What’s your OPS and WAR/162 prediction for Rutschman next year?

[Camden_yardbird]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Which is why it says, in the title, WAR/162.
 

Yea I get it, WAR 162 is normalized and suggests some sort of linear proportional growth.  I dont find much value in that.

What was Alex Bohm's WAR 162 last year?

Jake Cronenworth?

Vastly different results based on their rookie year.

[Il BuonO]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I just feel that his presence, leadership and on field play will make him tremendously valuable to this team immediately. Like he may only be worth 3-4 WAR but the team Could be 10-15 games better with just him on the team. 

Because the pitchers will benefit from him catching instead of someone else.

[InsideCoroner]

I will stay slightly more conservative for his first year — .770 OPS, 2.2 rWAR/162. I expect he will be much better than that, I think it might take a year or two. 

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Yea I get it, WAR 162 is normalized and suggests some sort of linear proportional growth.  I dont find much value in that.

What was Alex Bohm's WAR 162 last year?

Jake Cronenworth?

Vastly different results based on their rookie year.

I just used WAR/162 because we don’t know if Rutschman will be called up on April 15 or June 15 (or some other date, depending on the CBA).    No reason more complicated than that.  

[sportsfan8703]

Where do you bat Rutschman?  Mullins, Rutschman, Mountcastle, Hays, as the 1-4?  

[jamalshw]

55 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Where do you bat Rutschman?  Mullins, Rutschman, Mountcastle, Hays, as the 1-4?  

I'm not sure if he starts out in the top third of the order or gets his feet wet a bit lower first, but eventually, I'd slide him in the 2 or 3 hole. I've liked when it has been Mullins then Mountcastle so I may be keen to put Rutschman in the 3-hole to go L-R-S-R-R (with Mancini 4 and Hays 5...or the other way around--assuming Mancini is still here). If Santander is then hitting sixth, that gives us a respectable top 2/3 of the order. Would be better if they could add a veteran for 3B or SS. 

[NCRaven]

We really are expecting a lot from a rookie catcher.  Myself included.

[backwardsk]

17 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, I think people thinking he’s not going to catch a lot are wrong.  There is no reason not to catch him a lot.  The best catchers catch a lot and do it from the time they enter the league.  Adley shouldn’t be any different.

 

What is a lot?  130-140 games?  More?

[Sports Guy]

46 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

We really are expecting a lot from a rookie catcher.  Myself included.

No, we are expecting a lot from a guy who is supposedly one of the best prospects over the last decade.  
 

If he is as good as advertised, we should all be expecting a lot.  We should be expecting an MVP level player and a guy who can be the ROY. Wander Franco has come right up And played well.

And yes, I know Adley is a C but I think that narrative is overrated.  
 

And btw, I bet our expectations are less than his.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

What is a lot?  130-140 games?  More?

He should catch around 75-85% of the games he is here for. Over a full 162 game season, 130 games is 80%.

[backwardsk]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He should catch around 75-85% of the games he is here for. Over a full 162 game season, 130 games is 80%.

Agreed.  130-140 games is appropriate if he’s up day 1.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, we are expecting a lot from a guy who is supposedly one of the best prospects over the last decade.  
 

If he is as good as advertised, we should all be expecting a lot.  We should be expecting an MVP level player and a guy who can be the ROY. Wander Franco has come right up And played well.

And yes, I know Adley is a C but I think that narrative is overrated.  
 

And btw, I bet our expectations are less than his.

What I expect in his rookie year vs. what I expect in his prime are a bit different.   He’ll be a pretty mature rookie though.   This isn’t Vlad Jr. coming up at age 20.   

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What I expect in his rookie year vs. what I expect in his prime are a bit different.   He’ll be a pretty mature rookie though.   This isn’t Vlad Jr. coming up at age 20.   

No reason he shouldn’t hit the ground running in his rookie year.  The top guys are normally good from the beginning.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He should catch around 75-85% of the games he is here for. Over a full 162 game season, 130 games is 80%.

I’m guessing they start him off with a lighter workload than that.   This year he’s only caught in 79 games (77 starts) of the 119 games he’s played in.   It would be a lot to ramp him up to 130 in his first year in the majors.   I’ll say it will be 70-75% of the games he’s eligible to play in (which wouid be 113-121 games in a full season, but we don’t know exactly when he’ll get called up).   

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

No reason he shouldn’t hit the ground running in his rookie year.  The top guys are normally good from the beginning.

Is anybody saying he won’t be good?