Olney on O’s losing

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

If by creative you mean lucky, yeah, that will help.

It's also why trading Dylan Bundy to get prospects,  just to go out and sign a FA pitcher 12 months later because goddamn it I can just taste that 67th win, doesn't make a lot of sense.

Because you're almost certainly going to have pay more for a worse pitcher.

Actually going back to look at that Hammel trade, I totally forgot it was for Guthrie and we also got Matt Lindstrom who was a solid big league reliever at that time. Pretty interesting trade that worked out really well for the O's. Obviously the goals were different than the Bundy trade. 

[Redskins Rick]

8 minutes ago, interloper said:

Exactly, which is how we ended up with guys like Ubaldo and Cobb on whack contracts. 

Meanwhile a guy like Jason Hammel was a great find. We need guys like that. Have to be a little creative. It annoys me that we passed on a guy like Taijuan Walker back when he was had for a 1-year deal. 

It pissed me off to see Cobb pitching well for the Angels, but mostly on Oriole money.

Not like this team has 5 able bodied starters to pitch games.

 

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

The O's have $0 committed in 2023. He also inherited Cedric Mullins, Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, John Means, and the first overall pick in a draft with a no-brainer potential star from the previous regime. He's been here since 2018 and has traded away lots of talent since then.

There have been plenty of avenues to improve the team; there will be even more avenues to improve the team this offseason. I could put together a winning team too if I was able to tank for years and hoard top draft picks. Elias needs to start putting together a winning team - otherwise any GM could do what he is doing.

Few Owners or GMs have the patience to tank the way the O's are doing it.  They may start down the path but after a while the fan, media, friends of the owner..... it gets pretty difficult to stay the course.

[NCRaven]

I would expect:

1B is settled with Mountcastle getting most of the time and spelled by Mancini.

2B/SS is surprisingly settled given the presence of Urias, Martin, Mateo, and Jones now in the system. Wouldn't be surprised if they offer Valaika and Wilkerson minor league deals again.  

3B remains the most questionable position on the field.  Could sign another Franco type as a fill in til a prospect is ready.

C could well be settled by late April when we hope Rutschman will arrive.  Only real question is whether they stay with someone already in the system as the backup or sign someone else.  Severino is gone.

OF is probably settled with Hays, Mullins, Santander, McKenna in MLB and guys like Neustrom and Stowers not far behind.  Really hope Kjerstad is ready to get his career started in 2022 and it will be interesting to see where Cowser starts next year.

P is a mess.  I would expect them to sign another veteran starter, maybe someone without the extensive injury history of Matt Harvey.  If he has a decent second half, they may even bring Harvey back on another one-year deal.  Means, Zimmerman, a Harvey-type, Rodriguez by mid-season.  DL Hall?  Bauman/Braddish/Brynovich? Smith?  Any of Akin/Lowther/Kremer/Wells?  Any of them end up in the pen?  Will we sign a veteran receiver.

If I squint, I can see a decent team emerging.  Maybe 2023 is the year we trade for our Verlander?

[interloper]

Just now, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

I don't think the O's have a true SS in the system. Jordan Westburg has been better at SS than I expected, but I think he ultimately ends up at 3B. It's a loaded SS FA Class this year  - it makes sense to add someone there. 

As for pitching - they need lots of it. I don't expect them to drop big money on a 30-something pitcher, but I would hope they try to cast a wider net to get a few Taijuan Walkers of the world to see what sticks. This season they went with Matt Harvey and Felix Hernandez - just completely ridiculous.

I hear ya, but in fairness, I think a lot of us were kind of on board with letting the rotation have room for guys like Akin and Kremer who had impressed somewhat in 2020. All the media was talking about was the #4 and 5 spots of the rotation (Means, Kremer, and Akin were the popular top 3 from pundits). So you hoped one of the veteran dumpster dive guys worked out and then you had guys like Lopez as well. 

I definitely didn't feel like I wanted them to go grab some real deal starting pitching. I'm getting there though!

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, wildcard said:

Few Owners or GMs have the patience to tank the way the O's are doing it.  They may start down the path but after a while the fan, media, friends of the owner..... it gets pretty difficult to stay the course.

The Orioles already did it for 14 years, before the past 3 years. thats 17 years too many.

 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

I would expect:

1B is settled with Mountcastle getting most of the time and spelled by Mancini.

2B/SS is surprisingly settled given the presence of Urias, Martin, Mateo, and Jones now in the system. Wouldn't be surprised if they offer Valaika and Wilkerson minor league deals again.  

3B remains the most questionable position on the field.  Could sign another Franco type as a fill in til a prospect is ready.

C could well be settled by late April when we hope Rutschman will arrive.  Only real question is whether they stay with someone already in the system as the backup or sign someone else.  Severino is gone.

OF is probably settled with Hays, Mullins, Santander, McKenna in MLB and guys like Neustrom and Stowers not far behind.  Really hope Kjerstad is ready to get his career started in 2022 and it will be interesting to see where Cowser starts next year.

P is a mess.  I would expect them to sign another veteran starter, maybe someone without the extensive injury history of Matt Harvey.  If he has a decent second half, they may even bring Harvey back on another one-year deal.  Means, Zimmerman, a Harvey-type, Rodriguez by mid-season.  DL Hall?  Bauman/Braddish/Brynovich? Smith?  Any of Akin/Lowther/Kremer/Wells?  Any of them end up in the pen?  Will we sign a veteran receiver.

If I squint, I can see a decent team emerging.  Maybe 2023 is the year we trade for our Verlander?

It's wild just how many guys are possibilities for SP and how exactly none of them have worked out so far. Holding out hope for the next group of Bradish/Byrnovich/Smith... 

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

Just now, wildcard said:

Few Owners or GMs have the patience to tank the way the O's are doing it.  They may start down the path but after a while the fan, media, friends of the owner..... it gets pretty difficult to stay the course.

For good reason. Baseball teams are ultimately an entertainment product and at a certain point - they need to sell entertainment.

You could maybe argue a team could balance poor play from the team with other entertaining experiences for fans at the ballpark. But, the O's have banned outside food and haven't really added anything to the Camden Yards experience. The stadium gets louder during the dang hot dog race than the actual game.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

The Orioles already did it for 14 years, before the past 3 years. thats 17 years too many.

 

Nope.  Never really committed to a full rebuild during those years.  Always adding a veteran or two to boost fan interest.  They tried to develop the starters but that didn't work out.

[NCRaven]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

It's wild just how many guys are possibilities for SP and how exactly none of them have worked out so far. Holding out hope for the next group of Bradish/Byrnovich/Smith... 

I was pleased with Zimmerman before he got hurt, but the results from Kremer, Akin, Lowther, and Wells have been incredibly underwhelming.  None of them have taken advantage of opportunities when they were presented.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, interloper said:

It's wild just how many guys are possibilities for SP and how exactly none of them have worked out so far. Holding out hope for the next group of Bradish/Byrnovich/Smith... 

That is not what I am hoping for.  Means, Baumann, Zimmermann, Tyler Wells plus I want to see how Matt Harvey and Lopez finishes the season. Grayson and DL added as the season goes on.

[Chuck A]

I get the full on impression that most think that our pitching prospects are going to come up and be good right away.  That happens a lot less times than you all think.  They arrive with expectations and then fail because, well, they are now facing real live big league lineups.  Typically it takes a year or two after arrival in the majors for them to put it together.  There are always outliers to this, but i do believe it is the norm to struggle for a year or two.  Same for hitters.  Typically start off hot, then need time to figure out how to adjust to the opposing pitchers having adjusted to them.  Hence the "sophomore slump" that at least 90% hit.  They need to get some of these youngsters ready to be coming out of their sophomore slump's before becoming contenders.  '24 at the earliest as i see it.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That is not what I am hoping for.  Means, Baumann, Zimmermann, Tyler Wells plus I want to see how Matt Harvey and Lopez finish the season.

Oh, to clarify I just meant like, next season or whenever they are ready and there's a need in the rotation. I'm just hoping to see some of our guys have some success at some point when called upon. I agree about Baumann and Zimm. Wells for me is doing what Hunter Harvey did and showing us that his true role is a backend reliever. Looks like he likes it, too. Encouraged by Harvey and Lopez. 

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os can make mistakes and overcome them.  That’s a fallacy that they can’t.  It’s harder for them (and most teams) but it doesn’t mean they can’t do it.

No they can't.  Not to nearly the same degree that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers can.  Considering the Red Sox and Yankees are like 1/4 of our schedule that seems like a major competitive disadvantage.

 

Can the Orioles eat a 200 million dollar contract and still be competitive?  If the answer is no, (and the fact that Chris Davis has been such a boondoggle proves that) then we can't really overcome mistakes.  And with the unofficial salary cap in place (MLB won't approve contracts that exceed a team's revenue) there's no way for a multibillionaire owner to come in and let the Orioles retool every time a front office move goes sideways.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Hallas said:

No they can't.  Not to nearly the same degree that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers can.  Considering the Red Sox and Yankees are like 1/4 of our schedule that seems like a major competitive disadvantage.

 

Can the Orioles eat a 200 million dollar contract and still be competitive?  If the answer is no, (and the fact that Chris Davis has been such a boondoggle proves that) then we can't really overcome mistakes.  And with the unofficial salary cap in place (MLB won't approve contracts that exceed a team's revenue) there's no way for a multibillionaire owner to come in and let the Orioles retool every time a front office move goes sideways.

Which is why I said its harder for them.

 

Your second paragraph is just wrong.