How far is Baumann behind Kremer in development?

[murph]

11 hours ago, weams said:

Is Baumann done being a hurt pitcher?

Yes.  And the Ravens are going to the super bowl and the Terps are making the big dance and the O’s are having a .500 or better season.  And you all think Wildcard is optimistic.   Pfft.  

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, murph said:

Yes.  And the Ravens are going to the super bowl and the Terps are making the big dance and the O’s are having a .500 or better season.  And you all think Wildcard is optimistic.   Pfft.  

You the man!

[Aristotelian]

On 1/15/2021 at 3:52 PM, LookinUp said:

No. If he's healthy he wins a rotation spot in AAA and a call-up after we get another year of control. He's exactly the type you hold back for a couple of months to gain extra control.

Exactly. Late season call up, *especially* if he's good. I would be shocked if he makes the opening day rotation. Just not Elias's MO. 

[Tony-OH]

On 1/15/2021 at 3:34 PM, wildcard said:

Dean Kremer enters ST with a rotation spot.  Its his to lose.  He pitched  84 innings is AA with an ERA of 2.98.  He had 4 starts in AAA where he had an ERA over 8.00.  That got him time at the alternate site and a call up for 4 starts in the majors.

Micheal Baumann pitched 70 innings at AA to an ERA of 2.31.  He spent last season at the alternate site.   If he is healthy in ST,   can he win a rotation spot out of ST?

If Baumann doesn't get hurt, I believe he would have gotten that call up instead of Kremer based on what I heard about them at the time. While Kremer does have a starting spot to lose at this point, I think Baumann could end up the 5th starter as well in this rotation if he's healthy and pitches well this spring.

[Tony-OH]

On 1/15/2021 at 4:24 PM, MurphDogg said:

You're right, it is just AA and A that has been announced as delayed. I guess Adley Rutschman will be the only one getting himself an extra long spring training, since they want him to start at AA.

I wonder if they will push Rutschman to AAA to get him extra PAs? It's not like there are prospects in his way.

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Exactly. Late season call up, *especially* if he's good. I would be shocked if he makes the opening day rotation. Just not Elias's MO. 

He's 25 years old and will be 31 when he's eligible for free agency. I doubt Elias is worried about  holding him back to get an extra year of control. The missed season has put a lot of what Elias typically has done in question.

[LookinUp]

10 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

He's 25 years old and will be 31 when he's eligible for free agency. I doubt Elias is worried about  holding him back to get an extra year of control. The missed season has put a lot of what Elias typically has done in question.

Can you elaborate on what you mean with the bolded part? Genuinely asking.

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

Can you elaborate on what you mean with the bolded part? Genuinely asking.

Not Tony, but virtually our entire minor league system is one year older and had no organized baseball last year.  For those players, it was a "missed season."  Yet they are still a year older than you would have liked at this point in their careers.  So, some may be moved along faster than they would have to make up for the lost time.

[Tony-OH]

54 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Can you elaborate on what you mean with the bolded part? Genuinely asking.

Elias has typically been very methodical when it comes to promotions once a player hits A-ball and he did not show any inclination to "rush" a player up the chain or to the big leagues before putting in some time and success at a previous level.

Michael Baumann has just 13 AA appearances (70 IP) so it's easy to just think Elias would want him to have success at AAA before having him compete for a big league job. One could also think that Elias would prefer an extra year of control for a pitcher with the upside of Baumann. 

My argument to that is two fold with Baumann. First, Baumann will pitch at 25 years old next year which means he'll be 31 when he's eligible for free agency. That to me suggests that player control will not be an issue. The second part is that Baumann was considered by several observers as the best pitcher at the alternate camp before coming down with elbow discomfort.

To me, those were like AAA starts with the talent level of the hitters in camp for the most part so in Elias' head, he could be thinking he's gotten that AAA experience.

The rotation this year barring injury should start with Means and Cobb, with Akin and Kremer having the inside track to the next two spots. Saying that, it's not like akin and Kremer can come into camp and just be terrible and get a spot, so I'd say they have spots as long as they don't implode in the spring. 

The last spot has these candidates right now:
Zimmermann
Baumann
Jorge Lopez
Ashton Goudeau
Mac Sceroler
Alexander Wells

Baumann is clearly the best pitcher of these options though I think Zimmemann is better than what we saw last year since he had missed some time due to COVID along with the long layoff from the spring where he was throwing the ball well.

One more thing about Elias doing things out of his norm is that AA and A ball will begin about a month late due to COVID concerns at spring training. This means we could see some players, potentially Rutschman, jumped  to AAA in order to get them playing time. Rutschman was reportedly one of the best hitters at the alternate camp against the upper level pitching so it might not be a stretch to see him start the year in Norfolk and if he's not doing well, moved back to Bowie when their season starts.

 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Elias has typically been very methodical when it comes to promotions once a player hits A-ball and he did not show any inclination to "rush" a player up the chain or to the big leagues before putting in some time and success at a previous level.

Michael Baumann has just 13 AA appearances (70 IP) so it's easy to just think Elias would want him to have success at AAA before having him compete for a big league job. One could also think that Elias would prefer an extra year of control for a pitcher with the upside of Baumann. 

My argument to that is two fold with Baumann. First, Baumann will pitch at 25 years old next year which means he'll be 31 when he's eligible for free agency. That to me suggests that player control will not be an issue. The second part is that Baumann was considered by several observers as the best pitcher at the alternate camp before coming down with elbow discomfort.

To me, those were like AAA starts with the talent level of the hitters in camp for the most part so in Elias' head, he could be thinking he's gotten that AAA experience.

The rotation this year barring injury should start with Means and Cobb, with Akin and Kremer having the inside track to the next two spots. Saying that, it's not like akin and Kremer can come into camp and just be terrible and get a spot, so I'd say they have spots as long as they don't implode in the spring. 

The last spot has these candidates right now:
Zimmermann
Baumann
Jorge Lopez
Ashton Goudeau
Mac Sceroler
Alexander Wells

Baumann is clearly the best pitcher of these options though I think Zimmemann is better than what we saw last year since he had missed some time due to COVID along with the long layoff from the spring where he was throwing the ball well.

One more thing about Elias doing things out of his norm is that AA and A ball will begin about a month late due to COVID concerns at spring training. This means we could see some players, potentially Rutschman, jumped  to AAA in order to get them playing time. Rutschman was reportedly one of the best hitters at the alternate camp against the upper level pitching so it might not be a stretch to see him start the year in Norfolk and if he's not doing well, moved back to Bowie when their season starts.

 

In other words, why the hell not?  You already say you don’t care about winning games in 2021, so why some dime a dozen, bargain basement pitcher when you can go with what you have?

And before someone says it, no this isn’t “rushing” Baumann.

[glenn__davis]

I really don't think service time games should ever be much of a concern for a pitcher.  If they're ready, get them up here.  Of course, that also assumes that winning games at the MLB level is important you, which is clearly not the case for the 2021 Orioles.

As others have mentioned I would think Elias would want Baumann to see time at AAA regardless of service time issues.  I think you see him pitch there for about half the season (depending on what happens with the minors) and then brought up in the 2nd half if he's effective.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Elias has typically been very methodical when it comes to promotions once a player hits A-ball and he did not show any inclination to "rush" a player up the chain or to the big leagues before putting in some time and success at a previous level.

Michael Baumann has just 13 AA appearances (70 IP) so it's easy to just think Elias would want him to have success at AAA before having him compete for a big league job. One could also think that Elias would prefer an extra year of control for a pitcher with the upside of Baumann. 

My argument to that is two fold with Baumann. First, Baumann will pitch at 25 years old next year which means he'll be 31 when he's eligible for free agency. That to me suggests that player control will not be an issue. The second part is that Baumann was considered by several observers as the best pitcher at the alternate camp before coming down with elbow discomfort.

To me, those were like AAA starts with the talent level of the hitters in camp for the most part so in Elias' head, he could be thinking he's gotten that AAA experience.

The rotation this year barring injury should start with Means and Cobb, with Akin and Kremer having the inside track to the next two spots. Saying that, it's not like akin and Kremer can come into camp and just be terrible and get a spot, so I'd say they have spots as long as they don't implode in the spring. 

The last spot has these candidates right now:
Zimmermann
Baumann
Jorge Lopez
Ashton Goudeau
Mac Sceroler
Alexander Wells

Baumann is clearly the best pitcher of these options though I think Zimmemann is better than what we saw last year since he had missed some time due to COVID along with the long layoff from the spring where he was throwing the ball well.

One more thing about Elias doing things out of his norm is that AA and A ball will begin about a month late due to COVID concerns at spring training. This means we could see some players, potentially Rutschman, jumped  to AAA in order to get them playing time. Rutschman was reportedly one of the best hitters at the alternate camp against the upper level pitching so it might not be a stretch to see him start the year in Norfolk and if he's not doing well, moved back to Bowie when their season starts.

 

I understand your perspective, but I don't think I'd handle it that way if I were Elias in the context of this team (not a contender). Zimmermann could get a shot and so could the rule V guys. I would only promote Baumann for that role if the other guys clearly don't belong. 

I know he'll be 31, but I'd still value that year with a high-upside arm. 

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I understand your perspective, but I don't think I'd handle it that way if I were Elias in the context of this team (not a contender). Zimmermann could get a shot and so could the rule V guys. I would only promote Baumann for that role if the other guys clearly don't belong. 

I know he'll be 31, but I'd still value that year with a high-upside arm. 

We'll see, but I just don't see Elias concerned over control six years from now with a 25-year old. Plus, we don't know what the next bargaining agreement will hold for free agency or arbitration eligibility. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

We'll see, but I just don't see Elias concerned over control six years from now with a 25-year old. Plus, we don't know what the next bargaining agreement will hold for free agency or arbitration eligibility. 

Elias seems very concerned about what happens 6 years from now.   That is what signing 16 year old international players is all about.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias seems very concerned about what happens 6 years from now.   That is what signing 16 year old international players is all about.

Ummm..this really has nothing to do with Tony’s point about a 31 y/o pitcher’s service time.