ZiPS projects the 2022 O’s to go 64-98

[Frobby]

Just now, tntoriole said:

And not surprisingly they said zero about their Os error in this article lol 

I’m not sure what you’re implying.  The article was written by ZiPS’ creator, Dave Szymborski, who is a Baltimore-area native and an Orioles fan.  And the article does mention the Orioles a couple of times.   It doesn’t get into detail about why ZiPS missed on the Orioles, but it doesn’t go into detail about any other teams, either.   

[tntoriole]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not sure what you’re implying.  The article was written by ZiPS’ creator, Dave Szymborski, who is a Baltimore-area native and an Orioles fan.  And the article does mention the Orioles a couple of times.   It doesn’t get into detail about why ZiPS missed on the Orioles, but it doesn’t go into detail about any other teams, either.   

Not my cup of tea … i will take Sporting News predictions lol 

[Frobby]

ZiPS’ “too early” projection for the 2023 O’s is 78 wins.  Szymborski comments:

“One can see here the strong position the Orioles are in if they chose to be aggressive this offseason; they’ve had enough happy player development surprises that they can legitimately say they start the offseason in the same galaxy as the rest of the division.”

I guess that’s a compliment.  

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/

[Redskins Rick]

I think most publications/analysts had zero clue this team would play at the level they did, including the Oriole's own front office.

 

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

ZiPS’ “too early” projection for the 2023 O’s is 78 wins.  Szymborski comments:

“One can see here the strong position the Orioles are in if they chose to be aggressive this offseason; they’ve had enough happy player development surprises that they can legitimately say they start the offseason in the same galaxy as the rest of the division.”

I guess that’s a compliment.  

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/

I get that these are 'too early' and 'too conservative' etc. etc.  But the Marlins and D-backs being more likely to win the WS than the O's?  If it's based on current rosters, I really don't get the Marlins.  If it's based on projections, I can kinda get ARI (because they have more established SP) but not the gap in %.

Anyway, I had a chuckle at the projections.

[Just Regular]

6 wins shy of the sixth-best AL projection, the Angels being one of them at 84 wins helped by Tyler Anderson and Hunter Renfroe acquisitions other contenders haven't yet gotten their chances to make.     Perry Minasian is hustling to keep Shohei engaged.

I believe from today's rosters getting BAL to 1400+ innings requires applying some below replacement fillers to the basket of stats.    Elias probably has more resources today to deploy than most of the other mid-80's wins forecast Clubs.

[Explosivo]

We’re they accurate for any other teams last year or was it just the O’s that surprised them?

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Explosivo said:

We’re they accurate for any other teams last year or was it just the O’s that surprised them?

Read the article and find out!   But I’d say not terribly accurate.  

 

[tabletop]

78 wins is pretty fair considering the current roster. I can see an argument for anywhere between 75 and 85. Hopefully they get serious after today and add some real talent to upgrade.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, tabletop said:

78 wins is pretty fair considering the current roster. I can see an argument for anywhere between 75 and 85. Hopefully they get serious after today and add some real talent to upgrade.

I agree.  The one caveat is that the methodology used excludes all the players on the FA market and compares how the teams as currently constituted would fare against each other.  So, if we added a below average amount of talent compared to other teams, our projected win total actually would go down, not stay flat.