2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Frobby, there doesn’t need to be one piece of evidence shown that this strategy is extremely flawed.

We all know the draft is a complete crapshoot.  We all know that the draft rarely produces good players beyond the first round.  This isn’t something we need to see written down on paper.  We know it. 
 

So, when you have a strategy that is based around the idea that we take a lesser talent first (when elite talent is available) to obtain other talent later, even knowing it’s extremely unlikely that talent pans out, it’s a poor strategy.

Now, you want the evidence does show?  That the first overall pick is far more valuable than any other pick in the draft.  The history of the draft tells us that.  So, you don’t use that pick on an inferior player just to “save money for later” especially when the need to save money for later doesn’t exist anyway.  Its a made up concept. 
 

The Orioles should go BPa with the first 5 picks…cost shouldn’t matter.  You take the best 5 players you possibly can because you likely will not have another opportunity anytime soon to have the first pick and 5 of the top 75 overall.  There is no other strategy that makes sense, especially within the context of this team throwing seasons away.

Take Jones and give him 8.5M.  That’s the record. You save 300k under slot, he gets to be the first pick and is able to say he owns the record.  He isn’t turning that down.  He isn’t going back to college with those things in his pocket. Zippy chance.  

Then keep taking BPA and don’t worry about how much they cost.

This all assumes the Orioles think Jones is the clear BPA.  That may be what they think, but I don’t know that.  

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This all assumes the Orioles think Jones is the clear BPA.  That may be what they think, but I don’t know that.  
 

 

He doesn’t have to be the clear BPA.  You rank a board.  You don’t say, well we have a 4 way tie for first place.  
 

Whoever is first is the guy they should take.  Money means nothing here.

[RZNJ]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

He doesn’t have to be the clear BPA.  You rank a board.  You don’t say, well we have a 4 way tie for first place.  
 

Whoever is first is the guy they should take.  Money means nothing here.

A hypothetical for you.   The Orioles have Andruw Jones #1 on their board and Termarr Johnson #2 on their board.   Half of the scouts like Jones.  Half like Johnson.  It's close.   Jones is asking for 9M (but you think you can get him for 8M).   Johnson says he'll take 6M.    If you take Johnson you have a deal in place and at least 2M to play with on your next picks, perhaps you can take a prep pitcher like Owen Murphy who will only sign for 3.5M or go to college.   If you take Jones, you have to negotiate with him with the hopes of getting him down to 8M.   He won't agree to the 8M before the draft.   Now you can't be sure if you can get him for 8M.  You might have to call his bluff by going down to the wire.   However, you can't conduct your draft as if you've got him for 8M.    Can you see any reasoning for taking Termarr Johnson in this hypothetical?

[seak05]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

He doesn’t have to be the clear BPA.  You rank a board.  You don’t say, well we have a 4 way tie for first place.  
 

Whoever is first is the guy they should take.  Money means nothing here.

I know that's how the prospect lists do it bc lists are fun, but I would imagine the Orioles actually have them in tiered groupings, because people aren't actually a test grade and they don't come with numbers 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

21 hours ago, RZNJ said:

First you said Elias made typically awful picks. Then you said you only meant the first round were typically awful. He's only had 3 drafts.  I'm assuming you didn't think Adley was a typically awful pick. That leaves Kjerstad and Cowser. I'm assuming you thought they were the typically awful picks?   If I'm wrong, please clear it up for me.

Correct. Adley was the guy. Kerjstad was upset over def but get the strategy…def, agree with you. Cowser (who I don’t dislike at all) was a bad pick. You know who I wanted. You are rebuilding…you want to be strong up the middle and with good pitching. Adley check. SS over another corner outfielder and not even close. Just a dumb pick imo. Frustrating.

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Correct. Adley was the guy. Kerjstad was upset over def but get the strategy…def, agree with you. Cowser (who I don’t dislike at all) was a bad pick. You know who I wanted. You are rebuilding…you want to be strong up the middle and with good pitching. Adley check. SS over another corner outfielder and not even close. Just a dumb pick imo. Frustrating.

So typical in your vocabulary means once?

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So typical in your vocabulary means once?

A consistent underslot strategy even when it doesn’t make sense for the goals of making the team a champion. Seems like a bit of stubbornness. 

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

A consistent underslot strategy even when it doesn’t make sense for the goals of making the team a champion. Seems like a bit of stubbornness. 

Consistent underslot strategy the last two years where one of those years we passed on what looks like a bust to take a player who has just started his career and two promising overslot prospects.  It doesn't look like it was a bad strategy in 2020.  Does it?

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, RZNJ said:

A hypothetical for you.   The Orioles have Andruw Jones #1 on their board and Termarr Johnson #2 on their board.   Half of the scouts like Jones.  Half like Johnson.  It's close.   Jones is asking for 9M (but you think you can get him for 8M).   Johnson says he'll take 6M.    If you take Johnson you have a deal in place and at least 2M to play with on your next picks, perhaps you can take a prep pitcher like Owen Murphy who will only sign for 3.5M or go to college.   If you take Jones, you have to negotiate with him with the hopes of getting him down to 8M.   He won't agree to the 8M before the draft.   Now you can't be sure if you can get him for 8M.  You might have to call his bluff by going down to the wire.   However, you can't conduct your draft as if you've got him for 8M.    Can you see any reasoning for taking Termarr Johnson in this hypothetical?

I’m not taking Johnson under any scenario.   He’s not a guy I would entertain for the pick.

And again, the money is irrelevant because you can do what you want in the draft if you choose. 

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, seak05 said:

I know that's how the prospect lists do it bc lists are fun, but I would imagine the Orioles actually have them in tiered groupings, because people aren't actually a test grade and they don't come with numbers 

It’s 100% how it’s done.  

[Paul in Virginia]

Players who stood out at 2022 Draft Combine workout (mlb.com)

 

Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola (Fla.) JC
Collier reclassified from the 2023 Draft to 2022, graduated early and attended junior college in what would have been his junior high school season, then headed to the Cape Cod League and became the youngest player (age 17) anyone could remember in the recent history of the prestigious summer circuit. After going 3-for-9 with three walks in his first three games on the Cape, he flew to San Diego and took one of the best rounds of batting practice. The son of former big league infielder Lou Collier didn't shoot for the fences and repeatedly barreled balls with one of the best left-handed strokes in this Draft.

 

Termarr Johnson, 2B, Mays HS (Atlanta)
The highest-ranked prospect to participate in the workout, Johnson is the best high school hitter in recent memory. He took a professional batting practice, working the ball around the park and displaying effortless pull-side power.

[ShoelesJoe]

Nice interview with Collier at the combine. And good to see Adam Jones in the role of elder statesman for the game. 

 

https://www.mlb.com/video/cam-collier-at-the-draft-combine

[RZNJ]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s 100% how it’s done.  

Are you saying that you know 100% how baseball draft boards are setup?

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Are you saying that you know 100% how baseball draft boards are setup?

I’m saying when you watch these drafts, for all sports, You usuallY see the draft boards and the players ranked.

When the GMs discuss it, they talk about this.  
 

Now, is it possible that team X doesn’t rank players?  I guess but I find that hard to believe.  It’s not really logical, especially when you have the first pick.  
 

[Sports Guy]

I mean, the team already has these guys ranked in tiers.  Elias is saying they are choosing between 5 guys.  That’s the tier.  They will now rank those 5 by whatever criteria they use and make a decision based on those rankings.