Creed Willems 2022

[seak05]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, you are the one who said the top of the draft looks meh.  I’m saying that’s not accurate and Meyer and Veen are 2 examples of that being wrong.

As for whether or not they would be bpa over Kjerstad, I agree that’s a question. It was close.  I think Meyer would have been rated higher and Veen would have been neck and neck and the Os took the college guy.

I have been of the opinion that Elias never considered a pitcher with that pick. 

The top rated prospects from that draft look meh. Veen and Meyer weren't rated among by the top 5 by most outlets. They were with Heston in the next tier down. 

My argument is that going underslot, rather then taking the consensus "bpa" at the time, was clearly a better strategy for the 2020 draft. You can very fairly debate which underslot guy they should have chosen, but that's no longer a discussion of the strategy itself. 

Some drafts, you clearly have a guy (or two) who you should take as bpa ie in 2019 the pick was clearly Adley or Witt Jr, in other years the difference between your options is much smaller, and saving money in order to get other players later might be the better strategy. 

[Sports Guy]

44 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A week ago Mayo was over .900 OPS. Don't go there.  TODAY their stats are comparable and Veen plays in extreme hitters park and Mayo plays in an extreme pitchers park.  Can you refute any of those FACTS?

Well a week ago was May 8. On May 7, they got rained out.  The previous game to that was May 5, his OpS was 866.  On May 8(a week ago from today as you stated), after the DH, it was 843. April 29th was the last time I see his OpS over 900.

So yea, I dispute that FACT!

https://www.milb.com/player/coby-mayo-691723?stats=gamelogs-r-hitting-mlb&year=2022

 

However, the OBP was still 60ish points lower than where it has been for Veen even when that OPS was high.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, seak05 said:

The top rated prospects from that draft look meh. Veen and Meyer weren't rated among by the top 5 by most outlets. They were with Heston in the next tier down. 

My argument is that going underslot, rather then taking the consensus "bpa" at the time, was clearly a better strategy for the 2020 draft. You can very fairly debate which underslot guy they should have chosen, but that's no longer a discussion of the strategy itself. 

Some drafts, you clearly have a guy (or two) who you should take as bpa ie in 2019 the pick was clearly Adley or Witt Jr, in other years the difference between your options is much smaller, and saving money in order to get other players later might be the better strategy. 

Some are doing well, some aren’t.  Pretty typical of a draft.  The Orioles picked a guy who’s not doing well.  Not their fault but that doesn’t change the bottom line.  
 

I disagree with your second statement about it being clearly the best strategy. 

[Tony-OH]

20 hours ago, RZNJ said:

You added in the laugh but it really is the same.  Elias picked Mayo in the 4th and gave him 2nd round money.  He picked Willems in the 8th and gave him, 3rd round money?

Any other team could have drafted Mayo in the 2nd and paid him that bonus but no one felt he was a 2nd round talent.  Perhaps Elias didn't think he was worth a 2nd round pick either. He had the pool savings to overpay in the 4th.

Just because he paid Willems 1M doesn't mean he valued him at whatever slot in the draft where 1M puts you.  He may have viewed  Willems as a 5th round talent and over paid because he could.  

Covid or not, other teams could have drafted Mayo earlier but didn't.  Same thing with Willems.  The difference is that Mayo got more money and has performed while Willems has gotten off to a horrible start and looked out of shape from day one.  Willems could be a complete bust but he still hasn't turned 19, and I'm sure we're all curious to see if he can keep his head above water at Delmarva. 

You don't understand the slotting system. 

Most teams did not have the money left in their bonus pool to get Mayo or Baumler during that COVID draft. It had nothing to do that othe teams didn't value Mayo. 

I never heard any buzz on Willems at all and considering he's an overweight short catcher who has two tools, raw power and a plus arm, I don't think he's anywhere near the same as Mayo besides both being overslots.

I doubt very much Elias just gave Willems extra money because he had it after underspending on previous slots. At the end of the day, Elias and his scouts felt Willems was worth $1 million. We're a long way from knowing whether that will end up a good investment, but clearly the early returns have not looked good.

From all reports Willems is good young man, but it's pretty disappointing to see him come into camp in such bad shape after getting that big bonus. You would have thought that his entire offseason would have been built around him getting in better shape.

I know he was a bad body kid when they drafted him, but it really looks bad when you totally fail against competition you should be able to compete against when you have that body. It just gets highlighting more.

Hopefully he'll rededicate himself after this tough start and we'll see a different player next spring. But either way, personally, I would have liked to have seen a few more tools from a $1 million overslot high school kid. More of a lottery ticket per se.

[seak05]

I will say that at least he’s at a full season club. Many other players from that draft, including big bonus money guys like bubba starling, are still in extended spring. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, seak05 said:

I will say that at least he’s at a full season club. Many other players from that draft, including big bonus money guys like bubba starling, are still in extended spring. 

Bubba Starling was drafted in 2011.

[seak05]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Bubba Starling was drafted in 2011.

Chandler , can’t keep my bubba’s straight

[seak05]

Out of curiosity I went and looked at a few HS position players from the first few rounds of the 2020 draft. It's a little bit of a hard comparison because the season didn't start until May 4 of last year. That said a number of players didn't debut until later in the summer. I wonder if we're seeing the impact of the loss of short season A baseball. Making for a much larger leap, especially for players coming out of high school. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Just dropping by to say that OBP is more valuable than Slugging. 

Veen has a .364 wOBA, Mayo .334.   Pretty clear advantage to Veen.   Mayo’s numbers are still quite good in light of his age.  

[maybenxtyr]

Just hit an opposite field HR with a nice sound off of the bat. Rooting for the young man.

[maybenxtyr]

HR and a triple with 3 rbi... showing some signs of life!

[interloper]

I very much would like to see this triple.

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

HR and a triple with 3 rbi... showing some signs of life!

And a double on Saturday night.  His first extra base hits with Delmarva.   Average over the .100 mark.   haha

18 years old!    I root for all of the O's minor leaguers but gotta root for this kid a little extra now.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

I very much would like to see this triple.

Good one.  His draft writeup in BA said he moved faster than you'd expect.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Good one.  His draft writeup in BA said he moved faster than you'd expect.

I don't doubt it. At 18 I'm sure his legs motor pretty good. Hope you didn't take this as a dig on him! Catchers hitting triples is always a good time. Wieters' first hit in the bigs if I recall.