2021 Draft Thread

[Three Run Homer]

38 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

At this point the only thing that makes sense is that Angelos told him not to spend the entire draft allotment, thus he goes underslot for almost every pick and takes a bunch of college guys with little leverage that will jump at the chance to be in a ML (sort of) system. The O's are no closer to contention in 2021 than they were in 2019

Well, your theory will be tested very quickly. I still think we wind up spending close to the entire amount.  Which is not the same as saying that the money is being spent efficiently.  

[ThomasTomasz]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

At this point the only thing that makes sense is that Angelos told him not to spend the entire draft allotment, thus he goes underslot for almost every pick and takes a bunch of college guys with little leverage that will jump at the chance to be in a ML (sort of) system. The O's are no closer to contention in 2021 than they were in 2019

Peter isn’t involved right now and look no further than our involvement in the J2 market as evidence of that.  

As for the Orioles being no closer to contention……..lol.  I have a whole lot more confidence in our development and analytics systems to develop and hone our current prospects than I’ve done at any time over the last 30 years.  Our track record with developing pitching was horrendous.  Meanwhile, this current staff has developed a guy who no one considered a top prospect into an ace.  They have the top pitching prospect in MLB (and depending on who you listen to, Grayson is considered in a tier above his own) and another who slots into the top 50 on most lists.  On top of that, they have boosted the stock of Baumann and  Bradish.  

Not all of these guys will hit the field with the Orioles.  You draft and develop some players, you sign free agents and you make trades.  Look at how San Diego made trades to build up when their home-grown core was ready.  Houston did the same thing.  

But to say the Orioles are no closer to contention……I just don’t get that man.  The front office infrastructure was a joke compared to other organizations.  Almost no J2 signings to speak of (and I’d love for @Tony-OHor someone else to post what the percentage breakdown is between college/HS and J2 players.). A development system that couldn’t develop starting pitching to save their lives despite HUGE investments at the top of the draft in pitchers.  The same development system that kept people employed because they were “former Orioles.”  And one of, if not the smallest, analytics departments in the sport…….in a league that is, now more than ever, driven by technology.  

We may not be the Dodgers or Rays yet, but we are much, much closer to them right now organizationally than we were in 2019.  By leaps and bounds better.  

[jamalshw]

13 hours ago, Sydnor said:

If they wanted to draft any of the over slot high school players like Burns, Taylor, Montgomery, or Jump they would have already done so. I do not think they intend to spend their allotment again this year.

I disagree. I think the higher end talent still available are all guys with major signability questions which is why no team was willing to draft them in the top-10 rounds for fear of losing some of their draft allotment. I think the Orioles go with several higher upside, signability question marks in the last 10 rounds because (aside from just not getting the player) there are no penalties for failure to sign. This way, you take 3-4 of these difficult sign guys with the expectation of signing 1-2 of them. It's a plan that makes sense (but is a bit more risky than I think its worth). 

If, however, that doesn't come to pass. Then, I'm on your side. 

[7Mo]

29 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I disagree. I think the higher end talent still available are all guys with major signability questions which is why no team was willing to draft them in the top-10 rounds for fear of losing some of their draft allotment. I think the Orioles go with several higher upside, signability question marks in the last 10 rounds because (aside from just not getting the player) there are no penalties for failure to sign. This way, you take 3-4 of these difficult sign guys with the expectation of signing 1-2 of them. It's a plan that makes sense (but is a bit more risky than I think its worth). 

If, however, that doesn't come to pass. Then, I'm on your side. 

Or take 2 and sign one of those 2.

[LookinUp]

My understanding (which may be outdated) is that the draft pool for rounds 1-10 is disconnected from 11+. By that, I mean that we don't get to allot savings in 1-10 to guys in 11+. That means if  you're not drafted in the top 10 rounds, you're not getting any savings netted from any under slot guys at the top.

If true, I doubt there's a significant over slot guy that we plan to draft and sign. Maybe a slightly over slot guy or two, but nothing significant in terms of dollars.

[Hazmat]

Here's MLB.com's top players that remain available:

Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Forks (S.C.) HS (No. 20)
Peyton Stovall, SS, Haughton (La.) HS (No. 29)
Gage Jump, LHP, JSerra Catholic (Calif.) HS (No. 43)
Chase Burns, RHP, Beech (Tenn.) HS (No. 47)
Jackson Baumeister, RHP, The Bolles School (Fla.) HS (No. 53)
Thatcher Hurd, RHP, Mira Costa (Calif.) HS (No. 60)
Tommy Dilandri, OF, Palo Verde (NV) HS (No. 61)
Alex Mooney, SS, St. Marys Prep (MI) (No. 64)
Braden Montgomery, OF/RHP, Madison Central (MS) HS (No. 66)
Davis Diaz, SS/C, Acalanes (Calif.) HS (No. 71)

[phatty]

I feel like there has to be a philosophy to not drafting pitchers this year. Is the data not valuable because of the increased spin rates and understanding how you can artificially increase them with the application of “sticky” stuff? I’m as baffled as most here but if that is the thought it is not a bad idea to hold off on selecting pitching with data that may produce invalid outcomes. 

Edited July 13, 2021 by phatty

[SpOkane]

Why draft a pitcher this year when you can make a trade next for several of the 10 pitchers LAA has drafted this year so far?

[Sports Guy]

56 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

Here's MLB.com's top players that remain available:

Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Forks (S.C.) HS (No. 20)
Peyton Stovall, SS, Haughton (La.) HS (No. 29)
Gage Jump, LHP, JSerra Catholic (Calif.) HS (No. 43)
Chase Burns, RHP, Beech (Tenn.) HS (No. 47)
Jackson Baumeister, RHP, The Bolles School (Fla.) HS (No. 53)
Thatcher Hurd, RHP, Mira Costa (Calif.) HS (No. 60)
Tommy Dilandri, OF, Palo Verde (NV) HS (No. 61)
Alex Mooney, SS, St. Marys Prep (MI) (No. 64)
Braden Montgomery, OF/RHP, Madison Central (MS) HS (No. 66)
Davis Diaz, SS/C, Acalanes (Calif.) HS (No. 71)

 

[jamalshw]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

My understanding (which may be outdated) is that the draft pool for rounds 1-10 is disconnected from 11+. By that, I mean that we don't get to allot savings in 1-10 to guys in 11+. That means if  you're not drafted in the top 10 rounds, you're not getting any savings netted from any under slot guys at the top.

If true, I doubt there's a significant over slot guy that we plan to draft and sign. Maybe a slightly over slot guy or two, but nothing significant in terms of dollars.

My understanding is Rounds 1-10 are the only ones with assigned value and the only ones where the pool money goes away if a player is unsigned. As for 11+, each pick is allotted $125,000 anything paid above that goes against the total allotment from 1-10. So, if the Orioles have saved a couple million, they could give that to someone 11+. 

[sportsfan8703]

I think Elias is sticking to his plan. I appreciate that. I don’t know if I agree with it, but he’s doing it. It’s obvious that he preferred college bats. Grow the bats and buy/trade for the arms. It looks like he’s also building the depth in the system to a legit top 75ish. 
 

The COVID year made things more uncertain for us, and a smaller draft that Elias had to work with. 
 

It looks like he’s taking BPA, even if they’re all OF. The IF depth may come in trades. When we’re ready to compete the overall depth will build the rotation. 
 

It’s just unfortunate that Kjerstad had a rare heart condition and Baumler needed TJ. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

If true, that should make today relatively interesting, to say the least.   

[Getz]

Hopefully we can still get one of those high schoolers.

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

My understanding is Rounds 1-10 are the only ones with assigned value and the only ones where the pool money goes away if a player is unsigned. As for 11+, each pick is allotted $125,000 anything paid above that goes against the total allotment from 1-10. So, if the Orioles have saved a couple million, they could give that to someone 11+. 

Oh. That does make things much more interesting. Sounds like they used 1-10 to get good players while still having a deal or two in place with some over slot guys for 11-20. 

 

[Sports Guy]

Draft Taylor