The deadline is looming...Is Elias done?

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I agree with this 100%

Did you read what he said?  It's absolute nonsense.  He literally said that a minor salary dump that happens all the time every year is worse than, say, the Glenn Davis trade of three entire good/great careers for nothing.

[CarrRun49]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What?  Elias traded a random player making about $10M for a minor leaguer who essentially plays for free.  They saved $10M and they didn't impact the future competitiveness of the Baltimore Orioles at all, unless you really wanted that 22nd win this year.  And even that's arguable in hindsight since he's been playing terribly in Miami.

He's a .5 WAR player every year that fluked into a good year here.

[Aristotelian]

To be honest, if there is any trade so far with disappointing return I'd have to say it was Bundy. He didn't really pitch well for us, but we could have held onto him for another year in hopes he might build value. Would have been worth a couple mil to try. 

[DrungoHazewood]

9 minutes ago, CarrRun49 said:

He's a .5 WAR player every year that fluked into a good year here.

That's an exaggeration.  I would have projected him to something like 2.5 wins this year in a normal season, and about $10M in arb.  So technically ~$10M in surplus value, but clearly it was a challenge to get anyone to pay that kind of return in prospects last year.  So Elias settled on a salary dump so they could use the cash elsewhere.

[Frobby]

The extreme positions being taken on both sides of this debate are a bit much.   I do think Elias misplayed his hand a bit by making it too obvious that the O’s were intent on dumping Villar by the non tender deadline.    Is it the worst trade of all time?    Not hardly.   Is Villar a .5 WAR player?   No, he’s plainly been better than that in a typical year.     But, I do think there’s evidence that his mental mistakes and things that don’t show up in the box score make him somewhat less valuable than the numbers might suggest.   

In the end, Conine appears to be a significantly better prospect than Easton, so no matter how you view Villar, it’s reasonable to think that the trade Elias made was not well executed or well timed. 
 

[sportsfan8703]

I have a feeling that these PTBNL from the trades will most likely be 2019 NCAA draftees. Probably SP. Elias was all over that draft. We saw him go that direction in the Villar and Bundy trade. 
 

So if you want to play detective, look for College SP taken in rounds 5-15ish by the teams that owe us a PTBNL. 

[Roll Tide]

24 minutes ago, CarrRun49 said:

He's a .5 WAR player every year that fluked into a good year here.

If you are talking about Villar this post is just plain wrong! 
 

In 2 seasons in Baltimore he was worth 5.1 war ....In the previous 3 season in Milwaukee  he was worth 4.5. Other than 2017 he has better batter than .5 WAR every season. His season was only lucky because it meets your story line! He also had  a 3.2 WAR season in 2016.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

If you are talking about Villar this post is just plain wrong! 
 

In 2 seasons in Baltimore he was worth 5.1 war ....In the previous 3 season in Milwaukee  he was worth 4.5. Other than 2017 he has better batter than .5 WAR every season. His season was only lucky because it meets your story line! He also had  a 3.2 WAR season in 2016.

If you average his position and yours you get pretty close to the truth.

[CarrRun49]

10 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

If you are talking about Villar this post is just plain wrong! 
 

In 2 seasons in Baltimore he was worth 5.1 war ....In the previous 3 season in Milwaukee  he was worth 4.5. Other than 2017 he has better batter than .5 WAR every season. His season was only lucky because it meets your story line! He also had  a 3.2 WAR season in 2016.

Season	Team	Batting	Base Running	Fielding	Positional	Offense	Defense	League	Replacement	RAR	WAR	Dollars	Salary
2013	Astros	-5.8	0.2	-8.4	2.6	-5.6	-5.8	0.9	6.9	-3.6	-0.4	-$2.9
2014	Astros	-7.7	2.8	-6.5	3.1	-4.9	-3.5	0.9	8.2	0.7	0.1	$0.6
2015	Astros	1.6	0.2	-4.5	0.5	1.7	-4.0	0.4	3.7	1.9	0.2	$1.6
2016	Brewers	16.4	3.5	-17.2	5.4	19.9	-11.8	0.6	20.5	29.2	3.0	$23.9
2017	Brewers	-15.8	2.6	-6.6	1.3	-13.3	-5.4	0.8	13.5	-4.3	-0.4	-$3.4
2018	2 Teams	-4.1	3.3	1.3	2.3	-0.8	3.6	1.2	15.4	19.4	2.0	$15.9
2019	Orioles	6.5	10.5	-6.0	4.5	17.0	-1.4	2.8	22.5	40.8	4.0	$31.7
2020	Marlins	-2.1	-0.2	0.4	0.4	-2.2	0.8	-0.5	4.1	2.2	0.2	$1.7

 

Weird

[CarrRun49]

I would say a guy who had a previous combined war from 2013-2018 (6 Years) of 4.5, fluked into a 4.0 WAR season in 2019.  I regret my previous post of him being worth .5 per game, as it should have said .75. 

[Roll Tide]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The extreme positions being taken on both sides of this debate are a bit much.   I do think Elias misplayed his hand a bit by making it too obvious that the O’s were intent on dumping Villar by the non tender deadline.    Is it the worst trade of all time?    Not hardly.   Is Villar a .5 WAR player?   No, he’s plainly been better than that in a typical year.     But, I do think there’s evidence that his mental mistakes and things that don’t show up in the box score make him somewhat less valuable than the numbers might suggest.   

In the end, Conine appears to be a significantly better prospect than Easton, so no matter how you view Villar, it’s reasonable to think that the trade Elias made was not well executed or well timed. 
 

I agree that he misplayed his hand and I’m willing to give him a pass for it. But, I don’t think my position is extreme, I think there is a group that gives Elias way too much love because he’s the O’s GM. 
 

Honestly, Givens is the first trade that I liked. The others made this season will have to be measured later.

With Villar, the Orioles traded one of their best performing player last year for the equivalent of a lottery ticket that 99.9999999% ends up being nothing of value. No offense to MR Eason .... Villar is a hustle ball player and sometimes doing so turns into a headscratcher mistake that we all shake our head at. That’s better than have all station to station guys that can’t force the action.

Elias misplayed his hand .... I’m tired of hearing the $10 million as an excuse. That money won’t be saved and used later. It presented a good player that was fun to watch most of the time. I prefer him leading off to Alberto. Bottom line....once the mistake was made they should’ve just kept him and waited for a better opportunity. 

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, CarrRun49 said:

I would say a guy who had a previous combined war from 2013-2018 (6 Years) of 4.5, fluked into a 4.0 WAR season in 2019.  I regret my previous post of him being worth .5 per game, as it should have said .75. 

C'mon, you're not helping our case.  Villar's first full year in the majors was 2016.  From then through 2019 he was worth over two wins a season, including a 3.0 and 4.0.  He's a solid, average-plus player.

[Sports Guy]

I never understood the angst for the Villar trade.  What do you think keeping him would have accomplished?

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

But, I don’t think my position is extreme...

Well of course it is.  You said you agreed 100% with the statement that the Villar deal was one of the worst trades in history.  It was trading two hypothetical wins for likely zero.  There have to be 100 more consequential trades every year for the past century.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I never understood the angst for the Villar trade.  What do you think keeping him would have accomplished?

Six more hours of hypothetically contending in 2020 while subtracting $10M from the budget.