Connolly: Trade Deadline thoughts

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And justifiably so.

Elias also has risk.  If Mullins remains really good and the trade he gets is garbage, he looks bad too.  
 

I think that’s a big reason this won’t get done right now..ego.

 

I think the risk is higher on Mullins to keep producing, not lose his speed, etc.  I mean if the package is headlined by an Eloy Jimenez type, or a Tatis Jr type, plus others, I like our chances.  

Call it ego if you want, I just think there's some fear that, as CoC said, that Mullins turns into a pumpkin.  IMO, there's no real recent comp to a guy like him...drops switch hitting and becomes an all-star talent.  People are waiting for the other shoe to drop.

So if the deal doesn't get done this year like we all seem to think it won't...if he's still producing next year at this level...and you've got AR up, RMC is producing, Means, G-Rod are dealing...Finally, you can see the rebuild coming together.  Do you deal him then?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think the risk is higher on Mullins to keep producing, not lose his speed, etc.  I mean if the package is headlined by an Eloy Jimenez type, or a Tatis Jr type, plus others, I like our chances.  

Call it ego if you want, I just think there's some fear that, as CoC said, that Mullins turns into a pumpkin.  IMO, there's no real recent comp to a guy like him...drops switch hitting and becomes an all-star talent.  People are waiting for the other shoe to drop.

So if the deal doesn't get done this year like we all seem to think it won't...if he's still producing next year at this level...and you've got AR up, RMC is producing, Means, G-Rod are dealing...Finally, you can see the rebuild coming together.  Do you deal him then?

What is Haskin doing?  Is Hays healthy?  Anyone else drafted this year that looks great next year and look like they can play CF?  Did you get a CF in another move you really like?

Lots of variables.  My answer is almost always yes, I will make the deal if I feel it makes the team better overall.  I think that is why you make any trade.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

What is Haskin doing?  Is Hays healthy?  Anyone else drafted this year that looks great next year and look like they can play CF?  Did you get a CF in another move you really like?

Lots of variables.  My answer is almost always yes, I will make the deal if I feel it makes the team better overall.  I think that is why you make any trade.

Hays is probably on the IL, I feel confident about that much.  

Agreed though, lots of variables.  Would have to see what it looks like in the moment if it all came true.

[Sports Guy]

I also wouldn’t pass on a deal because “we don’t have a reliable replacement”.

There are always possibilities and things you can do.

Its a simple decision.  You shop Mullins and you say, this what I’m looking for.  You call Seattle, who has the worst CF production in baseball and say, you can have Mullins for either Kelenic or Rodriguez and Hancock or Gilbert.  If they say yes, You have to make that deal.  They probably won’t but that’s basically the type of move you are looking for.

[jabba72]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

We keep hearing from everyone that you can’t bring up Adley because we aren’t winning this year.

The reverse also has to be true then.  We shouldn’t be hesitating on trading guys that aren’t going to be big parts of the next contender.  
 

I think it’s likely Mancini doesn’t fall into that category.  I think it’s possible but unlikely Santander does as well.

The question is Means and Mullins.  Where do you see them In 2-3 years?  Both approaching 30 years old.  What is their value to a contender then and how irreplaceable is it if you look to move them now, when their value is so high?

Mullins and Means are late round success stories that dont happen very often. I hope they stay as part of the rebuild. But any player has a price. The question is how bad do other teams want them. Those former GM's all seem to think Mullins is irreplaceable with the lack of CF's in the game presently. Throw in the fact Mullins is also a leadoff hitter and he's a pretty valuable player. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, jabba72 said:

Mullins and Means are late round success stories that dont happen very often. I hope they stay as part of the rebuild. But any player has a price. The question is how bad do other teams want them. Those former GM's all seem to think Mullins is irreplaceable with the lack of CF's in the game presently. Throw in the fact Mullins is also a leadoff hitter and he's a pretty valuable player. 

Mancini was an 8th round pick.

[jabba72]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mancini was an 8th round pick.

Him too, but a sub 800 OPS 1B isnt going to fetch you much in a trade. He might as well stay. 

[Sports Guy]

And lastly, John Means:

https://theathletic.com/2667943/2021/07/03/should-the-orioles-trade-john-means-a-panel-of-former-gms-discuss-what-theyd-do/?source=user_shared_article
 

How attractive is John Means on this year’s trade market?

Duquette: If he’s healthy, he would be one of the top starting pitchers available. One of the top because he’s cheap, he’s right around the top of the rotation and you have control. He fits every piece of the criteria.

Evans: I think you’re going to see a lot of interest, but I think that the price tag should be too high. Because there’s a lot of value when you have that many controllable years, even though he’ll be entering the arbitration process and getting more expensive. Just from what I have observed, his value is only going up right now. So, I don’t anticipate there being an easy deal to make there because of the value point that he carries and the need of return that a club would demand.

O’Dowd: I think he’ll be very attractive with that number of years of control, assuming he’s back healthy and pitching before the trading deadline. Saying that, I don’t think necessarily he’s going to be looked at as a Justin Verlander would or a Max Scherzer or any true No. 1 because he doesn’t fit the profile of today’s power pitcher. But he is really damn good, and I do think clubs would give up a lot to get him. But what the Orioles have to decide is, “Is he more valuable to us to build around with these other young pitchers or should we cash in on him now because we don’t think the success is sustainable down the road?” I think he fits in very, very well with the young starters they have coming. And I’ve got to have one guy in my rotation that is kind of the anchor to build a young staff around because I don’t think I’m going to be able to go into the marketplace and buy that kind of player.

Bowden: He would get as much return as anyone that’s traded this year. He would get more in return than Max Scherzer because Scherzer’s a rental. John Means is a top-of-the-rotation starter you build around. I love the guy. Good makeup. Knows how to pitch. Has really figured it out. I think he is my Game 1 starter when I make the playoffs in three years.

[Sports Guy]

What would be a reasonable return for Means in this market?

Duquette: I would look at the Blake Snell deal from last year that Tampa did (with San Diego). And I would say that would be something pretty darn close. Snell is a top-of-rotation guy. He doesn’t pitch as deep into the game as Means, but he also has a Cy Young under his belt. So, he has some aspects that are better than Means and has another year or two in the game. But that would be the level you’d be looking for. The Padres traded some pretty good players; Luis Patiño is a tremendous talent.

Evans: The Orioles will look at their timeline in terms of when they feel like they’re ready to make a run for the division or a playoff spot, which conceivably could be sooner than later; only they know what their plans are. But you’re going to start to get hungry for guys that are ready now and not as much for guys that are further away. So, if you’re getting a return that is going to help you in the near term, and not just in the long term, your quality of return is going to have a variance. And you probably still want another guy that’s further away to really sweeten the deal.

O’Dowd: Another young, impactful starting pitcher that is just not there yet. Listen, if somebody wants to offer you another organization’s (Grayson) Rodriguez or (D.L.) Hall, well then, yeah, damn, you’ve got to listen to that. Historically, if you look at the trading deadline, those guys don’t get traded then. Like the Orioles would never trade those guys. So, I can’t imagine another club doing that, but you would certainly have to listen on John if the right kind of deal is there.

Bowden: I’d have to get multiple starting players. I’d need to get a young starter back with the same upside as Means and I need to get one or two more everyday players that I can plug in to help me win. I have to win the trade or I’m not trading him. Not even close.

[Sports Guy]

Would you trade Means if you were the Orioles or a team in their position?

Duquette: I would not trade Means.

Evans: I think it’s very difficult to trade a cornerstone piece of a staff. Pitching is very hard to come by. There’s never enough starting pitching on the market. And this is a very fair market price (contractually) for him for the next several years. And you’ve got a chance to potentially retain him with an extension at some point. So, it doesn’t really make sense given the timeline that you’re probably working with in Baltimore. So, for me, it would be very difficult.

O’Dowd: I would not. No, unless I was blown away.

Bowden: No, I’m not going to trade him. But that being said, I would trade anybody if I’m going to dominate the trade. I’m certainly going to listen if anybody wants to put an offer on the table. But 99.9 percent of the time, he goes nowhere.

[Philip]

On other words,”of course we will trade him if the price is right but the price won’t be right, so we’ll keep him.”

On the other hand, Snell, Archer, Verlander all got traded. The Archer trade was a bust because the return included Tyler Glasgow.

So if we make a trade we better be the Rays and not the Pirates.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Philip said:

On other words,”of course we will trade him if the price is right but the price won’t be right, so we’ll keep him.”

On the other hand, Snell, Archer, Verlander all got traded. The Archer trade was a bust because the return included Tyler Glasgow.

So if we make a trade we better be the Rays and not the Pirates.

It was a lot more than just Glasnow but yes, that is the type of deal we are looking for.

[7Mo]

Although I believe Means will not be traded, the above references the Blake Snell trade. That brought back:

Luis Patina, Padres #3 and MLB #23 overall plus

Cole Wilcox, Padres #7 "considered to have some of the best stuff in the 2020 draft"

Blake Hunt, Padres #14 and

Francisco Mejia, Padres #15 

Patina was close to the majors, having pitched some for TB this year. Obviously the Rays had their own valuations on the return guys so MLB values don't necessarily define what they felt they got back. Would you take a comparable return for Means?

https://www.mlb.com/news/blake-snell-traded-to-padres

[7Mo]

Let me clarify. "I believe Means will not be traded at this deadline..."

The Snell trade was in December, not at the deadline. Obviously if someone else offers enough, Means could be dealt at any time. I just think the combo of him coming off the IL with limited starts before the deadline plus all teams being leery of spin rates and sticky stuff, that just makes me believe he doesn't go this July.

[Philip]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It was a lot more than just Glasnow but yes, that is the type of deal we are looking for.

The Pirates traded three players for Archer. Archer wasn’t very good with the Pirates and even if it had been one for one, the Rays would have won handily.

But unless Means comes back from the IL quick clean and completely, no team will give up a meaningful ready-now starter. The Pirates should have just plugged Glasnow into their own rotation.