We are up. Who do you want for pick 81, and who do you think they will take?

[forphase1]

We have the first pick on day 2, 81st over all.  According to MLB the 11th, Brock Porter, 46th, Tristan Smith, 57th, Malcom Moore and #60, Jonathan Cannon, are still available from the pool of players ranked in the top 60.  Like most, I think I'd love to see us take Porter, use whatever it takes to sign him, and add a top 10-15 talent at this spot at a position of need.  Realistically speaking though, looking at the Elias track record, I expect we will take a college position player, someone like #115, Nolan McLean, a 4 year sophomore 3B from Oklahoma State.  Here is a write up on him and some stats:

2021: Started 39 games – 17 at DH, 12 at second base, eight at first base and two in right field … also pitched in two games, both times in relief … had an RBI walk in collegiate debut vs. Wichita State (2/22) … smashed first-career home run vs. Illinois State (2/28) … was 3-for-4 with a homer and three RBIs vs. Missouri State (3/2) … had career-high three hits and four RBIs vs. Vanderbilt (3/14) … went 3-for-4 in that game with two homers and a double and also scored three runs … struck out two in an inning of work in debut on mound vs. TCU (4/18) … homered in NCAA Regional win over Grand Canyon (6/5).

 

Edited July 18, 2022 by forphase1
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[Just Regular]

1 minute ago, forphase1 said:

According to MLB the 11th, Brock Porter,

MLB seems to be most bullish.    Fangraphs Longenhagen in the mid-teens, and ESPN McDaniel in the mid-20's.

I think entering tomorrow Brock Porter may be in about the same Stars and Scrubs from here on in position Gunnar Henderson was after Adley in 2019.     If Elias can gain 10% cuts on tonight's four picks and hollow out rounds 4-10, I believe BAL could scrape a few million out of its pool for one big bet.

[OriolesMagic83]

If I had to guess, it will be an OF and definitely not a pitcher.

[cnmilton]

It doesn't matter. it will be the highest rated position player rated by Sig's analytics. The Os will have no pitching other than the pitchers chosen by Gary Rajsich. Wish he was still running the Os drafts.

[Sydnor]

Literally any pitcher. I suspect they’ll draft a college bat (probably an outfielder) with good exit velocities, but questions about the hit tool. It seems like this has been going on for 2 years. In his MASN interview, Ciolek basically said they think they have the secret sauce to take guys late and turn them into pitchers that outperform their draft slots. Those pitchers generally end up looking like Dylan Heid. Some analysts, including Tony, think Baumler is one of the O’s three-five best pitching prospects. He’s thrown 11.2 innings since he was drafted.

[baltfan]

32 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

Literally any pitcher. I suspect they’ll draft a college bat (probably an outfielder) with good exit velocities, but questions about the hit tool. It seems like this has been going on for 2 years. In his MASN interview, Ciolek basically said they think they have the secret sauce to take guys late and turn them into pitchers that outperform their draft slots. Those pitchers generally end up looking like Dylan Heid. Some analysts, including Tony, think Baumler is one of the O’s three-five best pitching prospects. He’s thrown 11.2 innings since he was drafted.

I agree I would have more confidence if the Orioles had proven this in the minors the last few years.  

[Moose Milligan]

Porter would be good. If you think he’s gone under slot with the picks so far, this might be where he steps up and takes a prep pitcher who’s fallen a bit. 
 

Ah who am I kidding? He will take a college bat. 

[baltfan]

Hopefully Roch  knows something. 

Porter, the 2022 Gatorade National Baseball Player of the Year, was still available as the Orioles were on the clock in Competitive Balance Round B. They selected University of Florida outfielder Jud Fabian, thrilled to get him after the Red Sox beat them to the pick last year.

Fabian didn’t sign and returned to the Gators. He went from 40^th overall to 67^th.

Porter remains undrafted. Quite a drop.

Seems like the perfect overslot signing for a team that needs more pitching.
 

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/doubling-back-to-the-mlb-draft
 

 

[waroriole]

I don’t see us having saved enough from slot to be able to sign Porter. I assume the next couple of picks are either college OF or senior pitchers who have high spin rates. 

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, forphase1 said:

We have the first pick on day 2, 81st over all.  According to MLB the 11th, Brock Porter, 46th, Tristan Smith, 57th, Malcom Moore and #60, Jonathan Cannon, are still available from the pool of players ranked in the top 60.  Like most, I think I'd love to see us take Porter, use whatever it takes to sign him, and add a top 10-15 talent at this spot at a position of need.  Realistically speaking though, looking at the Elias track record, I expect we will take a college position player, someone like #115, Nolan McLean, a 4 year sophomore 3B from Oklahoma State.  Here is a write up on him and some stats:

2021: Started 39 games – 17 at DH, 12 at second base, eight at first base and two in right field … also pitched in two games, both times in relief … had an RBI walk in collegiate debut vs. Wichita State (2/22) … smashed first-career home run vs. Illinois State (2/28) … was 3-for-4 with a homer and three RBIs vs. Missouri State (3/2) … had career-high three hits and four RBIs vs. Vanderbilt (3/14) … went 3-for-4 in that game with two homers and a double and also scored three runs … struck out two in an inning of work in debut on mound vs. TCU (4/18) … homered in NCAA Regional win over Grand Canyon (6/5).

 

Hopefully they take Porter….he looks like value here

[seak05]

They’ll probably abou take an up the middle college hitter. I’d love for them to take a pitcher.

Zero idea why people think the last few picks are underslot. It’s a guy who was thought to be a potential first rounder, and a draft eligible sophomore coming off a great year

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, seak05 said:

They’ll probably abou take an up the middle college hitter. I’d love for them to take a pitcher.

Zero idea why people think the last few picks are underslot. It’s a guy who was thought to be a potential first rounder, and a draft eligible sophomore coming off a great year

I do think they will be underslot (or if they are, its not by much) but I also don’t think they go overslot either (or if they do, it won’t be by much)

Fabian has no leverage anymore.  He went back to school and dropped in the draft.  He could choose to go again but what is he going to gain?  He gambled once and lost.  Is he going to keep gambling?  Last year, the knock on him is hit hit tool.  He went back to college, gained more experience, seemingly worked on his hit tool and still has a giant question mark about it.  

The leverage is gone.

Beavers has a questionable swing.  He isn’t going back either.  A clear slot or slightly under slot guy.

Wagner, who didn’t even start the year as a starter, could in theory go back to school.  He is the only guy out of the 3 who really has some amount of leverage but with a slot of 1.8M, I’m doubting it takes more than 2.3 to sign him and considering he wasn’t even a starter to begin the year, I’m guessing he will be happy to take the 1.8M And get his pro career started.

 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

46 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I don’t see us having saved enough from slot to be able to sign Porter. 

Agreed on Porter, obviously would love to have him however.

After robo umps are implemented, Robo pitchers will make drafting pitching a thing of the past. OFers will be made into pitching cyborgs. The lower the batting average in college, the higher the spin rate. Pure genius!

 

[Sports Guy]

If they don’t take Porter, I don’t really get what they are doing overall.  

I like the potential upside of these guys.  They have some tools that really could be valuable and as questionable as the Fabian pick is, in todays game, maybe he works.  I don’t like the profile of not being a good hitter but there is upside.

My problem is, after saving money with the first pick (Holliday is going to sign for under slot), why aren’t you going bigger overslot??

Why do they continue to do this?  They save money and then take a bunch of toolsy college guys that aren’t big overslot guys.  Is it more of a spread it out strategy?  
 

The slot bonuses for yesterday were approximately 14.1M. 

Rounds 3-10 are about 2.8M.  They have an additional 825k they could spend.  
 

Last year, Bubba Chandler, a presumed first rounder with a first round grade and who also had a football scholarship, slid to pick 72 and the Pirates signed him for 3M. The slot for that pick was 800k.

Pick 81 has a slot of almost 800K. Porter is sitting there.  The bonus pool money available, if they use the additional 825k, should be somewhere in the 4-4.5M range.  Giving Porter 3M (probably 3.1 to beat the Chandler deal) is doable.  If you did that, you have 1-1.5M left over for 7 picks.  
 

Maybe there are more Baumler and Mayo guys out there and they want 2 of them instead of 1.  We’ll see but the lack of overslots doesn’t make much sense to me.   
 

Maybe Elias isn’t allowed to go over the budget.  Maybe that’s where the cheapness comes out.  That’s the only thing I can think of.  If that money isn’t there, it makes it harder to get Porter.

[csgordos]

Good morning. Been some time since posting. 
 

have to wonder if the “success” with pitchers like Watkins, Voth, Perez, etc has the analytics department think they can continue to take waiver players and max their value?   Take other teams higher round picks who are older, tweak them a little, trade them for competitive picks and then draft best player available.