What will it take to make Mychal Givens good again?

[wildcard]

I am not saying I have the answer but I will throw out a few areas to discussion.

When was Givens good?

That is a harder question then one might think.  Givens broke in in 2015  with a 1.73 ERA and a 1.80 FIP in 30 innings.  In 2016 the has a 3.15 ERA and a 3.31 FIP  in 74.2 IP and a 8-2 record.      In 2017 he had his best ERA of 2.75 but his FIP raised to 3.72 with a record on 8-1  in 78.2 IP.   Some would say that in 2016 and 2017 Givens was a vulture meaning a pitcher that comes into a game when the O's are losing or tie and pitches well to get the win.  Givens gave up 10 homers in 2017.

In 2018 Givens record was bad (0-7) and he ERA raised to 3.99 but he had is best FIP year at 3.07  and lowered his homers to 4 in 76.2 IP.  Some who like the newer stats would say this is his best year.

2019 fell apart.   2-6 record,  4.57 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 13 homers in 63 IP.  

So you can tell me.  Was 2017 or 2018 his best season?

Did his stuff change?

Brooks Baseball would indicate that it has not.  His fastball has been 95-96 throughout his career.  His change and slider speeds have remained the same.  I will let posters better that me say whether they have seen a change.

Moving to later innings

Over his career Givens has moved from a 6-7th inning pitcher to a 8th inning and last year 9th inning pitchers.   He seem to have gotten worse has he move later in the game.  His career ERA is 6th inning (3.19), 7th (2.32), 8th (3.51) and 9th (4.54).  Homers go from 4 or 5 in the 6th and 7th innings to 12 in each on the 8th and 9th innings in his career.  He had problems in the 8th in in 2017 (4.07 ERA) and 2018 (5.55 ERA).  Last year in 9th inning he had a 6.69 ERA.

Clearly Givens has been better in the 6th and 7th innings.

Pitching coaches

In Givens best years 2017-18 McDowell and Mills were his coaches.   Last year it was Brocail and Wasdin.   Maybe he didn't work well with them.  I don't know.   But Elias/Hyde  brought Holmes and Holt into the mix this season.   Maybe that will help.

Defense

The infield defense has gotten worse in the last few years.  In 2017 the team has Manny, Hardy and Schoop for most of the season.  By 2019 it was Ruiz, Martin, Villar, and Alberto.   Maybe Givens felt he had to strike out batters is key situations rather than place the ball in play.

Summary

Givens stuff appears to be as good as ever.  Moving to the 8th and 9th innings has not helped his numbers.   The change of pitching coaches and defense could be contributing factors.   With Harvey, Bleier and maybe Carroll available for the late inning maybe moving Givens to the earlier innings helps him in 2020.   

What is your take?

[Can_of_corn]

Quote

 Givens broke in in 2015  with a 1.73 ERA and a 1.80 FIP in 30 innings.  In 2016 the has a 3.15 ERA and a 3.31 FIP  in 74.2 IP and a 8-2 record.      In 2017 he had his best ERA of 2.75 but his FIP raised to 3.72 with a record on 8-1  in 78.2 IP.  

Wait, what?

 

This looks to be pretty normal relief pitcher variance to me. 

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Wait, what?

 

This looks to be pretty normal relief pitcher variance to me. 

2015 was only 30 innings.   After that he has maintained  a heavier load of innings.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

2015 was only 30 innings.   After that he has maintained  a heavier load of innings.

You of all people are factoring in a small sample size?

I'm not saying you shouldn't but you should say that you are.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

Good writeup, thanks for posting. Sorry you gotta deal with Corn only wanting to argue over one line in a good, thought-out post.

Like you mentioned, his home runs were way up last year - which was the big problem for him. That might be because of him, the juiced ball, or both. If he can limit damage from the long ball in 2020, I think we'll see him return closer to his 2018 form.

Hyde also rode him pretty hard at the beginning of the season and the results weren't great. Quite honestly, I thought Hyde managed the bullpen poorly for the first part of 2019 - might be part of Givens' issues as well.

[Frobby]

Essentially, it’s the gopher balls.   18 of the 35 runs he allowed were on homers.    He allows very few hits per inning, his K rate was a career best.    So basically, he needs to avoid the mistake pitch.    

How does he do that exactly?   Damned if I know.    His delivery creates a huge amount of deception but doesn’t lend itself to pinpoint command.    My feeling is that sometimes the mistake pitches are just random chance, and he might do better this year for no particular reason because he just happens to leave fewer pitches in terrible spots this year.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

Good writeup, thanks for posting. Sorry you gotta deal with Corn only wanting to argue over one line in a good, thought-out post.

Like you mentioned, his home runs were way up last year - which was the big problem for him. That might be because of him, the juiced ball, or both. If he can limit damage from the long ball in 2020, I think we'll see him return closer to his 2018 form.

Hyde also rode him pretty hard at the beginning of the season and the results weren't great. Quite honestly, I thought Hyde managed the bullpen poorly for the first part of 2019 - might be part of Givens' issues as well.

You don't see the irony of Wildcard dismissing data for being too small a sample size?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I’m going to agree with Corn that 2015 can probably be explained to small sample size. The one thing I do notice is Givens BB/9 is 1.8 in 2015 compared to his career average of 3.4.

Did the league adjust after Givens 2015 rookie season or did he change anything with his delivery? Another thing to keep in mind baseballs seem more lively now then when Givens first broke into MLB.

[Chuck A]

I do believe that the confidence in the defense behind you comes into play, mainly the mindset of having to strike someone out rather than put a ball in play.  However, Hyde really was a work in progress with getting to know his team (and still will be to a point this season with the amount of turnover expected).  The inflated ERA and different usage really is to be expected in a rebuild though.  With the expected improvement in the defense up the middle maybe that will revert back to previous numbers.  That is my expectation anyway.  Not low 3's ERA but high 3-low 4 ERA is what I am expecting.  This team is going to be hard pressed to avoid 100 losses again.  Honestly, 99 losses should be seen as a major improvement.

[sportsfan8703]

9th vs 6th innings.  More pressure.  You can't hand pick the part of the lineups.  Teams pinch hit more.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

9th vs 6th innings.  More pressure.  You can't hand pick the part of the lineups.  Teams pinch hit more.  

Yes this also makes a difference. Tommy “home run” Hunter was originally the closer in 2014 before it became obvious he couldn’t handle pitching the 9th inning.

[wildcard]

37 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I’m going to agree with Corn that 2015 can probably be explained to small sample size. The one thing I do notice is Givens BB/9 is 1.8 in 2015 compared to his career average of 3.4.

Did the league adjust after Givens 2015 rookie season or did he change anything with his delivery? Another thing to keep in mind baseballs seem more lively now then when Givens first broke into MLB.

I don't think what Givens did in 2015 should be the focus on how to get him to improve.  It was too long ago and there is plenty on other data to evaluate.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Yes this also makes a difference. Tommy “home run” Hunter was originally the closer in 2014 before it became obvious he couldn’t handle pitching the 9th inning.

We were just discussing how 30 IP isn't a large enough sample size.  I'm guessing Hunter's time as a closer would also count as not enough of a sample size to make any real determination.

[sportsfan8703]

Givens will probably look like the Givens of old once he is traded to a contender and he's back in his role of pitching in the 6th/7th inning vs RHH parts of the lineup.  

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Givens will probably look like the Givens of old once he is traded to a contender and he's back in his role of pitching in the 6th/7th inning vs RHH parts of the lineup.  

But if the O's want a decent return they may have to get him pitching better before he is traded.