Nobody Can Convince Me That the Orioles Infield is not Dramatically Better..

[bgfield]

I also love being told by someone else what I inferred in a post, when the absurdity of the inference is simply off the charts.

Okay I'm going to break this down for you because I have nothing else to do with my time right now. We were discussing the potential impact on Tejada's trade value by moving him to the outfield. You said:

Scouts aren't stupid. They already know the Tejada's defense is suspect as he had been replaced by three different guys who all look better out there. His value is already diminished. Moving him won't matter at all, other than help this team win more games.

If you grabbed some random person who had no prior knowledge of the situation, you would take this as meaning "Tejada has been replaced by three different players because his defense was suspect."

Saying "as he had been replaced" is like saying "due to the fact that he had been replaced". Do you get it? This is why I asked if you ever believe you are wrong. If you possess any intelligence whatsoever, you should be re-reading that post of yours and saying to yourself "Gee, I really did make it sound like I was suggesting Tejada was replaced due to his defensive value." But no, you continue to insult people, roll your eyes, and talk as though you're 100% right about everything when NOBODY here agrees with you.

Unbelievable.

[blueberryale77]

I agree with Eli Eon that the defense at SS has been better while Tejada has been out. However, that is not an indicitment or criticism of Tejada's defense. It so happens that his replacements have played spectacular defensive baseball.

At the time of his injury, Tejada ranked 2nd among AL shortstops in fielding percentage, at .979. However, his replacements have made only one error, fielding at a .993 clip.

Tejada ranked 3rd in zone rating, at .858. However, his replacements have done even better: Fahey .923 (8 starts), Gomez .833 (9 starts), Hernandez 1.000 (7 starts), Bynum .958 (6 starts). Collectively, that is a ZR of about .921.

So, the replacements' fielding percentage of .993 would easily be best among all AL shortstops (highest is Orlando Cabrera at .985), and their zone rating of .921 also would easily be best (highest is Bobby Crosby at .870).

The AL shortstop with the most DP's is Derek Jeter, with 74 in 99 games. Tejada's replacements have turned 26 double plays in 30 games, which is a much better rate than Jeter's.

Conclusion: this isn't about whether Tejada is a good fielder or not. It is about the fact that his replacements have played amazing defense over the last month.

I know I've beaten this horse to the point where it could star in a Luis Bunuel film, but I do think it's still worth pointing out that these stats don't tell the whole story for either Tejada or "the replacements." First of all, for Tejada, people keep bringing up his high fielding percentage, but aside from the obvious subjectivity of official scoring this doesn't reflect what is by far his biggest problem defensively, namely mental errors. It also doesn't reflect the times he mishandles a would-be double play ball and only gets one out, or the pop-ups over his head that he doesn't get to. For the replacements, the sample size is a little small to be worrying about what their fielding percentage is at the moment.

Zone rating as a measure is plagued by similar problems. First of all, if you look at any player's zone rating early in the season or when they have limited chances, it varies a lot. A player with lousy range can keep a 1.000 zone rating two or three weeks into the season just because balls haven't been hit to the edges of his zone yet. With a season-long sample, it's one of the more useful defensive stats, but I don't know that ZR for this year tells us much about Hernandez, Fahey, Gomez or Bynum at SS yet. Then of course comes the fact that for infielders it only reflects performance on grounders, and like fielding % it doesn't reflect whether they start a double play or record a single out on a chance that could potentially result in a DP.

As for number of double plays, this is in many ways a reflection of pitching more than fielding. The most important reason for a lot of double plays is pitchers who allow runners on first and then get ground balls. I know there's a stat somewhere on percentage of potential double plays successfully turned, but since I should really be writing an affordable housing plan right now and have no idea where to find it I'm going to hope someone else can find it. What I'd really like to see would be that stat for double play combos. My impression from watching the majority of Orioles' games is that with Roberts as the constant in the equation, a significantly higher percentage of grounders hit within the shortstop's zone with a double play in order become double plays with Hernandez than with Tejada, whether the reason is Hernandez getting to a ball that Tejada doesn't, making a more accurate throw to second base, or just fielding the ball more smoothly and getting rid of it quickly. More often than not, the reason is one of the latter two so you have a play where Tejada would get one out and one assist to help his fielding %/ZR and Hernandez would get 2 outs for the team but only 1 assist for his stats.

Again, I'm not saying put Hernandez in the lineup. I am saying that to say Tejada's defense is not problematic for this team is to put more faith in the stats on paper than the actual plays on the field. There is not a better viable option to play SS every day right now, but it is not ludicrous for fans to be frustrated with his defense and interested in investigating other options.

[bgfield]

I am correct on both points, as I predict many doubters will witness first hand for themselves when Miggy and his less than stellar defense returns to the shortstop position. I do think he is a liability in the field in comparison to those who have been playing the position. When three guys on the roster clearly outplay him, I think it is time to move him to another position, either OF or DH permanently or trade him.

I will stick to this position no matter how much ridicule and scorn I may get hurled my way because it is clearly correct and time will prove it.

Do you understand WHY you're being ridiculed? It's because of stupid comments like that. You come in here, making a claim and pre-emptively stating "Nobody can convince me otherwise." Then you go and basically say "I'm right, everyone else is wrong, period."

But maybe you are. Maybe every single person in this thread (except you, of course) is wrong. Maybe the manager of our team who WILL put Tejada back at shortstop when he returns is wrong. Maybe all the people who record all the many defensive stats which conclude that Tejada is anywhere from an average to above average fielder - people whose job it is to make those conclusions with statistics - are all wrong, too. All because you said so.

[Mackus]

I am correct on both points, as I predict many doubters will witness first hand for themselves when Miggy and his less than stellar defense returns to the shortstop position. I do think he is a liability in the field in comparison to those who have been playing the position. When three guys on the roster clearly outplay him, I think it is time to move him to another position, either OF or DH permanently or trade him.

I will stick to this position no matter how much ridicule and scorn I may get hurled my way because it is clearly correct and time will prove it.

I'm done. You're a broken record and its just a waste of time because you are so completely close-minded.

[Frobby]

Exactly. What it all boils down to is that Tejada has pretty good range. Maybe not as good as the guys who have been replacing him, but he's still been far from a "defensive liability"

Correct. His replacements have played truly outstanding defensive baseball -- Gold Glove level -- over a relatively short period of time. In that sense, they have played much better defense than Tejada, but also every other shortstop in baseball.

[Frobby]

I know I've beaten this horse to the point where it could star in a Luis Bunuel film, but I do think it's still worth pointing out that these stats don't tell the whole story for either Tejada or "the replacements."

You make a lot of good points in your post. I would be the first to admit that Tejada made some mental mistakes and blew some DP's that don't show up in his fielding percentage. The real question is, were there more of these types of plays than the average SS makes? And that's very hard to judge unless you are watching every other SS play over a long time like we have done with Tejada. Personally, I feel that Tejada's detractors tend to exaggerate the numer of times these things have happened.

[The Wedge]

Okay, you convinced me otherwise. I see from your profile you are 29, and since I am 52, thanks for calling me a "big baby." I haven't been called that since I was about 8 years old! It makes me feel young and immature again.

I also love being told by someone else what I inferred in a post, when the absurdity of the inference is simply off the charts. Again, continue to twist what I posted into your own travesty of a view. If you think I didn't know Tejada was on the DL and that is why he was replaced, I got a bag of sand to sell you for $500 bucks!

Way to see you hold to your convictions and not actually ignore me.

Plus, the whole "I'm older than you are" is pretty weak sauce. Like your point.

[33rdst]

I know I've beaten this horse to the point where it could star in a Luis Bunuel film, but I do think it's still worth pointing out that these stats don't tell the whole story for either Tejada or "the replacements." First of all, for Tejada, people keep bringing up his high fielding percentage, but aside from the obvious subjectivity of official scoring this doesn't reflect what is by far his biggest problem defensively, namely mental errors. It also doesn't reflect the times he mishandles a would-be double play ball and only gets one out, or the pop-ups over his head that he doesn't get to. For the replacements, the sample size is a little small to be worrying about what their fielding percentage is at the moment.

Zone rating as a measure is plagued by similar problems. First of all, if you look at any player's zone rating early in the season or when they have limited chances, it varies a lot. A player with lousy range can keep a 1.000 zone rating two or three weeks into the season just because balls haven't been hit to the edges of his zone yet. With a season-long sample, it's one of the more useful defensive stats, but I don't know that ZR for this year tells us much about Hernandez, Fahey, Gomez or Bynum at SS yet. Then of course comes the fact that for infielders it only reflects performance on grounders, and like fielding % it doesn't reflect whether they start a double play or record a single out on a chance that could potentially result in a DP.

As for number of double plays, this is in many ways a reflection of pitching more than fielding. The most important reason for a lot of double plays is pitchers who allow runners on first and then get ground balls. I know there's a stat somewhere on percentage of potential double plays successfully turned, but since I should really be writing an affordable housing plan right now and have no idea where to find it I'm going to hope someone else can find it. What I'd really like to see would be that stat for double play combos. My impression from watching the majority of Orioles' games is that with Roberts as the constant in the equation, a significantly higher percentage of grounders hit within the shortstop's zone with a double play in order become double plays with Hernandez than with Tejada, whether the reason is Hernandez getting to a ball that Tejada doesn't, making a more accurate throw to second base, or just fielding the ball more smoothly and getting rid of it quickly. More often than not, the reason is one of the latter two so you have a play where Tejada would get one out and one assist to help his fielding %/ZR and Hernandez would get 2 outs for the team but only 1 assist for his stats.

Again, I'm not saying put Hernandez in the lineup. I am saying that to say Tejada's defense is not problematic for this team is to put more faith in the stats on paper than the actual plays on the field. There is not a better viable option to play SS every day right now, but it is not ludicrous for fans to be frustrated with his defense and interested in investigating other options.

Thank you. This is a great post. Contrary to public opinion, it is a truly "objective" analysis of Tejada and his defensive replacements. I appreciate that you have used metrics as well as obsevations, based on context, to make your point. Mega reps for you.

[Ruzious]

Excellent post by Blueberry - since I agree with it. If they do keep a stat of blown DP's, I'd like to see how Tejada ranks. I can't imagine anyone has blown more than he has.

[TGO]

I'm done. You're a broken record and its just a waste of time because you are so completely close-minded.

Did this surprise you? The guy said in the title of the thread that no one could convince him. I've argued with him a couple of times in the past week or two and it's just not worth trying. I can't believe this thread has gotten as long as it has.

I give up. LUIS HERNANDEZ IS MARK BELANGER REINCARNATED!!!1 WOE UNTO MIGUEL ODALIS MARTINEZ TEJADA!!!

[Hank Scorpio]

Viva Hernandez!!!!!!!!!!! VIVA!!!!!!!!!

[The Wedge]

Did this surprise you? The guy said in the title of the thread that no one could convince him. I've argued with him a couple of times in the past week or two and it's just not worth trying. I can't believe this thread has gotten as long as it has.

I give up. LUIS HERNANDEZ IS MARK BELANGER REINCARNATED!!!1 WOE UNTO MIGUEL ODALIS MARTINEZ TEJADA!!!

What's more surprising for me is that a staff member, who should probably never do this for logistical reasons, put him on ignore. I mean, I know that most of the staff are only de-facto moderators, but how can you do moderate if you are willingly not going to read someone's posts? Heh.

[Sports Guy]

I think the problem is EE isn't watching the current games...I think he just keeps replaying the games from the first half of last year, when Miggy's range wa atrocious do to the bad knee.

[Cokeman]

Huh? Just because I post that I know what every Oriole fan on the planet knows unless they have been in a coma the past month or so that Tejada went on the DL for a broken hand, you infer that I think I am never wrong? Some of you have some rather unusual reading comprehension issues or so it seems. It is like you take something so far out of context you are off to another universe!

I am an Orioles fan...I live on this planet...I haven't been in a coma the past month or so.

With all that said, I honestly didn't know that Tejada went on the DL with a broken hand...I thought it was his wrist.

[Frobby]

I think the problem is EE isn't watching the current games...I think he just keeps replaying the games from the first half of last year, when Miggy's range was atrocious do to the bad knee.

Tejada's defense also was poor in April of this year, and that left a strong impression on some people. Here were my comments from my April defense project:

Miguel Tejada: 2 O, 7 PGP, 6 M, 8 P. Conventional stats: 8th (of 13) in fielding %, 11th in RF, 6th in ZR. BP Rates of 87/86. I think this really goes to show (1) how bad a month Tejada had, and (2) just how often notable plays occur at SS. My observations on Tejada are that he clearly has more range this year, but he has made several errors that evidence a lack of concentration. He always has had a tendency to let an occasional grounder get under his glove, bu this year he has whiffed on a line drive that went right past his glove (on opening day) and a belt-high hopper pretty much right at him (last night). He has made several mental errors too. And finally, he seems to be rushing his throws sometimes instead of “locking and loading” as he used to do. His days as a starting SS are numbered if this continues.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46253&highlight=defense

However, Tejada really picked things up after that. Here's my post analyzing fielding stats from May:

Miguel Tejada made no errors in the month of May. His fielding percentage at ss in now 3rd in the league. His zone rating went from .841 in April (6th in the AL) to .868 by the end of May (2nd in the AL). That means his zone rating for May alone was about .895, which is spectacular for a SS. BP gave him a Rate/Rate2 of 87/86 in April, which is awful, but by the end of May he was up to 96/98, which is just slightly under average. From this you can derive a May Rate/Rate2 of about 105/110, which is very good. I should mention that Miggy did botch one or two double plays and had maybe another mental error or two in May, but he cut way down on the mistakes he was making in April no matter how you slice it.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=47813&highlight=defense

And, finally, June:

Tejada -- Rate/Rate2 of 97/97, ZR slipped from .868 to .858, made 1 error

http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=49672&highlight=defense

My feeling is that Tejada played very poor defense in the first month, both statistically and in ways that don't show up in statistics. He played far better in May and June, again both statistically and otherwise. But people are still fixated on his poor play in April.