Orioles signing Rougned Odor

[spiritof66]

50 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You have every right to be skeptical of ownership. The other possibility is that they are transitioning to something like the Tampa model, mostly building from within with the exception of smart targeted free agent spending on team friendly deals that fill particular needs. That probably means no more lengthy Chris Davis type of contracts, ever. That is what Elias's has suggested in his public comments about the master plan. I think recent years can fit either narrative. 

I am skeptical of ownership about lots of things for lots of reasons, and have been since the 1990s, long before it became fashionable. For a long time that was based on Peter Angelos's deficient character and lack of kill in running a baseball team, and especially his delusions about his own knowledge and expertise. But I always thought he was devoted to making the Orioles successful in his own foolish, destructive and pig-headed way. 

This is different. Sure, the Angelos sons are incompetent in lots of ways, but they seem to understand that and let Elias make the baseball-related decisions. But I don't believe the Angelos will have the financial resources (or the good will with MLB and the other owners) to hold on to the Orioles after Peter Angelos's death. I believe the Angeloses understand that's at least a serious possibility, and that they don't plan to spend money on salaries to improve a team they're not going to be able to keep. I believe every single thing the Orioles have and haven't done for the past three-plus years is consistent with that conclusion. When Elias does something that shows he is trying to build a contending ML club and has authority to incur the increased costs that will entail--as opposed to reducing payroll while building up what had been very weak or non-existent infrastructure that a prospective buyer might care about--let me know.

I'm pretty sure I know what you mean by "master plan," though I'm not sure I've seen it spelled out by anyone within the organization. In my understanding, it consists of tearing up an existing bad team by trading valuable veterans or letting them leave as free agents, saving ownership millions of dollars and "earning" very high draft choices while giving the fans really crappy, low-cost baseball, developing those high draft choices (and others) in the minor-league system, followed by building a better team built around talented minor leaguers, along with free agent signings, waiver/Rule 5 guys, and trades.

I believe that if that truly were the master plan, the second phase would have started already. Assume that Peter Angelos and his family continue their majority ownership of the team. When do you think that improvement of the major-league team should be underway, and starting at that point when do you think the Orioles would have a reasonable shot at playing post-season baseball? 

[spiritof66]

14 minutes ago, Philip said:

Very logical. Whether it is correct or not remains to be seen, but it definitely fits what we know. However, if this is the case, I’m moving to Seattle, where they are building an exciting team, and they have a very good broadcasting crew and brilliant writers at Lookout Landing. 

You could just watch the M's on MLB.tv and read the local writers over the Internet. If you do go, be sure to take plenty of raingear, and sometime say hello to the nice people at Ebbets Field Flannels.

[interloper]

17 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Well statcast had him as well above average defensively at 2B. His bat though has been terrible for that last two years. The way he's declined, I wonder if they have his actual birth certificate because he's was an old 27 last year. Unless he was injured, his running speed has fallen off a cliff the last two years.

Basically, my issue with the signing is that he could steal ABs from Urias, who is a positive WAR player. If he doesn't steal ABs from Urias, I don't have too much of a problem with it I guess. But that means either Odor or Urias is playing a lot of 3B, which isn't ideal, or Urias is playing a lot of SS, which isn't ideal either. 

[Philip]

6 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

You could just watch the M's on MLB.tv and read the local writers over the Internet. If you do go, be sure to take plenty of raingear, and sometime say hello to the nice people at Ebbets Field Flannels.

That made me laugh. I’ve been to Seattle twice, and each time it was on the two days in the summer when it was not raining. What a beautiful city. And it matters a lot to me that they also have a superb Symphony orchestra and a wonderful opera company

[Tony-OH]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think Elias would be doing a lot more at the ML level if he had ownership that cared.

I think I'll need to disagree with you again. I think the Angelos brothers discussed Elias' plan with him before he was hired and they knew he was planning on gutting the major league team to get high draft picks all along. I don't think Elias was trying to win at all so far at the major league level and his moves showed that. Every move, including signing stop gaps were made with the chance to get something in return for a winning team when the organization was ready to win in his opinion.

While people can disagree with his plan, I truly believe he's following his plan to a T. Losing sucks, and I don't think Elias likes to lose anymore than any of us, but he's sticking to his plan of building from within and when he's got a farm system ready to start delivering talent on a yearly basis, and he knows who is in house talent is at the major league level, he then can start to focus on outside talent to fill the holes, particularly in the rotation.

I think we've gotten to the point of the plan where some of the in house talent will show who are part of the future and where the holes are while the rest of the organization gets deeper with J2 singings and another draft.

 

 

[Tony-OH]

12 minutes ago, interloper said:

Basically, my issue with the signing is that he could steal ABs from Urias, who is a positive WAR player. If he doesn't steal ABs from Urias, I don't have too much of a problem with it I guess. But that means either Odor or Urias is playing a lot of 3B, which isn't ideal, or Urias is playing a lot of SS, which isn't ideal either. 

I don't like Odor will be taking PAs away from Urias with a major league minimum contract.  Trust me, if Odor is starting over Urias come opening day unless Urias is injured, I will not be happy. But I don't see that happening. Right now the organization as it stands today at December 1st is thin in middle infield talent. While Urias is a better fit at 2B, he can play SS so if Mateo flames out or is not recovered, Urias can slide over. 

 

[Just Regular]

31 minutes ago, SteveA said:

We have 11 hours and 13 minutes before the offseason is done.

Last week I read something that mentioned the possibility that minor-league signings, even those with camp invites, might not be affected by the lockout.   Some of the 2022 Orioles acquisition target plays may not be affected at all!

On the $10mm+ DR price tag, I see that one more like finally putting that first 5% in a 401(k) when your employer gives a dollar-for-dollar match, it is malpractice not to do so.   Draft pools, same deal - they are dollars in a market (Adley now past 10x his bonus in estimated surplus value based on one source's guess) rigged where positive ROI in the aggregate for the Clubs extremely likely.

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't like Odor will be taking PAs away from Urias with a major league minimum contract.  Trust me, if Odor is starting over Urias come opening day unless Urias is injured, I will not be happy. But I don't see that happening. Right now the organization as it stands today at December 1st is thin in middle infield talent. While Urias is a better fit at 2B, he can play SS so if Mateo flames out or is not recovered, Urias can slide over. 

 

I sure hope you're right. The last thing this team needs is to replace a .360 OBP player with a .280 OBP strikeout machine. That would have me seriously questioning, well, everything. Lol. 

I suppose it's early to get my rankles up about it with the lack of depth you noted. I think it's the ML deal as opposed to MiL that has me worried. 

[spiritof66]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think I'll need to disagree with you again. I think the Angelos brothers discussed Elias' plan with him before he was hired and they knew he was planning on gutting the major league team to get high draft picks all along. I don't think Elias was trying to win at all so far at the major league level and his moves showed that. Every move, including signing stop gaps were made with the chance to get something in return for a winning team when the organization was ready to win in his opinion.

While people can disagree with his plan, I truly believe he's following his plan to a T. Losing sucks, and I don't think Elias likes to lose anymore than any of us, but he's sticking to his plan of building from within and when he's got a farm system ready to start delivering talent on a yearly basis, and he knows who is in house talent is at the major league level, he then can start to focus on outside talent to fill the holes, particularly in the rotation.

I think we've gotten to the point of the plan where some of the in house talent will show who are part of the future and where the holes are while the rest of the organization gets deeper with J2 singings and another draft.

 

 

There's a lot of "when he does this" or "when this happens" in here. You know the talent that's in the system as well as anybody. When do you think the Orioles start spending money on guys who are acquired not just to fill up space, but to make the team better?

And using that date, when do you think the Orioles get to "contention," which I would define as 90+ wins or in a division race in mid-September?

One thing that's beside the point, but I'm curious about. You refer to "the Angelos brothers," and I usually say "the Angeloses," meaning the same thing. Is there some reason to believe Lou Angelos, who is not listed as having any position with the Orioles other than being a limited partner, is involved in the decision-making process? I don't know that he is or isn't.

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I believe that if that truly were the master plan, the second phase would have started already. Assume that Peter Angelos and his family continue their majority ownership of the team. When do you think that improvement of the major-league team should be underway, and starting at that point when do you think the Orioles would have a reasonable shot at playing post-season baseball? 

I do think it would be reasonable to see some spending in free agency this year, particularly on pitching. I do not think it has to be before December 1st. The problem is I (and I think Elias) would not want to do one of these 10 year overpay contracts. The universe of pitchers willing to come to a losing team in a hitter's park on a team friendly deal is pretty small. I think we will end up with more than Odor but probably less than most of us (including me) are hoping for. 

I do not expect to see us completely flip the switch until we get at least some established success out of the young players. I think Elias would really have liked to see at least one of those young pitchers step up.  Remember also we are still paying for Chris Davis (he has agreed to restructure the dollars, not forgive them) among others. The organization Elias inherited had the unusual combination of both terrible farm system, terrible MLB team, and terrible contracts. I firmly believe that what the Rangers are doing is foolish and we are better off going with a slower long term approach. 

Maybe we are tanking to sell, maybe we are rebuilding to the Tampa model. I choose to believe the latter because if the former is true there is no point in discussing the future or even rooting for the Orioles at that this point. 

 

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, interloper said:

I sure hope you're right. The last thing this team needs is to replace a .360 OBP player with a .280 OBP strikeout machine. That would have me seriously questioning, well, everything. Lol. 

I suppose it's early to get my rankles up about it with the lack of depth you noted. I think it's the ML deal as opposed to MiL that has me worried. 

Unless the CBA changes, he can be cut in spring training and not be owed a dime outside spring training per diem.

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think I'll need to disagree with you again. I think the Angelos brothers discussed Elias' plan with him before he was hired and they knew he was planning on gutting the major league team to get high draft picks all along. I don't think Elias was trying to win at all so far at the major league level and his moves showed that. Every move, including signing stop gaps were made with the chance to get something in return for a winning team when the organization was ready to win in his opinion.

While people can disagree with his plan, I truly believe he's following his plan to a T. Losing sucks, and I don't think Elias likes to lose anymore than any of us, but he's sticking to his plan of building from within and when he's got a farm system ready to start delivering talent on a yearly basis, and he knows who is in house talent is at the major league level, he then can start to focus on outside talent to fill the holes, particularly in the rotation.

I think we've gotten to the point of the plan where some of the in house talent will show who are part of the future and where the holes are while the rest of the organization gets deeper with J2 singings and another draft.

 

 

The thing is Tony, plans change.  Guys get better quicker, guys come out of nowhere, guys fail, etc….I think he absolutely discussed this with ownership and it’s a big reason why he was hired..because they don’t want to spend on the payroll.  They hired the perfect GM for their way of thinking.

That said, if ownership said you can take the payroll to 75m this year, I don’t think he says, no thanks, im staying at 40M.

[interloper]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Unless the CBA changes, he can be cut in spring training and not be owed a dime outside spring training per diem.

Ah, good to know, thanks. I guess it's kind of like Yolmer Sanchez last year. 

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

There's a lot of "when he does this" or "when this happens" in here. You know the talent that's in the system as well as anybody. When do you think the Orioles start spending money on guys who are acquired not just to fill up space, but to make the team better?

And using that date, when do you think the Orioles get to "contention," which I would define as 90+ wins or in a division race in mid-September?

One thing that's beside the point, but I'm curious about. You refer to "the Angelos brothers," and I usually say "the Angeloses," meaning the same thing. Is there some reason to believe Lou Angelos, who is not listed as having any position with the Orioles other than being a limited partner, is involved in the decision-making process? I don't know that he is or isn't.

Well I've put out what I think their plan is but you may have missed it. 

I think 2022 is when they are trying to win with prospects. No more Matt Harvey's, trying to start relievers (Lopez/Akin) bringing up 30 year old bad knuckleballers or giving starts to never should of bes in Spenser Watkins and Tom Eshleman and giving 13 starts to a guy under performing (Kremer). 

I think that could mean a 71-90 ish team this year especially with Rutschman arriving and Stowers and Rodriguez close behind. 

2023 is when you start knowing where you holes are. By the end of 2022 we we know a lot more about our top prospects like Mayo, Hall, Henderson, Cowser, Westburg and maybe even Kjerstad. We should also have a pretty good idea on Kremer, Akin, Lowther, T. Wells, A. Wells, Bradish, Baumann, and Zimmermann and what roles if any they will have on a winning Orioles team in the future. I would like to see the Orioles as a .500 or slightly better team by 2023.

That makes 2024 the year where they should be ready to acquire impact talent to fill the holes and compete. Hopefully perennially.

AS for you last question, I always say brothers because they both were there at the Elias introuction. I have no other insights into how the ownership is handled currently. 

[Sports Guy]

Lou is involved but it’s more behind the scenes.