19 Game Streak Post-Mortem

[spiritof66]

24 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I also think that due to Duquette's flirtation with the Toronto job, Angelos listened to him less and listened to other voices (Brady? Buck?) more in the last few years of that period.   So if DD pitched the idea of a selloff prior to 2018, or a mini-retrenchment partial rebuild, it probably was ignored.   I have a feeling Duquette was a lame duck for the last couple years and wasn't allowed to do what he wanted.   Now we don't know what he wanted, we can only guess.   But in the end the result is the same.

Again, none of this was clear, but I think that's right, Whatever advice Duquette might have given became even less influential. Again from memory, I think it was clear Duquette wanted to trade veterans earlier and was told by Angelos he could explore trades for Britton (maybe others) -- but not for Manny (maybe others) -- and then was told to stop. (Though my memory might be way off, I don't feel like revisiting the details of that unpleasant period.)

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, NCRaven said:

Neither team makes the playoffs.  Neither team is good.  One gets the #1 draft pick and draft pool.  The other is picking 10th.  So there is no practical advantage to winning 75 games over winning 45 games.  You don't want to win 45 forever.  And if you think we've been huge losers too long, I will grant you the right to make that argument.  But, IF 2018 - 2022 leads to a title soon thereafter, flags fly forever.  I think that the fans in Houston and Chicago will accept the rebuilds prior to their Championships.  IF NOT, this really sucked.

I think I might cite Philadelphia every time someone cites Houston and Chicago.

This might not work.  Even if it does work odds are long on them getting a flag.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

Neither team makes the playoffs.  Neither team is good.  One gets the #1 draft pick and draft pool.  The other is picking 10th.  So there is no practical advantage to winning 75 games over winning 45 games.  You don't want to win 45 forever.  And if you think we've been huge losers too long, I will grant you the right to make that argument.  But, IF 2018 - 2022 leads to a title soon thereafter, flags fly forever.  I think that the fans in Houston and Chicago will accept the rebuilds prior to their Championships.  IF NOT, this really sucked.

Well first of all, there is likely more revenue generated and more interest in the team.

Secondly, a 75 win team is very likely to be much closer to contention to a 45 win team.

And btw, there is a good chance if the Os picked 10th in this past draft and still get Cowser and the rest of the guys they drafted.  
 

We just went through a 19 game listing streak, are playing at a historically bad level and could pick 4th in the next draft.  
 

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, there is likely more revenue generated and more interest in the team.

Secondly, a 75 win team is very likely to be much closer to contention to a 45 win team.

And btw, there is a good chance if the Os picked 10th in this past draft and still get Cowser and the rest of the guys they drafted.  
 

We just went through a 19 game listing streak, are playing at a historically bad level and could pick 4th in the next draft.  
 

How historically bad are we if we're going to pick 4th next year?

[NCRaven]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, there is likely more revenue generated and more interest in the team.

Secondly, a 75 win team is very likely to be much closer to contention to a 45 win team.

And btw, there is a good chance if the Os picked 10th in this past draft and still get Cowser and the rest of the guys they drafted.  
 

We just went through a 19 game listing streak, are playing at a historically bad level and could pick 4th in the next draft.  
 

First of all, there is likely to be a higher payroll cost for the mediocre team so the increased game day revenue may be meaningless.  RSN fees are paid by everyone who has a cable service so that remains unchanged.  I agree that advertising revenues would not likely be optimized.

Secondly, I said that mediocrity is only good if it's a stepping stone to sustained excellence.  I already made that point which you conveniently ignored.

And, BTW, we had the #5 pick this year, not the #1.  When we had 1-1 we took Rutschman that acknowledged #1 amateur prospect.  The team that picked 1-1 used the very first pick to take an underslot player so that strategy is not peculiar to the Orioles and Elias.

Finally, if we end up with the 4th pick in the draft, then 3 teams had worse seasons than we did, so that would not be particularly historic.

[NCRaven]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

How historically bad are we if we're going to pick 4th next year?

Beat me to the point. 

 

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

How historically bad are we if we're going to pick 4th next year?

Historically bad enough to have endured the worst stretch of baseball in history if you want to go by the metric in the ESPN article.

I don't think we'll be picking 4th next year.  

[Pickles]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Historically bad enough to have endured the worst stretch of baseball in history if you want to go by the metric in the ESPN article.

I don't think we'll be picking 4th next year.  

Nor do I.

And we have been historically bad.

Just pointing out the logical fallacy.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Nor do I.

And we have been historically bad.

Just pointing out the logical fallacy.

Well, I said we are playing at a historically bad level..and they are.  This is definitely one of the worst team we have seen up until this point in the season.

And if you are say, one of the 50 Worst teams ever and 3 of the other teams happen to be in the same year, you are historically bad. Being in the top 5% or so of worst teams ever is historically bad.

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Well, I said we are playing at a historically bad level..and they are.  This is definitely one of the worst team we have seen up until this point in the season.

I agree.  You just can't have it both ways.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

I agree.  You just can't have it both ways.

Yes you can.  I didn’t say they are the worst team ever and then say they could pick 4th.  That would be a contradiction.

 I said they are playing historically bad and, as I just said, been in the top few % of worst seasons ever is historically bad.

Not sure why you are even arguing this unless you just enjoy trolling, which I’m sure you do.

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Yes you can.  I didn’t say they are the worst team ever and then say they could pick 4th.  I said they are playing historically bad and, as I just said, been in the top few % of worst seasons ever is historically bad.

 

Ok, bud.  You do you.

They are historically bad, and they might pick 4th next year.

Those statements are not in contradiction.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I thought of him.  Davis wasn't the reason he was left unprotected.  The O's had other folks they could have left off.

For whatever reason Elias didn't care to protect him.

That’s one way to look at it.  We’ll never know who Elias wouid have protected if he’d had one more spot available.   But I’d say there’s a decent chance it would have been Pop.   

[Too Tall]

Here's where I am. To paraphrase a slogan from the 1992 election - "It's The Pitching, Stupid!" I understand the rebuild. I get the low draft pick pursuit/need. What I don't get, is the lack of developing or drafting pitching. Offensively, this team isn't great but it isn't a laughing stock by any measure. Defensively - the same. Neither were the main reason for our long losing streaks this year. Where we have taken a critical developmeent phase (in my judgement) to epic levels of low - is pitching. 

I see the long range plan re offense and defense by looking at the recent drafts and our minor leagues. I don't see the same re pitching - except for perhaps - fingers crossed -  a few examples. And, pitching is the most fragile of commodities to nurture and develop. 

In my judgement, you can't rebuild without a solid plan to acquire and develop pitching. I don't see that yet! As others have said, this off season and the next draft will indicate ( to me anyway ) how I view the current regime. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

In my judgement, you can't rebuild without a solid plan to acquire and develop pitching. I don't see that yet! As others have said, this off season and the next draft will indicate ( to me anyway ) how I view the current regime. 

The Astros went and traded for expensive veterans in Verlander and Greinke, but there's no guarantee that quality of pitcher will be available for the Orioles. Plus will ownership be willing to spend the money necessary to even be in the conversation to acquire that caliber of pitcher, or even a pitcher a step down from the Verlander/Greinke level. 

And it's putting a lot more pressure on Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall to make it as starting pitchers. For the Orioles to be playoff contenders in two to three years, it's looking like a requirement for them to produce as Orioles.