TT: Rotation "horserace" becomes clearer

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Sure but my point is that even if Lopez and Harvey have around the same upside in terms of production, I'm banking on the younger/healthier guy to be more reliable for a full 162 games. That's even more valuable this year and I think we can agree there.  I personally would like both Harvey and Lopez to make the team and have the O's get creative in how they work their rotation. That includes Zimmermann being a factor as well. If Harvey holds velocity over his next few starts and doesn't get lit up, I think he's in the rotation. I just expect Lopez to play a huge part as well. 

1) Why is Lopez healthier?  What evidence exists that he is healthier than Harvey?  We have heard nothing about Harvey being in bad health.

2). I don’t see Lopez being more reliable at all.  Even if he stays healthy this year and Harvey doesn’t, Lopez isn’t going to pitch well, so who cares?   100 -130 innings of 5.5+ ERA baseball isn’t something I want to rely on.

3) For one season, I’m not worried about age especially when you factor in that neither player is part of the future of the rotation.

 

For any of your arguments here to hold water, Lopez would have to be someone you feel confident in giving him the ball every 5 days.  I don’t see how anyone can feel that way.

[LTO's]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

1) Why is Lopez healthier?  What evidence exists that he is healthier than Harvey?  We have heard nothing about Harvey being in bad health.

Harvey has had two major injuries and has been extremely ineffective in the major leagues since those injuries. Do you know how many pitchers have gone to these driveline type places, "improved" their stuff and seen hardly any change? It literally happened to Harvey himself in KC. Lopez has thrown 100 more innings than Harvey over the past two years and has had no recent injury issues. They may both be healthy now but if i'm projecting one to finish the season healthy, it's Lopez. Not even close. 

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

For any of your arguments here to hold water, Lopez would have to be someone you feel confident in giving him the ball every 5 days.  I don’t see how anyone can feel that way.

Define "confident." I'm confident he can take the ball every 5 days and throw a ton of pitches to varying degrees of effectiveness. I'm not confident Harvey can do that given his age, injury history, lack of recent innings and lack of success. His numbers over the past two years have been worse than Lopez's which are already bad. They could even piggyback each other every 5th day. Who knows what the Orioles will do, but to act like Harvey being productive is less of a longshot than Lopez is quite a stance. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Harvey has had two major injuries and has been extremely ineffective in the major leagues since those injuries. Do you know how many pitchers have gone to these driveline type places, "improved" their stuff and seen hardly any change? It literally happened to Harvey himself in KC. Lopez has thrown 100 more innings than Harvey over the past two years and has had no recent injury issues. They may both be healthy now but if i'm projecting one to finish the season healthy, it's Lopez. Not even close. 

Define "confident." I'm confident he can take the ball every 5 days and throw a ton of pitches to varying degrees of effectiveness. I'm not confident Harvey can do that given his age, injury history, lack of recent innings and lack of success. His numbers over the past two years have been worse than Lopez's which are already bad. They could even piggyback each other every 5th day. Who knows what the Orioles will do, but to act like Harvey being productive is less of a longshot than Lopez is quite a stance. 

1). I agree with you that Lopez is more likely to be healthy.  But health isn’t an issue for either one right now and you were inferring that it was.

2) I’m not  predicting anything for Harvey.  I’m saying he possesses an upside that Lopez doesn’t even if the chances of him reaching that upside are small.  Lopez is a terrible option for a starter.  

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

 

2) I’m not  predicting anything for Harvey.  I’m saying he possesses an upside that Lopez doesn’t even if the chances of him reaching that upside are small.  Lopez is a terrible option for a starter.  

All anyone has to do is look at the video of Harvey's fastball/slider/sinker whatever that was that was posted a few days ago.  Lopez probably couldn't do that on his best day pitching, ever.  And Harvey is a guy coming back from a lot of stuff and trying to get his career back on track, it's not like it's peak stuff.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

All anyone has to do is look at the video of Harvey's fastball/slider/sinker whatever that was that was posted a few days ago.  Lopez probably couldn't do that on his best day pitching, ever.  And Harvey is a guy coming back from a lot of stuff and trying to get his career back on track, it's not like it's peak stuff.  

Right..and I’m not saying we found something in Harvey.  It’s far more likely he is cut by June than he ends the year in the rotation.

But there is a potential upside to him that we don’t have with the other “journeyman” pitchers vying for a spot.  
 

He may be destined for the pen.  That may be what’s best for him long term but we should find that out if he is looking that good.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Right..and I’m not saying we found something in Harvey.  It’s far more likely he is cut by June than he ends the year in the rotation.

But there is a potential upside to him that we don’t have with the other “journeyman” pitchers vying for a spot.  
 

He may be destined for the pen.  That may be what’s best for him long term but we should find that out if he is looking that good.

Totally agree.  If we're going to give a guy a shot to reclaim some former glory, I'd want it to be Harvey.  Felix doesn't have anymore velocity....Harvey at least looks to still have some power stuff.

Above all I'd rather see a prospect get the rotation spot but if they're insisting on carrying a veteran guy, I'd rather see Harvey before a guy like Lopez, LeBlanc, etc.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Totally agree.  If we're going to give a guy a shot to reclaim some former glory, I'd want it to be Harvey.  Felix doesn't have anymore velocity....Harvey at least looks to still have some power stuff.

Above all I'd rather see a prospect get the rotation spot but if they're insisting on carrying a veteran guy, I'd rather see Harvey before a guy like Lopez, LeBlanc, etc.

Right and as of today, Harvey making the rotation doesn’t prevent any of our prospects from making it unless you feel Lowther is ready.  Lowther probably doesn’t have have much to prove in the minors but it’s not hateful to send him down and see what Harvey gives us.

I would like to see the rotation be Means, Kremer, Akin, Harvey and Zimmerman. I think that is our “best case scenario” as of right now.

[LTO's]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

All anyone has to do is look at the video of Harvey's fastball/slider/sinker whatever that was that was posted a few days ago.  Lopez probably couldn't do that on his best day pitching, ever.  And Harvey is a guy coming back from a lot of stuff and trying to get his career back on track, it's not like it's peak stuff.  

I'm pretty sure Lopez's average velocity is higher than Harvey's and he has 11 Ks this spring compared to Harvey's four so he definitely can do that. I've watched Lopez multiple times recently and he's probably had the best spring of any starting candidate. Lopez is a guy with former prospect pedigree.  He might not have a ton of upside anymore but it's not like he's Ariel Miranda or some total no name farm hand getting his chance at a cup of coffee. What has happened more often, a former top prospect harnessing his stuff with another team or a 31 year old with multiple surgeries and decreasing stuff having a good year with his 5th team in 3 years? In any event, I'd like to see them both get a chance to start or at least get a lot of burn coming out of the pen. They've earned it this spring. 

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I'm pretty sure Lopez's average velocity is higher than Harvey's and he has 11 Ks this spring compared to Harvey's four so he definitely can do that. I've watched Lopez multiple times recently and he's probably had the best spring of any starting candidate. Lopez is a guy with former prospect pedigree.  He might not have a ton of upside anymore but it's not like he's Ariel Miranda or some total no name farm hand getting his chance at a cup of coffee. What has happened more often, a former top prospect harnessing his stuff with another team or a 31 year old with multiple surgeries and decreasing stuff having a good year with his 5th team in 3 years? In any event, I'd like to see them both get a chance to start or at least get a lot of burn coming out of the pen. They've earned it this spring. 

If you looks at the statcast information available for a few of Lopez's outing and they are very similar to his stuff from last year. He's the same guy so I don't take anything out of his spring stats, especially since he's not gone more than three innings. Saying that, I do think he's worth a look in relief where he can add some length to the pen. 

I see him making the team but unless Harvey gets hurt, I see him in the pen instead of the rotation.

[interloper]

Re: Lopez, Hyde mentioned in a post-game that it's all about attacking/aggressiveness/tempo with Lopez. I think we can all see he has pretty good stuff. He was really sunk last year by his final outing in which he allowed 8 ER. He otherwise may have finished the year with a 5ish ERA, which, for a small sample season pitching in the AL East might not have seemed all that bad. 

I think this year he has more success in long relief appearances with a renewed focus on staying on the attack. 

[Moose Milligan]

30 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I'm pretty sure Lopez's average velocity is higher than Harvey's and he has 11 Ks this spring compared to Harvey's four so he definitely can do that. I've watched Lopez multiple times recently and he's probably had the best spring of any starting candidate. Lopez is a guy with former prospect pedigree.  He might not have a ton of upside anymore but it's not like he's Ariel Miranda or some total no name farm hand getting his chance at a cup of coffee. What has happened more often, a former top prospect harnessing his stuff with another team or a 31 year old with multiple surgeries and decreasing stuff having a good year with his 5th team in 3 years? In any event, I'd like to see them both get a chance to start or at least get a lot of burn coming out of the pen. They've earned it this spring. 

Fair enough, I really don't think either of them are going to have a fantastic season.  If Lopez is your guy, that's fine, too.

Getting back to the main point, I just don't want to see any prospects lose out to a guy like Lopez and/or Harvey.  

[LTO's]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Getting back to the main point, I just don't want to see any prospects lose out to a guy like Lopez and/or Harvey.

100% agree there. If Zimmermann keeps this up and doesn't make the rotation over Harvey or Lopez I'll be very disappointed. By the dog days of summer if we don't see Lowther, Wells or Baumann that will also be disappointing. 

[Just Regular]

You hope for the best and doctors always getting better, but I can't blame anyone for taking a Glass Half Empty default on anyone after the TOS surgery.   There hasn't really been a groundbreaking success yet - maybe it counteracts general Camden fear among all P generally if we can get a Win here.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/thoracic-outlet-syndrome-fells-archer/

 

[OFFNY]

On 3/16/2021 at 5:44 PM, Tony-OH said:

 

 

Let's face it, Felix Hernandez has been throwing mid-80's all spring so it doesn't come as a huge surprise that he suddenly has elbow discomfort. 

This along with the fact that Matt Harvey was reportedly throwing 94-96 yesterday and pitched decently over four innings, and Jorge Lopez continues to pitch well has made it an interesting horse race for the final two rotation spots.

Officially, no one but John Means had a rotation spot but I think we all knew that Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer had spots unless they either got injured or imploded this spring.

Let's assume these three are in the rotation:
1. Means
2. Kremer
3. Akins

That leaves two spots open if they go with the 5-man rotation, and since Holt basically said he doesn't like 6-man rotation, I'm going to go with a 5-man rotation.

I see almost no way that Bruce Zimmermann doesn't make the rotation with his spring so far. Not only hasn't he given up a run, but his fastball was up to 94-95 MPH and touching 96 in his last start and his slider has been a real un-hittable pitch.

So, I'm saying Zim is in at #4.
 

4. Zimmermann

That leaves one more spot and if we scratch Hernandez off (Nothing is official, but I'm going to go with the fact that nothing good as ever come from a pitcher throwing 2-3 MPH slower than in years past who suddenly has elbow discomfort), that leaves these candidates:

5. Matt Harvey (NRI)
6. Jorge Lopez
7. Wade LeBlanc (NRI)

Lopez has pitched the best overall so far, and is the only one that doesn't not a roster spot ...... but if Harvey is throwing 94-96 again, and he's able to look decent, I don't see how he doesn't end up with that 5th spot.

I still think that Lopez makes the team as a long-reliever/spot-starter and besides, he's probably been in need of moving to the pen for some time now. With three lefties in the rotation, I don't see LeBlanc making it without another injury. LeBlanc can got to the alternate site and be ready if an opportunity develops.

So that's how I see things shaking out there in Mid-march. Obviously the last two weeks could change some things, but if I had to guess, the rotation is going be this to give the rotation a L-R-L balance.

1. John Means
2. Dean Kremer
3. Bruce Zimmermann
4. Matt Harvey
5. Keegan Akin

If the Orioles go with 9 relievers for 14 pitchers, here's how I think the bullpen shapes up.

1. Scott (LHP) - High leverage/closer
2. Valdez (RHP) - High leverage/closer
3. Armstrong (RHP)
4. Tate (RHP)
5. Fry (LHP)
6. Cole Sulser (RHP) 
7. Tyler Wells (RHP) - Can provide some length
8. Jorge Lopez (RHP) - Long guy
9. Connor Greene (NRI) (RHP) - Long guy/ but don't be surprised if he works into late inning role.

Davis gets put on 60-day IL to make room for Harvey. Lakins gets DFA'd for Greene.

Now, if the Orioles want more length they could go with LeBlanc over Sulser or possibly Goudeau, but they will both be at the alternate site getting ready so they would be options if needed after the season starts. 

 

o

 

7 games into the season, Melewski chimes in ...... 

 

A Take On the Rotation So Far, and Moving Forward

(By Steve Melewski)

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/04/a-take-on-the-rotation-so-far-and-moving-forward.html

 

o

[OFFNY]

On 4/10/2021 at 3:23 PM, OFFNY said:

o

 

7 games into the season, Melewski chimes in ...... 

 

A Take On the Rotation So Far, and Moving Forward

(By Steve Melewski)

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/04/a-take-on-the-rotation-so-far-and-moving-forward.html

 

o

o

 

22 games into the season, Roch Kubatko speculates ...... 

 

Pitching Changes Can Be Expected Throughout the Summer

(By Roch Kubatko)

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2021/04/pitching-changes-can-be-expected-throughout-the-summer.html

 

o