaluate better, but that you see more than the average Joe.

If you throw with max effort to impress the scouts maybe you get hurt and top out at with 9.2 innings at AA?

If you want me to accept that scouts can "see details that a model might miss" you should be willing to accept that scouts can be fooled by things a model would catch.

[HowAboutThat]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you throw with max effort to impress the scouts maybe you get hurt and top out at with 9.2 innings at AA?

If you want me to accept that scouts can "see details that a model might miss" you should be willing to accept that scouts can be fooled by things a model would catch.

Oh I don’t disagree with that at all. I’m not contending that at all. I’m not suggesting that one is adequate without the other. I’m stressing exactly the opposite, which is that you have to have boots on the ground in addition to your computer model.

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

That’s my point. Most guys who don’t fit the model are ignored. A good scout can see details that a model might miss. I suppose a perfect model would miss nothing, but the model is only as good  as the questions that it is supposed to answer. A good scout can see things that the model doesn’t look at.

I am not a scout, so I have no idea what those things might be, But the point remains.

The statistical model is analyzing data gathered from high speed film, etc., not just speed of pitch, etc. The approach is to try to quantify things that can be accurately and repeatedly measured. There’s no voodoo. The cameras see everything the human eye can see in real time, but you can slow it down to millimeter movements and actually measure things like spin of the ball, see the exact placement of the fingers on the ball, measure the precise position and motion of arm and leg movement, etc. instead of two scouts saying, “free and easy delivery” or “violent” delivery or whatever and meaning or seeing slightly different things, teams now have biomechanics data from video.  I’m curious what do you think a scout watching say a high school pitcher or hitter is going to see that this approach misses? Also, it’s clear that human scouts do look at players, although maybe much more on video than live than in the past. 

 

Aside: I think there were multiple reports that Elias watched Rutschman in person and met him and his family before the draft. There’s clearly a human element in their picks, especially the top picks. 

[ThomasTomasz]

Another top exec out, and some other guys along the way.  I can't say I'm surprised.  Norton has been a part of the rot here as long as anyone else.  However, it's hard to make sweeping changes in one year, especially when Mike Elias was hired so late in the off-season.  I expect you will see some more changes before we get to the winter meetings.  People will be hired to fill these spots, and other positions that may not even exist yet.  A couple other guys are likely going to be out of jobs.  The minor league staffs are likely in for an overhaul. 

This season was all about getting a barometer reading on a variety of things, and then making changes at the start of the off-season.  That includes, coaching, scouting and other player development.  So far, this rebuild is tracking on the right path.  

[scOtt]

Fascinating thread! I have nothing to add to it. I mean, huge changes in the organization today pointing towards more huge changes coming in the future is fascinating enough. But reading all you guys' discussions on it (who know a BAZILLION times more than me!) is great stuff! GOD I love this place!

[OFFNY]

2 minutes ago, scOtt said:

 

Fascinating thread !!! I have nothing to add to it. 

o

 

"Pardon me, I have nothing to say."

 

George Carlin, 1988

 

o

[scOtt]

3 hours ago, Obando said:

If you read Astroball, and understand how Sig Mejdal’s draft system works, it factors in both traditional scouting and statistical analysis.  The draft system he built in St. Louis was called STOUT, which stands for stats and scout.  Sure, there is more predictive data available on college players, but it’s not like the Astros completely ignored high school players in their drafts.  The Luhnow-Mejdal-Elias team drafted Carlos Correa number 1 out of high school in 2012, and also took Lance McCullers & Rio Ruiz out of HS in the top 4 rounds of that draft.  They drafted Brady Aiken first overall out of HS in 2014, even though they didn’t sign him due to what turned out to be legit concerns about his elbow that were discovered after he was drafted.  They drafted Kyle Tucker out of HS within the top 5 picks in 2015, and they drafted Forrest Whitley in the 1st round out of HS in 2016.  So I think it’s pretty clear that the Astros had a pretty strong draft model that included assessment of high school players, and you can’t tell me they didn’t rely on scouts for feedback on these player, which is even more necessary for high school players with less accessible data available on them compared to college players.  Sig Mejdal and the Astros under Luhnow tried to make the draft more of a science than an art by incorporating a lot of data into their decisions, but that doesn’t mean that they ever ignored the scouts’ assessments in the field.  What Mike Elias did today is consistent with how the Astros operate, and is essentially all about making the scouting operation more efficient and cohesive to fit his vision.  He got rid of the scouts and a FO member that he didn’t think fit his philosophy, and stated that he will be hiring new scouts, analysts, and front office assistants that do fit his philosophy. I don’t see why anyone should have an issue with this, and if anyone didn’t see this eventually coming when Elias was hired, then you never understood what this rebuild was going to be all about in the first place.

IIRC one of Sig's minors in one of his many degrees was psyche based (can't remember.) I remember reading that he has something built into the "algorithm" as well that accounts for makeup and personality.

[Frobby]

This discussion has gotten far removed from the facts and should get back on course.    The Orioles are not implementing a system where a team gets rid of all its scouts and selects its players based solely on math.   Here is what Elias had to say:

“I wouldn’t characterize this as a reduction. We’re going to be adding head count and it’s very possible that by the end of our hiring cycle that the overall baseball operations head count is higher than when I came here. But yes, there are changes going on in the scouting business in terms of greater availability of information in general, video and data. It just changes the way that scouts do their job.”

This has been a delicate area for Elias, who wants to avoid the perception that he undervalues the role of today’s scouts.

“I’m a scout by trade, and a lot of these guys I’ve been scouting with for 12 years, and I spent five years as an area scout, so I have as much appreciation for what they do, what they offer, how they go about their jobs as anyone,” Elias said. “It’s not a profession that is going away, but it is changing. It’s been changing for 70 years, 80 years, and the information landscape changes, the player landscape changes and we need to adapt with that.”

The professional scouting side took a heavy hit today.

“We will continue to pro scout and do so heavily, but I think we will be seeing more cross-pollination of amateur scouting and pro scouting with the domestic scouts that we have,” Elias said.

“I will repeat that we will be hiring more domestic scouts in the next few months in preparation for next year’s drafts. We expect to have a lot of new blood come in and bolster our staff.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/08/elias-on-changes-in-scouting-and-front-office.html

 

[weams]

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/orioles-make-sweeping-personnel-changes

[sportsfan8703]

Congrats to @Luke-OH on the opportunity!