2019 #4 Prospect: Ryan Mountcastle - LF/1B

[interloper]

38 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Max value of 9/$55.5M.

Hopefully the Orioles have floated a similar offer to Mountcastle.

I would say the chances of this are about 0. And we all definitely know that, right? Even I do and I'm the most Elias-hopeful of any of us.

I hope Elias gets aggressive with signing up his young players in this way, but I don't think we're quite there yet at this stage.

[Just Regular]

38 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Would anyone be interested in signing Mountcastle to this deal?

I guess we should be a little above - Mountcastle 10 months younger and has the good AAA year to his credit.

[ChosenOne21]

White had a wRC+ of 132 while Mountcastle had 117. Still, Mountcastle is younger and did it at a higher level although White is like a 70 glove so there's that too

[weams]

31 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Mariners have terrible luck.  They probably just guaranteed that this guy is the next Jon Singleton.  

Does he smoke a lot?

[Moose Milligan]

I'd have to see what the average MLB first baseman gets paid before saying yes to a deal like that for Mountcastle.

Then again, I look at Chris Davis and I want to be like 

 

 

 

[MurphDogg]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

The Mariners gave Kyle Seager $100 million, And almost since he signed it he’s been mediocre. I don’t think this is a good idea but at least this guy is good on both sides of the ball.

Everyone says that Mountcastle is going to hit great. But nobody says he’s going to defend great or even adequately. The hope is that he can find “a defensive home.” I don’t think we should extend Trey, and I don’t think we should consider it with MC either.

Kyle Seager has not been mediocre. He has been worth an average of 3.4 WAR per season since signing the contract. He had 1 (one) mediocre season in 2018. If Seager hadn't signed that extension he would have hit free agency following the 2017 season and he surely would have gotten a much bigger deal than the 4/$74M that was remaining on his deal at that time (while not making much if any less in arbitration than the $26M he got from 2015-2017). Seager's contract has been an obvious success and to say otherwise is laughable.

Also, nobody thinks Mountcastle would have any trouble at first base, the only question is whether he will be able to play left field.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

No. I generally oppose long-term deals because nobody knows what’s going to happen in the long term, and once you get your pipeline going you will always have good players coming up through the ranks. Trade a guy when he has two remaining years and cycle in the new guy. The Mariners gave Kyle Seager $100 million, And almost since he signed it he’s been mediocre. I don’t think this is a good idea but at least this guy is good on both sides of the ball.

Everyone says that Mountcastle is going to hit great. But nobody says he’s going to defend great or even adequately. The hope is that he can find “a defensive home.” I don’t think we should extend Trey, and I don’t think we should consider it with MC either.

In my opinion, you are WAY too worried about Mountcastle’s defense.    He’s not some klutz out there.    He has a weak arm.    The fact that he played 3 seasons on the left side of the infield tells you that he has the athleticism to play 1B or COF at a reasonably good level.    
 

As to whether I’d lock him up now at that price, it’s a little tough to say.   If you think he’s likely to be about on the level with a Josh Bell or Trey Mancini, it’s probably worth the risk.    If you think he’s more of a Mitch Moreland level bat, then probably not.    
 

And before people start poo-pooing Mitch Moreland, the guy has had a respectable 10-year career in the majors and had a career .883 OPS in the minors.    Most top 100 prospects would love to have Moreland’s career.    

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

In my opinion, you are WAY too worried about Mountcastle’s defense.    He’s not some klutz out there.    He has a weak arm.    The fact that he played 3 seasons on the left side of the infield tells you that he has the athleticism to play 1B or COF at a reasonably good level.    

I have never seen the guy play at all. But I’ve read a lot of reports on him, and every single one of them commented negatively about his defense. The most encouraging comment I read Suggested that the glove “might” be playable in left field. As I said I haven’t seen him at all, and if his defense is as good as Trey’s  we can all live with that. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

I have never seen the guy play at all. But I’ve read a lot of reports on him, and every single one of them commented negatively about his defense. The most encouraging comment I read Suggested that the glove “might” be playable in left field. As I said I haven’t seen him at all, and if his defense is as good as Trey’s  we can all live with that. 

Here is what Tony had to say:

“Mountcastle was finally moved from the left side of the infield where his well below average arm was not going to play effectively at the major league level. He was first used at first base where he was a little stiff and tentative, but improved throughout the season. He was then moved out to left field and by August was playing it almost exclusively where he showed effective range and decent routes considering his inexperience. His arm plays up from left field where he showed an accurate arm to second base, but his throws home were still weak.“

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/06/ryan-mountcastle-lf-1b/

Here’s what Luke had to say (same link as above: “He’s going to be better than people think in LF.”

Here is what his manager had to say:

 

“He looked comfortable in left field,” Kendall said. “But he also played a much improved first base from the time he went over there in spring training. You are learning a new position at almost the highest level of baseball. He adapted well at first and I think he’ll continue to make strides if he plays there.

“In the outfield he looked more comfortable each day, and there was a learning environment each day. A mistake he might make that he doesn’t the next day. You can only take so many balls off a fungo bat. You have to be in a live situation and see the way the ball spins off the bat. I saw a lot of improvement and I was very encouraged at the end of the year, based on just the limited amount of games and how well he did.”

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/11/gary-kendall-on-ryan-mountcastles-special-year.html

Meanwhile, all these reports absolutely glow about his bat.  So, I repeat my view that you’re far too pessimistic IMO.

 

[interloper]

Things get a lot easier with Mountcastle after Davis is released (probably by 2021) and Mancini is traded (probably mid-2020). But even if Mancini isn't traded, you can still just cycle all these guys around the DH spot. There's no one really clamoring to be given 162 games in the corners or at DH. Santander has had health issues before so I'd rather not run him into the ground. 

[Philip]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here is what Tony had to say:

“Mountcastle was finally moved from the left side of the infield where his well below average arm was not going to play effectively at the major league level. He was first used at first base where he was a little stiff and tentative, but improved throughout the season. He was then moved out to left field and by August was playing it almost exclusively where he showed effective range and decent routes considering his inexperience. His arm plays up from left field where he showed an accurate arm to second base, but his throws home were still weak.“

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/06/ryan-mountcastle-lf-1b/

Here’s what Luke had to say (same link as above: “He’s going to be better than people think in LF.”

Here is what his manager had to say:

 

“He looked comfortable in left field,” Kendall said. “But he also played a much improved first base from the time he went over there in spring training. You are learning a new position at almost the highest level of baseball. He adapted well at first and I think he’ll continue to make strides if he plays there.

“In the outfield he looked more comfortable each day, and there was a learning environment each day. A mistake he might make that he doesn’t the next day. You can only take so many balls off a fungo bat. You have to be in a live situation and see the way the ball spins off the bat. I saw a lot of improvement and I was very encouraged at the end of the year, based on just the limited amount of games and how well he did.”

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/11/gary-kendall-on-ryan-mountcastles-special-year.html

Meanwhile, all these reports absolutely glow about his bat.  So, I repeat my view that you’re far too pessimistic IMO.

 

It is far better to be overly pessimistic than overly optimistic, I will be very happy if He shows that my pessimism is unwarranted. That would suit me just fine.

[weams]

26 minutes ago, Philip said:

It is far better to be overly pessimistic than overly optimistic, I will be very happy if He shows that my pessimism is unwarranted. That would suit me just fine.

Guy will rake. 

[Can_of_corn]

51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here is what Tony had to say:

“Mountcastle was finally moved from the left side of the infield where his well below average arm was not going to play effectively at the major league level. He was first used at first base where he was a little stiff and tentative, but improved throughout the season. He was then moved out to left field and by August was playing it almost exclusively where he showed effective range and decent routes considering his inexperience. His arm plays up from left field where he showed an accurate arm to second base, but his throws home were still weak.“

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/06/ryan-mountcastle-lf-1b/

Here’s what Luke had to say (same link as above: “He’s going to be better than people think in LF.”

Here is what his manager had to say:

 

“He looked comfortable in left field,” Kendall said. “But he also played a much improved first base from the time he went over there in spring training. You are learning a new position at almost the highest level of baseball. He adapted well at first and I think he’ll continue to make strides if he plays there.

“In the outfield he looked more comfortable each day, and there was a learning environment each day. A mistake he might make that he doesn’t the next day. You can only take so many balls off a fungo bat. You have to be in a live situation and see the way the ball spins off the bat. I saw a lot of improvement and I was very encouraged at the end of the year, based on just the limited amount of games and how well he did.”

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/11/gary-kendall-on-ryan-mountcastles-special-year.html

Meanwhile, all these reports absolutely glow about his bat.  So, I repeat my view that you’re far too pessimistic IMO.

 

Obviously he doesn't read what Tony and Luke have to say.

[weams]

22 hours ago, Frobby said:

In my opinion, you are WAY too worried about Mountcastle’s defense.    He’s not some klutz out there.    He has a weak arm.    The fact that he played 3 seasons on the left side of the infield tells you that he has the athleticism to play 1B or COF at a reasonably good level.    
 

As to whether I’d lock him up now at that price, it’s a little tough to say.   If you think he’s likely to be about on the level with a Josh Bell or Trey Mancini, it’s probably worth the risk.    If you think he’s more of a Mitch Moreland level bat, then probably not.    
 

And before people start poo-pooing Mitch Moreland, the guy has had a respectable 10-year career in the majors and had a career .883 OPS in the minors.    Most top 100 prospects would love to have Moreland’s career.    

Way too worried. Way to. 

[weams]

20 hours ago, Philip said:

It is far better to be overly pessimistic than overly optimistic, I will be very happy if He shows that my pessimism is unwarranted. That would suit me just fine.

No it isn't. Ask anyone who has succeeded.