The Downward Spiral

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think I’d sign for 2/$25 if I were Mancini, if he keeps hitting like he is now.   He’ll be more marketable after his age 30 season than his age 31 season, and that’s not enough money to offset it IMO.    

I am wondering if teams will offer Mancini a guaranteed contract longer than two years with his cancer history. Also wonder what Trey and his agent think about that.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Good choice for a thread title because Nine Inch Nails is the perfect background music for this year's Orioles team. 

 

[Three Run Homer]

I gotta hand it to this team.  They are coming up with extremely creative ways of losing.  Get a big lead in the first inning, and then cough it up almost immediately?  Done and done.  Get a big lead early in the game with your ace pitching, and then blow it in the late innings?  Done.  Sacrifice bunts in the ninth when you are down multiple runs?  Hell yes! 

Tonight we had a new wrinkle:  fall behind in the late innings, take the lead after a rain delay, put your ace in line for the win...and then have your two best relievers s**t the bed.  I'm telling you, there's always a new plot twist here.  Shonda Rhimes ain't got nothing on these guys.    The '62 Mets are jealous of these guys.  

[rudyrooster]

As the poster whom started this topic:  

This team is getting even more horrible as the season progresses.

We've got two probable all-stars on this team in Means and Mancini, yet we are not even respectable.

Why can't we play .500 baseball or somewhere close to that while we "rebuild"?

We've got great "prospects" down on the farm.  But that's all they are right now--just prospects.

Elias's butt should be hanging from a sling come next season if improvement is not seen.

I'm with Tony Oh.  I'm tired of losing and especially losing at the pace we are losing.

[Chelsea_Phil]

I do love Nine Inch Nails, but the O's are unwatchable at present.  Once they win a game or two, I will go back to watching them, but seeing a AA team (that being the Os) get crushed against major league teams, even horrible ones like the Twins, is too much for me to bear.

Edited May 26, 2021 by Chelsea_Phil
add some clarity)

[Bahama O's Fan]

Elias has to find a way to make this team "watchable" for fans or else they will be turned away and hard to get back once the team starts winning. 

[ChrisP]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Elias has to find a way to make this team "watchable" for fans or else they will be turned away and hard to get back once the team starts winning. 

I disagree...they always come back when the team wins. I'm sure I'm not the only one who had family talking about the Orioles non-stop during the Buck years and now it's crickets.

The Diehards will always pay attention (guilty). 

[Sports Guy]

49 minutes ago, ChrisP said:

I disagree...they always come back when the team wins. I'm sure I'm not the only one who had family talking about the Orioles non-stop during the Buck years and now it's crickets.

The Diehards will always pay attention (guilty). 

I think this has always been true.  I’m not 100% sure it’s true going forward.

The you get generation isn’t into baseball and there are so many other entertainment options available now than ever before.

I think they will draw fans but will they be able to get back to 2.4M+ going forward?

I think they can but they also need to start winning soon...if they have several more years of ineptitude, I think it could really be a tough road back for them.

[Tony-OH]

On 5/23/2021 at 10:59 AM, LA2 said:

Although I was among those who were pained to see these fan favorites leave, I must admit that Elias seems to have shown a shrewd eye as to when each of these players had either crested or showed they were replaceable at less cost.  Let's take a quick look at their performance since leaving the O's:

Bundy 8 starts, 0-6, 6.02 ERA/4.10 FIP this season after a fine, but short 11-start 2020.

Cashner Last pitched with Boston in 2019: 2-5, 6.20 ERA/5.38 FIP.

M. Castro 3.12 ERA/3.38 FIP in 18 games this season with the Mets after 4.10/4.19 in 10 games with them in 2020.

Givens 6.75 ERA/9.41 FIP in 10 games with Colorado (2020), 3.86/6.46 in 18 games with the Rockies in 2021.

Alberto This season with the Royals: 86 PAs, ZERO walks and HRs, .241/.250/.349/.599; OPS+ 64.

Villar With Miami and Toronto (2020): 207 PAs, .232/.301/.292/.593; OPS+ 64; with Mets this season: 113 PAs, .210/.291/.371/.662, OPS+ 86.

Nunez Could only get 29 PAs with the lowly Tigers and not because of injury: .148/.207/.444/.651.

Iglesias 160 PAs, .266/.294/.377/.670, OPS+ 84.

Of these, only Bundy last year and Castro this year were missed--and the Mets may be shielding Castro by restricting him to one-inning, lower-leverage situations, unlike Buck's longer, more confident deployment of him.

Galvis (OPS+ 120) has been a more than sufficient replacement for Iglesias for much less salary (S1.5 million vs. $3.5 million), just as Iglesias was a fine replacement for Villar the year before, and I don't expect Galvis' stats to go below Iglesias' this season.

Franco's stats have dropped precipitously, but at least he's still in the major leagues, unlike Nunez, is a slightly better glove, and his bat is likely to revive sooner than later.

This record, plus the addition of off-the-radar players like our closer Valdez, give me more confidence in Elias than I had in Duquette to know when to trade and for whom.



 

 

I think this is a good recap of the Elias trades from the players who were traded perspective. One of things that hurt Elias was COVID that wiped out the minor league season so we only have a small sample size of the prospects that he got back.

Of that sample size, I have him adding two top 10 prospects in Bradish and Vavre and there are some other guys that have some potential, particularly the young pitchers acquired in the Angels trades.

[Frobby]

On 5/22/2021 at 10:17 PM, Bahama O's Fan said:

I just wish one reporter in one interview would ask Elias, "What year do you realistically expect to contend for the AL East title?"

“I can’t put a time frame on it.   It’s a process.”

That’s what he’s going to say.    That’s what he said when he was hired, and it’s still true.    

Now, that’s all well and good, but the natives are getting restless.    Ownership is probably getting restless too.   All this is completely predictable.  The list of GMs who have survived after five straight losing seasons is pretty short.  

My feeling is — and has been since day one — that this is the last year Elias can field an uncompetitive team.  Next year’s team needs to show a lot of improvement in the W-L record, and the team two years from now needs to have a winning record and be seen as a team on the rise, not just a team that’s going to tread water at .520.

Honestly, it may not be that easy.   The AL East is riding high once again, after a few years of a relative down cycle.    But Elias needs to find a way to do it, or patience will expire.    That’s reality.   

 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Yeah, I agree. I think next year's team needs to hit .500 or close to it for Elias to keep his job. 

[sportsfan8703]

instead of an optimistic glimpse into the future this has been rock bottom. In a sink or swim year for the prospects they have mainly sunk. 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

“I can’t put a time frame on it.   It’s a process.”

That’s what he’s going to say.    That’s what he said when he was hired, and it’s still true.    

Now, that’s all well and good, but the natives are getting restless.    Ownership is probably getting restless too.   All this is completely predictable.  The list of GMs who have survived after five straight losing seasons is pretty short.  

My feeling is — and has been since day one — that this is the last year Elias can field an uncompetitive team.  Next year’s team needs to show a lot of improvement in the W-L record, and the team two years from now needs to have a winning record and be seen as a team on the rise, not just a team that’s going to tread water at .520.

Honestly, it may not be that easy.   The AL East is riding high once again, after a few years of a relative down cycle.    But Elias needs to find a way to do it, or patience will expire.    That’s reality.   

 

Exactly. if the team stunk but the young players were doing well at the major league level, or at least showing promise, I'd feel better. But you can't keep putting embarrassing teams on the field and the major league level then promote you prospects and watch them fail or at least watch them not improve.

Elias may need to sacrifice an unproductive coaching staff here soon or the heat will start on him. My biggest concern is the poor performance of Mountcastle, Stewart, Kremer, Zimmermann, and Akin at the major league level this year. How can they all be bad? 

Why just give the Sisco the starting catching job for a month? If he still stinks, send him back to the minors of DFA him. Why is Lopez still starting? Why does Hyde continue to try and push him past where he's effective? the team is not particularly strong on fundamentals and Hyde, who once was honest with the media, has now become a media cliché machine.

It's just all a mess right now. The apathy of the fan base is at an all-time high because the Orioles refuse to put out even a decent team during this rebuild. Last year it appeared to be a little bit of a turning point with Mountcastle doing well and the team playing decent for 30 games, but it's pretty clear this team was the team that collapsed over the last 30 games and Mountcastle's approach has completely regressed.

I really think Elias is going to have to make a splash international signing on a nearly ready or ready superstar, and he's going to have to be aggressive with his top prospects and get them to the show as quickly as possible because right now, I don't see how this team is even decent next year or even in two years without some major signings and major jumps in talent status.

When you get to pick 1-1 and 1-2, and you 1-1 guy is struggling a bit in AA, and no one has seen your 1-2 guy, it doesn't make people think this organization is going to be turning things around anytime soon.

Just the cold hard facts.

[drjohnnyfeva]

I think what we're also seeing is that last year was more of an exhibition type display than anything real.  As hopeful as I was starting this season, it's pretty obvious that last year was nothing to gauge the future on.  I jokingly said my first born will be a Junior or Senior in HS by the time we're a winning club again.  We're still 4 years from Junior year, so, sadly that looks like as reasonable a guess as any.  I can't imagine they wouldn't trade Means at some point and Mancini deserves a better situation despite the love the town gives him.

[maybenxtyr]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

instead of an optimistic glimpse into the future this has been rock bottom. In a sink or swim year for the prospects they have mainly sunk. 

This has definitely been a worst case scenario so far.