2022 early look top prospects

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You don’t draft for need in baseball…ever.

I would almost rather draft for need than this goofy underslot strategy.  If Jones didn't look like the best player available and there was a high school SS who projected as a decent possibility to be an All Star SS at the ML level, I would pick the SS over Jones if they were looked at as equal prospects. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

As my aunt would say “stop yourself!”  Clearly it can happen and does happen. But large market teams give huge contracts to the most talented players for a reason.  That’s why we compare contract value to player WAR and how profits are made in the economic margins.  Statistics help decisions for the future.  But they aren’t determinant of what will happen.

Well, I think it’s hard to say what the formula is to win a WS.    And the superstars aren’t always guys who were obvious superstars on draft day.  

I think we shouldn’t overthink this.   The pick has to balance ceiling with probability of reaching that ceiling.   You go with the higher ceiling unless there’s someone else who’s close and has a much better shot at reaching his ceiling.   That approach seems to favor Jones, if you believe what the majority of pundits seem to be saying/reporting.  Of course, as I keep saying, we don’t know if Elias’ evaluation of these players and their ceilings jibes with the majority pundit view.  
 

[SpOkane]

You only draft for need when all other things are equal between your choices. How often does that happen though??

[Jammer7]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Braves won the WS with their game changing generational talent not playing.

You can get there any number of ways.

Freddie, Dansby, Ozzie and Riley are dudes that win big games too. You need several dudes. Injuries happen, yep. That’s why you need several. And yes, there are different formulas to win.

[joelala]

I kind of have a funny feeling that Termarr is gonna be the pick and we get a decent savings on him. I believe he still hasn’t committed to a college and seems to have zero intention of doing so. Also, he doesn’t have the same hype he had this winter. I could see a deal being worked out. And quite frankly, I’d love it.  

[OriolesMagic83]

15 minutes ago, joelala said:

I kind of have a funny feeling that Termarr is gonna be the pick and we get a decent savings on him. I believe he still hasn’t committed to a college and seems to have zero intention of doing so. Also, he doesn’t have the same hype he had this winter. I could see a deal being worked out. And quite frankly, I’d love it.  

I'm not a big fan of taking a likely 2B at #1.  Do you think his bat is that elite?  I'm not a defensive expert, but some posters here think the O's don't have any legitimate MLB SS prospects. 

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, joelala said:

I kind of have a funny feeling that Termarr is gonna be the pick and we get a decent savings on him. I believe he still hasn’t committed to a college and seems to have zero intention of doing so. Also, he doesn’t have the same hype he had this winter. I could see a deal being worked out. And quite frankly, I’d love it.  

I have a funny feeling I have no idea who the pick is going to be.   On my surpised meter, Johnson would be pretty high up there.   I think it's between Jones, Green, and Lee but I'm not even sure about that.

[joelala]

41 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm not a big fan of taking a likely 2B at #1.  Do you think his bat is that elite?  I'm not a defensive expert, but some posters here think the O's don't have any legitimate MLB SS prospects. 

Yea I mean it depends if we agree that the bat is as ‘generational’ as some scouts are saying it is. I’ve also heard he has an excellent make up and great work ethic. In principal though I’d be totally fine with a second baseman at #1 if he could be a perennial all star and would sign under-slot  

 

42 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I have a funny feeling I have no idea who the pick is going to be.   On my surpised meter, Johnson would be pretty high up there.   I think it's between Jones, Green, and Lee but I'm not even sure about that.

 

Fine, let me rephrase: the pick could make sense for us as a pretty high upside bat who would take an underslot deal. I’m no fortune teller either. I like him better than Lee but that may just be my own personal bias as I’ve listened to some interviews with him and am just really rooting for him. I’d be happy with anyone of those guys except Lee, quite frankly. I also like Collier. That swing is smoooth. 

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, joelala said:

Yea I mean it depends if we agree that the bat is as ‘generational’ as some scouts are saying it is. I’ve also heard he has an excellent make up and great work ethic. In principal though I’d be totally fine with a second baseman at #1 if he could be a perennial all star and would sign under-slot  

 

 

Fine, let me rephrase: the pick could make sense for us as a pretty high upside bat who would take an underslot deal. I’m no fortune teller either. I like him better than Lee but that may just be my own personal bias as I’ve listened to some interviews with him and am just really rooting for him. I’d be happy with anyone of those guys except Lee, quite frankly. I also like Collier. That swing is smoooth. 

I think if it's not Jones or Green, and they decide to go underslot that Lee more fits their profile type of player.     Lee's profile is similar to Johnson's actually.   They both have plus hit tools, both are playing SS but more likely wind up to 2B (Lee also profiles at 3B), with average speed.   Johnson might have a little more power potential but I don't think it's a signifcant difference.   The biggest difference is that Lee is a more proven commodity.   It would be a huge surprise to me if they took Johnson over Lee.   Not a huge surprise if they took Jones or Green over Lee.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, joelala said:

I kind of have a funny feeling that Termarr is gonna be the pick and we get a decent savings on him. I believe he still hasn’t committed to a college and seems to have zero intention of doing so. Also, he doesn’t have the same hype he had this winter. I could see a deal being worked out. And quite frankly, I’d love it.  

I heard that Termarr’s HS season is over already.   So, no more real opportunities for him to move the needle.   He was my early preference but I’m leaning Jones now just based on the growing pundit consensus.  

I will say this, though: it’s never bothered me that he is likely to be a 2B.   A great hitting 2B is a huge asset.   I close my eyes and I see Joe Morgan.  If I was confident that he was the best hitting prospect in the draft, I’d be happy to have that at 2B.
 

[Jammer7]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I heard that Termarr’s HS season is over already.   So, no more real opportunities for him to move the needle.   He was my early preference but I’m leaning Jones now just based on the growing pundit consensus.  

I will say this, though: it’s never bothered me that he is likely to be a 2B.   A great hitting 2B is a huge asset.   I close my eyes and I see Joe Morgan.  If I was confident that he was the best hitting prospect in the draft, I’d be happy to have that at 2B.
 

His HS team was so bad, Termarr only got up two times a game. He did not have a great season, apparently. Scouts have begun to question the body type and what lies ahead for him. Will he maintain the bounce he has now? There is no projection left. Will he get bigger in a bad way? I think these questions are what hurt him. 

[Sports Guy]

38 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

His HS team was so bad, Termarr only got up two times a game. He did not have a great season, apparently. Scouts have begun to question the body type and what lies ahead for him. Will he maintain the bounce he has now? There is no projection left. Will he get bigger in a bad way? I think these questions are what hurt him. 

He has no business being the #1 pick.  
 

 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

 

[Anonsnides]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He has no business being the #1 pick.  
 

 

How do you know this?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Anonsnides said:

How do you know this?

Because I’m psychic.