Orioles signing Rougned Odor

[Just Regular]

Washed up and all, he probably represents an upgrade to Valaika from last year's team.

I am more curious to see Gutierrez and Mateo in April, but it isn't like either of them or Urias are Cal Ripken.

Feels a little bit like a sign the Jahmai Jones glass looks half empty to the Club, as if you are penciling in those other guys as "starters", seems like he should get to be penciled in as an infield reserve.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Some moderately interesting and likely affordable non-tenders/DFAs/etc. for the Orioles that might actually have at least a modicum of potential future positive value for whoever signs them and at least 1 further year of team control like Steven Brault and Johan Camargo, and we sign the ghost of Rougned Odor for the league minimum. We are really going to tank another year (or at least not try to meaningfully improve a team that tanked in 2021 before OD 2022) it would appear.

Elias is bold and shameless, I'll give him that lol.

[spiritof66]

I'm surprised that so many of you don't have the same take I do as to what's going on with the Orioles.

I start with the premise that Elias has a solid and pretty conventional understanding about how to build a winning ballclub: you have to gather talent from all available sources, and try to arrange it so that players of different ages and experience levels will all be able to contribute at the same time, without trying to arrange it so that every important player's age or period of team control is virtually identical. I am confident that he appreciates that because the Orioles are so far behind the Astros and most other teams in reaping the benefits of international talent they've signed and developed, they will have to be aggressive in bringing in talent from outside the system in order to compete for a division title. 

I've never fully understood in detail how the Houston-style rebuild is supposed to work in Baltimore. But I do know that to build a contending team you can't just keep piling up high draft picks and adding prospects to your minor league teams. You have to seize opportunities, whenever they present themselves, to bring in talent that you think is going to improve the team right away. "Flipping the switch" has always seemed to me to be an unfortunate metaphor for improving an MLB team: it doesn't make sense to lock yourself into a plan that has you trying to shift instantaneously from minimizing spending, amassing minor-league talent and not caring about winning to acquiring the talent you need to compete. The opportunities aren't likely to present themselves on that kind of convenient, highly efficient timetable.

If you're serious about winning more than 60-70 games, let alone contending, you have to act when those opportunities to improve the team arise, even though it means paying much-higher-than minimum salaries before the team is very good or after a player's skills have diminished. Elias hasn't done that, and it's pretty clear as he fills up the roster with guys who won't move the needle that he's not trying to do that. I've read a lot about how he might grow or acquire bats or arms, but I see no sign, absolutely none, that he's getting ready to add established or expensive talent or that he has any plan to do that, let alone when he would do that.

To me, the only logical inference is that Elias's task isn't to build a winning team. It's to get the team ready for a sale soon after Peter Angelos dies, while trying to maintain some hope and good will from Oriole fans. Every decision the Orioles have made since 2018 is consistent with the conclusion that the Angeloses want to take reasonable steps to sell the team: Build up the most neglected pieces of the infrastructure (acquiring and developing international talent and, so we're told, analytics) that would enhance the value of the franchise (or more accurately, whose egregious absence would depress that value). Defer the promotion of the most valuable talent in the system, maximizing the term of a buyer's control. Minimize future salary commitments (including cleaning up the Chris Davis situation as best they could). Put together a minimum-cost roster that can be retained, cast off or traded, by current ownership as well as by a buyer. (This is where the Odor signing fits in. The Orioles want infield depth for 2022, but not for the reasons most teams do: to keep the team's performance up in the event of injury or unavailability for some other reason. The Orioles seek that depth so that, if one of these infielders establishes trade value, they can move him for another prospect or two, increasing the supply of low-salaried talent and furthering the illusion that they're building for the future.) This just doesn't look like a team with a capable general manager who is searching for and implementing ways to build a team that will more games, so I don't believe that's what it is. 

There is a lot of overlap between things a team does in the early stages of a Houston-style rebuild and reasonable things to do when the 92-year-old owner can't sell the team now (for tax reasons, and maybe others) but whose heirs expect to sell it when he succumbs. But eventually those two paths will start to diverge, as the rebuilding takes steps to improve the team: acquiring better talent, even though that requires payroll increases and multi-year commitments; promoting the best MiL players, even rushing them in some instances; trading surplus talent for talent where there's a shortage; entering into and extending contracts of valuable players. To me, the Orioles should have begun to do some of those things a year ago, but I can see an argument for deferring it to this off-season. The fact that the Orioles haven't begun and don't appear about to begin the process of building the team, now that it's been fully torn down, tells me that's not the plan and won't be the plan until there's new ownership in place.

I don't expect the Angeloses or Elias (or anyone else) to share their intentions with us. All I can do is try to figure out what's going on from what they do. (They say virtually nothing, and I discount that anyway.) What they do tells me that, right now, there's no plan to try to build a winning team. (There is a potential flaw in what I believe is the Angelos's plan: if Peter Angelos lives beyond another five years or so, the team may be embarrassed into spending some money. Of course, the Angeloses may know much more about the likelihood of that than I do.)

Am I missing something? Have the Orioles done anything that supports the conclusion that present ownership intends to take steps to build the Orioles into a competitive team, including spending the many, many millions of dollars that will be needed to do that?

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think they should trade for DeJong, if he is available.  
 

For third?  I think going after Brian Anderson is one way to go.  These guys are 1-3 year options.  They don’t block anyone now and it allows those guys time to develop, if they ever do.  
 

Vastly improves the defense, brings better OBP and moves Mateo to the super UTI role he should be in.

Much more upside than Odor or Galvis or anyone like that.  

But I know you understand that getting mad at the Orioles for not making move for a player that may not be available or who may have a price tag (in player returned) none of us would agree to is silly.

We don't know what is being done behind the scenes and unless the team leaks it, no one is getting information in the Baltimore press. 

Here's what I get out of this. The Orioles signed a guy who is depth at 2B and maybe 3B, for the league minimum, when they don't have any other viable candidates ready outside of Urias and Matteo up the middle, and Gutierrez at 3B.

Since he signed for so little, this doesn't preclude them from making any other deals once they start making deals again when a CBA is agreed to.

I thought this was going to be an expensive deal so I was like WTF. Now that it's a major league minimum deal, I'm like, eh (shoulder shrug).

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

But I know you understand that getting mad at the Orioles for not making move for a player that may not be available or who may have a price tag (in player returned) none of us would agree to is silly.

We don't know what is being done behind the scenes and unless the team leaks it, no one is getting information in the Baltimore press. 

Here's what I get out of this. The Orioles signed a guy who is depth at 2B and maybe 3B, for the league minimum, when they don't have any other viable candidates ready outside of Urias and Matteo up the middle, and Gutierrez at 3B.

Since he signed for so little, this doesn't preclude them from making any other deals once they start making deals again when a CBA is agreed to.

I thought this was going to be an expensive deal so I was like WTF. Now that it's a major league minimum deal, I'm like, eh (shoulder shrug).

Well, DeJong isn’t the only guy.  There are always guys you can get.  He is the one off the top of my head that is reasonably available.  
 

The problem is they just don’t care.  They don’t care about winning.  They don’t care about improving (unless it’s internal improvements).  That’s where I have the biggest issue.

Yea, Odor is a bad baseball player and has shown that for most of the last 6 years but this goes beyond that.  The team should care and they don’t and it’s annoying.

[Frobby]

Sorry, spiritof66, but I don’t buy it.   I don’t think Elias would have taken the job without having the goal of building a perennial contender.   

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Am I missing something? Have the Orioles done anything that supports the conclusion that present ownership intends to take steps to build the Orioles into a competitive team, including spending the many, many millions of dollars that will be needed to do that?

You have every right to be skeptical of ownership. The other possibility is that they are transitioning to something like the Tampa model, mostly building from within with the exception of smart targeted free agent spending on team friendly deals that fill particular needs. That probably means no more lengthy Chris Davis type of contracts, ever. That is what Elias's has suggested in his public comments about the master plan. I think recent years can fit either narrative. 

[RocBball11]

Sportsguy who would you suggest we trade to acquire DeJong and Anderson?

in theory the idea of more quality stop gaps makes total sense. The problem is devaluing your young controllable assets before you know who is going to make.

the problem with the orioles in the past is we hung out hats on 1-3 prospects because the system had zero depth. As Mike and team continue to build the depth the worst thing I feel we can do is trade away that depth before we are ready to win. I want that depth here so we can acquire our Justin Verlander when the time is right or trade Erod for Andrew Miller and feel we parted with only serviceable pitching prospect.

The rebuild only works if the core players come from the prospect list. We need to keep the depth to insure we hit on enough core players to have a foundation.

We’d all regret two years from now picking the wrong prospect pitcher to trade for a year of Paul DeJong and 5 more 2022 wins

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Sorry, spiritof66, but I don’t buy it.   I don’t think Elias would have taken the job without having the goal of building a perennial contender.   

The O's were the last job open that off-season right?  Then they had the sign stealing scandal right? 

I wonder if Elias hadn't taken the O's job if he ever would have received another offer.

Maybe the 2021 Mets. 

 

I'm of the mindset that these jobs are really hard to get so if it is your life goal you probably shouldn't be turning them down if you get offered one. 

I wonder if Tony LaCava is kicking himself?

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Am I missing something? Have the Orioles done anything that supports the conclusion that present ownership intends to take steps to build the Orioles into a competitive team, including spending the many, many millions of dollars that will be needed to do that?

Why would team that is just trying to cut corners for sale build a $10+ million training facility in the Dominican? 

The Orioles were a 110 loss team last year? What do you expect them to by this offseason to make them sudden contenders? 

I have no idea whether Elias will have the funds to acquire talent when it's time, but this is not the time unless a unique talent was available that would help us at a position of need in 2-3 years from now and further. He says he will, but I will agree with you that until he does so, it's still up in the air.

Where I disagree with you is that Elias has shown he will spend in the draft and in the international market now that his scouting has caught up there. I expect them to use their full allotment this J2 signing season. 

I'm not taking up for anyone, but calling it like I see it. I think this rebuild has been done in the fashion that was take time. If his scouting and development allows for the farm system to keep spitting out good major league players, this team will have a chance to be competitive year in and year out. 

I will say if the Orioles are another 110 loss team this year then I will start questioning the methods because at this point, he has to start seeing some returns on the players his staff and scouts have indentified as being able to be productive major league players.

My expectation is the team will be better (perhaps 72-90) in 2022, mediocre in in 2023 (81-81) and competitive in 2024 and beyond. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RocBball11 said:

Sportsguy who would you suggest we trade to acquire DeJong and Anderson?

in theory the idea of more quality stop gaps makes total sense. The problem is devaluing your young controllable assets before you know who is going to make.

the problem with the orioles in the past is we hung out hats on 1-3 prospects because the system had zero depth. As Mike and team continue to build the depth the worst thing I feel we can do is trade away that depth before we are ready to win. I want that depth here so we can acquire our Justin Verlander when the time is right or trade Erod for Andrew Miller and feel we parted with only serviceable pitching prospect.

The rebuild only works if the core players come from the prospect list. We need to keep the depth to insure we hit on enough core players to have a foundation.

We’d all regret two years from now picking the wrong prospect pitcher to trade for a year of Paul DeJong and 5 more 2022 wins

Those guys won’t require a lot.  We have the depth outside of our top 15-20 guys right go get them and not let it bother us.  

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, RocBball11 said:

Sportsguy who would you suggest we trade to acquire DeJong and Anderson?

in theory the idea of more quality stop gaps makes total sense. The problem is devaluing your young controllable assets before you know who is going to make.

the problem with the orioles in the past is we hung out hats on 1-3 prospects because the system had zero depth. As Mike and team continue to build the depth the worst thing I feel we can do is trade away that depth before we are ready to win. I want that depth here so we can acquire our Justin Verlander when the time is right or trade Erod for Andrew Miller and feel we parted with only serviceable pitching prospect.

The rebuild only works if the core players come from the prospect list. We need to keep the depth to insure we hit on enough core players to have a foundation.

We’d all regret two years from now picking the wrong prospect pitcher to trade for a year of Paul DeJong and 5 more 2022 wins

Excellent first post! 

I agree. Coming off a 110 loss season is not the time to start trading away prospects for players who don't make us competitive in 2024 and beyond. The organization must draft, sign and develop young talent to be consistently competitive. That will be how they acquire that high priced talent that hopefully makes them perennial contenders with a chance to for a World Championship.

[Camden_yardbird]

Let's talk best case scenario for this signing.  Roughed Odor was signed for 1 year.

His best season was a .798 OPS, and his average is a .722.  Let's say he rebounds to a .750ish hitter.  Show reasonable power, and maybe some speed, with no OBP skills.

He has 2 seasons with a positive dWAR and the 1.2 he put up in 2018 was an outlier.  I think we can safely say he is not a defensive asset, so best case maybe he his net neutral.  Either way he is not helping the Orioles young pitchers.

So now we have two paths.  He puts this up for the entire season, no trade, and then becomes a FA again, but costs more than the Orioles are willing to give.  In 2023 the Orioles have netted nothing.

Or come the trade deadline, he becomes a trade commodity. 

Comps: Josh Harrison, who had a .791 OPS last year was traded with Yan Gomes, the package netted 1 top 30 prospect and some other pieces.

Jorge Soler, a DH basically, having a down year netted the Braves #21 prospect, a pitcher projected as a future reliever.  Soler had a .867 OPS in July before the trade.

Galvis was hitting .720 last year before the Orioles shipped him out.  Galvis was a decent defensive SS and netted Burch, a prospect outside of the Phillies top 30.

Cesar Hernandez was acquired by the CWS for a prospect outside the top 30.

My point is this, even IF Odor rebounds, has a great half season and is traded, the most the Orioles are probably getting is an prospect somewhere around the 28-40 range.  Thats if a team wants to trade for a bat first, hot headed 2B, with little to no defensive value.

I hope he proves me wrong, but even the best case scenario it doesn't seem like Elias has added to a future playoff team.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Why would team that is just trying to cut corners for sale build a $10+ million training facility in the Dominican? 

 

While I don't think the team is for sale I don't think that building the facility in any way shows the team isn't for sale.

Spending 10M on that facility is going to make the team more attractive to buyers and probably increase the value of the franchise by at least the 10M they will be spending.  From what I've read the Orioles were the only team without a facility of that approximate type.  If I'm buying a team that's a feature I'm expecting to be in place.

[Jammer7]

12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, it’s all of it.

1) He’s terrible

2). What’s the hurry?  Again, you can sign replacement level IFers whenever you want.  You found Urias in Mexico.  Probably could go down there and find a better player than Odor.

3) Why give him a ML deal and a 40 man roster spot?

4) Why arent they striving to get better players?

 

FYI, Urias was claimed on waivers from St. Louis. They had signed him from Mexico 2-3 years earlier, IIRC.

He’s a LH bat on a predominantly RH team, albeit not a great OPS+. Although he hit LHP better than RHP I. 2021. From what I have seen, he is a solid to above average 2B/3B. He’ll be a role player for us initially, depending on match ups. 

Its not a glamorous move, but the offseason just started. Why all of the discontent? Trying to get your holiday ranting done early? lol

I do agree with not taking at bats away from Urias, Mateo and Gutierrez. But I think he will actually be just fine filling in and giving them appropriate days off. He’s a solid veteran role player and only 27. There may be some things they can work with as far as swing decisions. Maybe they can convince him to alter his approach in some small ways. I don’t think this loves the needle much, probably. But I am not going to judge the efforts of the offseason on December 1.