Mountcastle off Concussion List, McKenna optioned

[Ohfan67]

McKenna has 40 career minor league home runs including the 11 at AAA this season and 1 in the Arizona Fall League back in the day. 40 in over 2100 plate appearances. I like the speed and energy, but the homers in AAA scream fluke. He had an eerily similar super hot month when he was at Frederick that padded his 2018 stats (if I remember correctly, it was like an incredibly hot 5 weeks). He then slugged .365 in 2019. I don't think the current streak is very indicative of what he can do in the majors. 

[Ohfan67]

1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

McKenna has 40 career minor league home runs including the 11 at AAA this season and 1 in the Arizona Fall League back in the day. 40 in over 2100 plate appearances. I like the speed and energy, but the homers in AAA scream fluke. He had an eerily similar super hot month when he was at Frederick that padded his 2018 stats (if I remember correctly, it was like an incredibly hot 5 weeks). He then slugged .365 in 2019. I don't think the current streak is very indicative of what he can do in the majors. 

As usual, my posts sound more pessimistic than I really mean them to be. I don't believe that McKenna will hit for power at the ML level, but I do like his speed, defense, and his potential to hit enough to be a fourth outfielder. I think he is in AAA and not on the Orioles bench because the Orioles believe he has a potential role in the future. I think McKenna is more likely to be on the ML roster next July than Stewart. 

[Philip]

I have been pretty steadfast in my contention that a guy who offers 2/3 of what you need is better than a guy who offers nothing. Stewart has a good eye and can draw a walk, which makes him rather special on the oriole roster. And he has real power, but you Gotta make contact in order to use the power and he doesn’t. Stewart has far more power than McKenna, But McKenna is more useful to the team. It is possible, though I don’t know how probable it is, that seeing the major league ball at the more advanced level, helped develop McKenna’s eye and reflexes a bit So that when he went back down he was more successful against slightly less advanced pitchers.

If that is possible, then it reinforces his need to continue develop at the big level, because he offers a lot.

[wildcard]

Bring him up!

[RZNJ]

28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Bring him up!

I disagree.   Let him finish the season in Norfolk and see if he slumps or stays hot.   Next spring, give him a shot at a full- time job with the fall back of being the 4th outfielder.    If he's turned a corner and is for real, it shouldn't disappear over the winter.    If he comes up right now, he's not going to be playing everyday.   Let's see how Hays and Santander finish the season.  Keep giving McKenna everyday AB's at Norfolk.

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I disagree.   Let him finish the season in Norfolk and see if he slumps or stays hot.   Next spring, give him a shot at a full- time job with the fall back of being the 4th outfielder.    If he's turned a corner and is for real, it shouldn't disappear over the winter.    If he comes up right now, he's not going to be playing everyday.   Let's see how Hays and Santander finish the season.  Keep giving McKenna everyday AB's at Norfolk.

In case you have not noticed Hays is not starting every day now.   Platoon Hays vs lefties and McKenna vs righties.    Give McKenna the bats in September so Elias knows who he can trade over the winter is the way I would like to see it go.

[sportsfan8703]

I’d keep the defense. Trade Mancini this offseason. Rotate Hays, Santander, and Mckenna, through the LF, RF, and DH. AR comes up in June. Hopefully Santander will get off to a fast start and he could make himself trade-able. 

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’d keep the defense. Trade Mancini this offseason. Rotate Hays, Santander, and Mckenna, through the LF, RF, and DH. AR comes up in June. Hopefully Santander will get off to a fast start and he could make himself trade-able. 

I think Adley will be up sometime in April.  If there is no work stoppage.

And what about Neustrom?

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I think Adley will be up sometime in April.  If there is no work stoppage.

And what about Neustrom?

Well we can’t have a a full time DH and a full time 1B, once AR is up, because he will be playing there 50% of the time. Why burn him out in a non competitive year?

I don’t think Neustrom has to be even placed on the 40 man roster this offseason to avoid the rule 5. So Neustrom looks like he’s going to start in AAA next year. But a log jam of OFs is developing. Stowers will be in AAA too. You’d have to think Diaz too. Watson and Rizer would be close to AAA as well. 
 

I think that’s why we have to trade Mancini. It would not only be what could we get in return for Mancini, but by freeing his spot up we could get a chance to see what some players can do. So a return + what would we not lose. Hopefully the new CBA brings back the DH to the NL. 

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Well we can’t have a a full time DH and a full time 1B, once AR is up, because he will be playing there 50% of the time. Why burn him out in a non competitive year?

I don’t think Neustrom has to be even placed on the 40 man roster this offseason to avoid the rule 5. So Neustrom looks like he’s going to start in AAA next year. But a log jam of OFs is developing. Stowers will be in AAA too. You’d have to think Diaz too. Watson and Rizer would be close to AAA as well. 
 

I think that’s why we have to trade Mancini. It would not only be what could we get in return for Mancini, but by freeing his spot up we could get a chance to see what some players can do. So a return + what would we not lose. Hopefully the new CBA brings back the DH to the NL. 

Fangraph says Neustrom has to be protected Dec 2021.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/orioles

[Frobby]

I was just opining on McKenna in another thread.    I think at 90 wRC+ he’d be a useful backup OF/pinch runner.   At 100 wRC+ he might be a useful starter.   This year he’s been 79 wRC+, which isn’t good enough, but his good AAA numbers suggest maybe he can do better.   I’m sufficiently intrigued.   

To @Ohfan67saying McKenna’s current power surge At Norfolk is a fluke, well of course it is, in part.  Obviously nobody thinks he’s going to homer once every 11 PA, at any level.   At the same time, I don’t see any reason he couldn’t develop, say, power to hit a homer once every 30 at bats.   He’s no 90-pound weakling.   He hasn’t shown that level of power in the minors before, but lots of guys develop more power as they mature.   Let’s hope that’s where McKenna is heading.  
 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I believe it was Roch who mentioned a little while back that it just seems like the Os win games when McKenna plays.  I think he even showed the record or something like that   

Hmmm.   The O’s are 11-18 when McKenna starts.   That’s better than the O’s overall winning percentage, but not by enough to suspect it’s anything other than random chance.  

The O’s are 27-36 when he plays at all, meaning they’re 16-18 when he comes off the bench.   It’s not surprising at all that their record would be better there, since defensive replacements generally enter a game only when a team is winning already.   
 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Hmmm.   The O’s are 11-18 when McKenna starts.   That’s better than the O’s overall winning percentage, but not by enough to suspect it’s anything other than random chance.  

The O’s are 27-36 when he plays at all, meaning they’re 16-18 when he comes off the bench.   It’s not surprising at all that their record would be better there, since defensive replacements generally enter a game only when a team is winning already.   
 

Maybe it was more of a “the last 10 games he has been in, the team has won X”.

 

[LA2]

22 hours ago, wildcard said:

In case you have not noticed Hays is not starting every day now.   Platoon Hays vs lefties and McKenna vs righties.    Give McKenna the bats in September so Elias knows who he can trade over the winter is the way I would like to see it go.

McKenna is a right-handed batter and the reverse-split performance he's shown so far is based on only 101 total ABs. I wish I had his minor-league split stats, but I don't; instead I'll go with Hyde's conviction that McKenna hits LHP better than RHP, as evinced in the fact that the manager has given him 55 ABs vs. RHP and 46 ABs vs. LHP, which is very out of proportion to the normal ratio of RHP/LHP-faced.

[LA2]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

I was just opining on McKenna in another thread.    I think at 90 wRC+ he’d be a useful backup OF/pinch runner.   At 100 wRC+ he might be a useful starter.   This year he’s been 79 wRC+, which isn’t good enough, but his good AAA numbers suggest maybe he can do better.   I’m sufficiently intrigued.   

To @Ohfan67saying McKenna’s current power surge At Norfolk is a fluke, well of course it is, in part.  Obviously nobody thinks he’s going to homer once every 11 PA, at any level.   At the same time, I don’t see any reason he couldn’t develop, say, power to hit a homer once every 30 at bats.   He’s no 90-pound weakling.   He hasn’t shown that level of power in the minors before, but lots of guys develop more power as they mature.   Let’s hope that’s where McKenna is heading.  
 

Agreed. Rylan Bannon's recent power surge is more promising because there is some power-hitting track record at lower levels.