Colton Cowser 2022

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m getting on you because you have now mentioned Lawlar 30 times in various threads - yes, I counted.   I’ve got nothing against your opinion that we should have chosen Lawlar.  I just don’t need to hear about it all the time.   Simple as that.  

Leave it to Frobby to do the research!!!   LOL

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m getting on you because you have now mentioned Lawlar 30 times in various threads - yes, I counted.   I’ve got nothing against your opinion that we should have chosen Lawlar.  I just don’t need to hear about it all the time.   Simple as that.  

I will try to tone it down for you:) Agree to disagree. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

26 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Harassment?  (good thing you knew how to spell it!  I was going with 2 r's).    I would say the voices of Corn, you, and all of the posters questioning Elias is the loud majority around here compared to those who are giving him some slack.    I reply to Tony plenty lately.  He's definitely getting more in line with the Elias dissenters.    

If you are going to post around here, you need to put your big boy pants on.   It's not personal.   It's just a message board!

Ha, that is funny. My perception is most on here make excuses to no end for the franchise. All relative. Regardless I love your posts and analysis, keep up the great posts.

[glenn__davis]

1 minute ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I will try to tone it down for you:) Agree to disagree. 

But that's the thing Nelson - no one is really disagreeing with you. 

RIGHT NOW, Lawler looks like he would have been the better pick.  The issue is when you say things like "Hope he doesn't make another mistake like he did with Cowser."  As if it is already finalized that Lawler was a better pick.  Maybe in 4-5 years Lawler will be an everyday SS and Cowser will flame out.  Or maybe Cowser will adjust back and become the player we hoped he would be and Lawler will struggle at the higher levels.  It's just way too early to tell.  And that's not reluctance to criticize Elias - I've been very critical of him and his (IMO) slow-playing of prospects - that's just the reality of baseball.

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Ha, that is funny. My perception is most on here make excuses to no end for the franchise. All relative. Regardless I love your posts and analysis, keep up the great posts.

Thanks for all of the nice comments.   I guess perception is a funny thing.    My perception is that I read thread after thread with people who are out of patience and taking shots at Elias and his methods (slow promotions, going underslot, etc.).    Your perception is that the board is filled with Kool-aid drinkers.    I disagree.

[LookinUp]

The reasons I don't typically criticize draft picks are twofold:

1. I don't assume the worst about the people making the picks. In this case, that means I assume Elias wants to do what's best he can for this organization.

2. I know I don't have nearly the information they have to go off of. For all we know Lawler said he didn't want to be in Baltimore. Maybe he had a deal in place with the Sox? Maybe he has a knee issue, or there were reports that he was immature, or there was just too much unknown on him because he was a HS guy and Cowser was a college guy with more data.

All of that is reason to take Cowser. Doesn't make it right, and I personally don't like the HS issue because that would be a systemic blind spot and that's not acceptable, but beyond that Elias ran his model and took who he thought was best. After that we have to wait and see if he was right.

[Jammer7]

6 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Thank you. I have noticed this argument on here a lot recently. If I am wrong, I say I am wrong (trust me that I am wrong a lot, ask my wife:) but the main point is exactly that: take the bpa (Lawlar in this discussion) and if that doesn’t work, take responsibility. 
 

I liked the Garcia & Martin (and Santander) rule 5 picks A LOT. 2/3 seem to not have worked but not going to be dishonest about my opinion.

Regardless, take bpa. Stop being cute.

Nelson, this isn’t all directed at you. You are a passionate fan, like most here. I just wish you’d state your case, once. And then let it go. But that is not your style. You feel the need to enlighten us all every day about the same thing. It just gets tiring. I know…carry on. 

What if they are taking BPA? They may rate Cowser over Lawler, and saved money. Or they may have viewed them the same value. No GM asks Jim Callis who they should take. Or any other reporter. They have their own data, algorithms and scouts. They figure how much value each player will bring to their organization and make the pick. Many here talk as tough Elias is a fool. I have to laugh.

No one is making excuses that I have seen. As I said, I wanted Brady House or Lawler. But no one other than Elias and his staff are qualified to make that call for the Orioles. If this was the wrong pick, so be it. We don’t have their data. Lots of hyped up HS guys fail every year. Two months of low A ball do not make a meaningful evaluation. 

Being called a “Kool Aid sipper” or “excuse maker” doesn’t bother me. It’s ridiculous, since I didn’t agree with the last two picks. I just don’t think we can judge these drafts yet. Way too soon.

I do defend Elias on many things because I am all about developing kids into players. I spend a big part of my time doing that. I believe in what they are doing, even though every decision may not be the best one, in hindsight. Which organization makes the right choice every time? Who decides?

With that, this is the same rehashed crap in every thread. This board has become a cesspool of negative snarky crap. This used to be a place for intelligent discussion. It has become as polarized as the politics of today. We’re all Orioles fans here. But some folks here feel the need to talk down to people as if they know their own butt from a hole in the ground when it comes to player evaluation and development. Different opinions, does not mean they are wrong.

The game has changed a lot the past decade. Development strategies and technology has too. They are cutting edge of theory and process. Yet, fans, who know nothing about any of it, mock and ridicule this. I just don’t get it. I’m out for a while. You guys win. Cheers…

[RZNJ]

Jammer, I hope out for a while means a few hours or a day.    You hit a lot of nails on the head.   

[Frobby]

I agree with RZNJ and others that it takes a long time to judge most draft picks.   In a case like Kjerstad or Cowser, moreover, we’re not only judging the guy we picked, but a couple of other guys we signed with the underslot savings.  So that makes it extra uncertain.   That doesn’t mean we can’t have opinions on draft day, or a year after the draft.  But it’s simply going to be a while before we know how it all turns out.  

Back to Cowser, I’m both disappointed in his performance to date and concerned that he may not turn out that well in the longer run.   But that opinion could change.  I’m still hopeful (not necessarily expectant) that a light bulb will go on as the season progresses.  Not going to get overwrought over 50 games in his first full MiL season, though I’m certainly not thrilled.   

[hazard51]

Maybe worth remembering that last year Henderson, after the same amount of ABs at Aberdeen was hitting just .211

[RZNJ]

15 hours ago, hazard51 said:

Maybe worth remembering that last year Henderson, after the same amount of ABs at Aberdeen was hitting just .211

Apples and Oranges but still a very good point.   Things can change quickly on the prospect scene.   Look at Stowers last year and then looking so-so this year and then boom!     I do believe Cowser is going to get hot and raise the average to .300 if he's at Aberdeen long enough but I suspect if he gets into a groove for 2 weeks, he'll get promoted quickly.    I believe he's getting back to the hitter he was at Delmarva and it's just a matter of time.  We'll see.

[byrdz]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m getting on you because you have now mentioned Lawlar 30 times in various threads - yes, I counted.   I’ve got nothing against your opinion that we should have chosen Lawlar.  I just don’t need to hear about it all the time.   Simple as that.  

It's almost like Orioleshangout needs another sub-forum where we could discuss O's Amateur Draft and International Signings. Oh wait...

[interloper]

On 6/7/2022 at 4:43 PM, Jammer7 said:

With that, this is the same rehashed crap in every thread. This board has become a cesspool of negative snarky crap. This used to be a place for intelligent discussion. It has become as polarized as the politics of today. We’re all Orioles fans here. But some folks here feel the need to talk down to people as if they know their own butt from a hole in the ground when it comes to player evaluation and development. Different opinions, does not mean they are wrong.

Spot on, my friend. 

[RZNJ]

Definitely cutting down on his strikeouts lately.   Two hits last night in the 2nd game.    Even with everything, his OPS is about .760 right now.   If he gets the average up to about .280 that should easily put him over .800 even if he isn't walking as much.   At that point, I think they push him up to Bowie.   It might be my imagination but he seems to be playing more LF lately too with Donta' Willams getting more CF time.   

[btdart20]

Meoli's newsletter where Cowser talked about changing his approach hitting was published on 6/1.  No clue when Cowser made that change, but I think 6/1 is a line of demarcation.  Yes, we'll have to judge him on his body of work, but I think it'll be helpful to look at what happens from 6/1 onward as well.  

Since then, the only good news is the 4/3 K/BB ratio and even that is SSS.  A paltry .200 babip in that time (for a lefty with good speed) seems to indicate more upside just on "luck."  Not enough data at this point though...