My prediction for how the Davis saga ends

[interloper]

 

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Disclaimers:

• It's just my opinion and I'm just having some hypothetical/speculation fun. Your opinions are valid! 
• I'm fully aware I'm going out on a limb with a lot of this and I think of this mostly as a thought exercise. 
• Yes, I agree they should have already released him and it's a shame it's still an issue Elias/Hyde has to deal with. 

 

The failed contract of Chris Davis is one of, if not the, most complicated failed contracts that currently exists in the game today. Not only that, it's one of the most historically bad contracts the game has ever seen. This fact coupled with the Angelos' stance on contracts in general, the fact that the team is in no hurry to win games at present, and perhaps that it was Peter's last big deal all conspires into a potent mixture that has kept Chris Davis on the roster. Obviously, this sucks. It makes the Angelos brothers look bad, it makes Elias seem weaker, and it makes it seem like Peter still has a good deal of pull behind the scenes. Whether or not all or any of that is true, we will never truly know. Just my opinion on it: I tend to separate the Davis contract from anything else taking place. It's special. It's an unique anomaly not just for the Orioles but for the game overall. It's complicated.

And yet, it's not, from a purely roster/financial standpoint, right? You just eat the sunk cost and move on. While that's not happened yet, I don't necessarily fault the Angelos brothers or Elias on it at this time. Elias and Co. are constructing the scaffolding of the rebuild around Chris Davis. Despite him. He doesn't really matter for the moment. He can be easily cordoned off while the new ownership group supports the front office in making strides in development, international scouting, analytics, and drafting.

There's a case to be made that Davis could fulfill his entire contract through 2022. After all, that's only 2 more years after this season. Even with the arrival of Ryan Mountcastle expected this year, the team could (and probably will) trade Trey Mancini. They could further free up a spot by moving on from Renato Nunez. There are no other slugger 1B/DH prospects knocking on the door other than Mountcastle. If the Orioles aren't as close to being a decent club by 2022 as we hope - and they very well may not be - there's a chance Davis is indeed never released prior to the end of his contract. 

But I don't think that happens. What follows is my prediction of how this whole thing eventually plays out:

1. Chris Davis has reportedly worked on his approach starting at the end of the season during his lengthy stint on the bench and then continued that work this offseason. Whether or not you believe in Davis' offseason work ethic (I'm iffy on it myself) is secondary here. Elias has confirmed at least that he will be in spring training, that he's "on the team", and that Elias "takes his contract seriously". To me, that means we're getting at minimum another two months of the regular season to see what, if any, improvements Davis has been made.
2. The next step in my prediction assumes that it's clear by June that Davis has not improved. What follows is a benching similar to what we saw in 2019. Davis makes the occasional start while ceding the majority of time to Mountcastle, who I expect to be up by this time, and others. Hopefully, he avoids the frustration that boiled over last year into a dugout confrontation with Hyde, and remains the good dugout presence for younger guys that he is, by all accounts. In fact, I predict he DOES avoid those frustrations due to the fact that he begins to really see the writing on the wall.
3. Davis weathers another year of articles, reporter questions, Hyde/Elias dodgy defenses, booing, and criticism and finishes the 2020 season on the active roster. But it's different this time. He's starting to concede that his time in the game and on the Orioles is up. He's a sharp guy and he knows the team has to move on if they're going to get better. They need the roster space, and they need productive hitters. He wants the Orioles to be good, and after a third straight year of batting under .200, he knows the right thing to do is step aside.
4. I don't believe Davis will force the Orioles hand on a release once he truly believes he just doesn't have it anymore. That said, nor do I think he outright retires out of the good of his heart for the ownership group - that wouldn't look great to the Union, and really, he's earned that right. 
5. So.. what, then? I predict Davis will meet with ownership, Elias, and Boras and they'll come to an arrangement as unique as the Chris Davis problem itself. He is released. The remainder of Davis' contract (2 years, $34 million) will get restructured or deferred in some way that is better for the Orioles' financial books. The previously deferred portion of his contract remains as is. A decent portion of his remaining salary will be used by him in conjunction with the Orioles to create a charitable fund of some sort that focuses on child health or similar efforts Davis is known to support. Or perhaps it gets funneled into the current Orioles Charitable Fund (https://www.mlb.com/orioles/community/charitable-fund).
6. Davis then transitions to a role within the Orioles "front office" roughly defined as a community ambassador and charity rep. He'll fall under the "Special Advisors and Community Ambassadors" section of the front office (https://www.mlb.com/orioles/team/front-office) where Brian Roberts, Boog Powell, Eddie Murray, and Brooks Robinson live. He'll make appearance at charities, assist current players with their charitable efforts, and remain an active and visible participant as it pertains to Orioles philanthropy. He's a fun guy (or was when he was productive) and I think he'll use some of that humor and approachability he was known for to good effect in this area. 
7. And that's it. The Orioles get him off the roster after 2020, but instead of being a sad tale, they reach an agreement that both can feel good about. Davis/Boras still get the majority of what they're owed, but in a way that makes things easier on the Orioles going forward (something I think Davis does care about), while also continuing Davis' outstanding charitable legacy. He remains a part of something with the Orioles, and both he and the Orioles get out of this with some great PR puff pieces. They turn a bad (and often downright sad) situation into something positive for everyone, and those less fortunate will benefit in a big way. It will be one of the game's most significant charitable efforts, something the Orioles already have a great track record with. And Davis gets to control his legacy in the game by ending it with something positive. He'll never shake the "historically bad contract" thing, but he can feel good about meeting that head-on with "historically large charitable effort". Be visible, get in front of cameras and talk openly about it, have a press conference with Elias and the owners, and then put all that energy and money into something bigger and better than baseball. I think he will. 

 

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

It ends with Davis getting all his money. I’m not going to speculate anymore on when Davis isn’t on the 40 man roster, when most other teams would have done something by now. 

[interloper]

I encourage folks to read the whole OP. It's been kicking around my head for awhile and it was nice to get it written out. I'd love to hear thoughts. 

I believe something like this is definitely possible, if unlikely. But the ingredients are all there if each party is creative enough and willing. There don't seem to be many positive ways this can end, but this is one.

[Dipper9]

29 minutes ago, interloper said:

I encourage folks to read the whole OP. It's been kicking around my head for awhile and it was nice to get it written out. I'd love to hear thoughts. 

I believe something like this is definitely possible, if unlikely. But the ingredients are all there if each party is creative enough and willing. There don't seem to be many positive ways this can end, but this is one.

I read it and it makes sense.  Whether it occurs or not all depends on Davis.  

[Dan Stephens]

I think it all makes perfect sense. Something I have thought about for a while also. Even if Chris and/or his agent demand every last penny coming, wouldn't it make sense to move him to a role he is perfectly suited for (and one he would, I assume, enjoy) and away from the role that guarantees misery for everyone but his agent? 

Great opportunity to turn a huge negative into something of a feel-good positive. Well stated, OP.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Dan Stephens said:

I think it all makes perfect sense. Something I have thought about for a while also. Even if Chris and/or his agent demand every last penny coming, wouldn't it make sense to move him to a role he is perfectly suited for (and one he would, I assume, enjoy) and away from the role that guarantees misery for everyone but his agent? 

Great opportunity to turn a huge negative into something of a feel-good positive. Well stated, OP.

Thanks. I agree - he's going to get all his money. And he's going to donate some of it because he does that anyway. Why not make it sting a little less for both sides by creating an official role out of it. That way you're kind of paying him to do something and everyone benefits from the good press. And hopefully, larger than normal charitable chunk. 

[Can_of_corn]

All the kids can ask him about his PED suspension during a pennant race.  Fun for the whole family.

I'd rather they just paid him to go away.  He can come back in 2032 for the twentieth anniversary of the 2012 season.

[atomic]

I think the Davis saga ends in early October of 2022 when his current contract ends. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

I think the Davis saga ends in early October of 2022 when his current contract ends. 

I think 2037 when he gets his last check. 

[interloper]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

All the kids can ask him about his PED suspension during a pennant race.  Fun for the whole family.

I'd rather they just paid him to go away.  He can come back in 2032 for the twentieth anniversary of the 2012 season.

I think it's fair to say the PED thing is kind of water under the bridge for most fans considering we know exactly what the substance was and he owned up to it. Who cares at this point?

Just paying him to go away is most likely what will end up happening. But how is it not preferable to use a lot of that money to start something charitable in conjunction with the Orioles? 

[interloper]

9 minutes ago, atomic said:

I think the Davis saga ends in early October of 2022 when his current contract ends. 

A valid opinion. And, as I stated in the OP, something that's certainly likely. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

I think it's fair to say the PED thing is kind of water under the bridge for most fans considering we know exactly what the substance was and he owned up to it. Who cares at this point?

Just paying him to go away is most likely what will end up happening. But how is it not preferable to use a lot of that money to start something charitable in conjunction with the Orioles? 

Charitable sure, as a face of the franchise capacity?  No thanks.

I don't see the need to have Davis acing as a face of the franchise.

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Charitable sure, as a face of the franchise capacity?  No thanks.

I don't see the need to have Davis acing as a face of the franchise.

When did I say "face of the franchise"? That's not what I was saying at all. He'd have a moment of visibility/press when it kicked off, and then he'd probably be less visible than all of the rest of the current Community Ambassadors save for Eddie who we don't see that often. Show up at the odd event or charity ribbon-cutting, that's basically it. Create a role for him, sure, but I'm not saying parade him around like he's Mr. Oriole. 

[HowAboutThat]

Thank you for writing this, I think the big problem is “restructuring the contract”. No player or agent in baseball is going to allow for anything that involves Davis taking less than his contract value. If they defer it, they would almost certainly have to pay money on the deferment, which would end up costing the team more. 

 I think it is impossible for them to recover from the public relations fiasco, so there’s nothing to be gained by keeping him. We can only put it aside and say, “this is a really bad thing we’re not going to do this anymore.“

I strongly feel that the super rich have a Moral obligation to do what they can to help society. I know what I would do, and I am confident that Davis is going to do something as well, but he doesn’t need the team to be involved. Having said that, I agree with your timeline. The team is making its moves and basically ignoring Davis. He is already interfering with the roster, he is already producing nothing, except laughter, so they will release him when they choose to,  But I don’t think it will be the result of any modification of the contract, and I don’t think he’s going to except a position in the front office. He’s the symbol of that stupid past, whether deserved it or not, and keeping him around would be like continuing to meet your ex-wife for lunch every Tuesday for “old time’s sake”

nah. 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Philip
Oh gosh how much editing was needed! Yikes!

[HowAboutThat]

8 minutes ago, interloper said:

A valid opinion. And, as I stated in the OP, something that's certainly likely. 

I’m not sure it’s likely, right now his roster spot is wasted space. When they need it, they will dump him.