Rutschman vs Witt

[Filmstudy]

As it stands right now:

Rutschman: .302/.420/.722 for 104 OPS+ and 

Witt: .299/.450/.749 for 109 OPS+

Despite fairly close hitting statistics, including positional relativity and defense:

Rutschman turns your otherwise .500 team into a .515 team

Witt turns your otherwise .500 team into a .497 team

Projected to 162 games played for each, having Rutschman at his (under)performance to date is worth 3 more wins.

It sure looks like the Orioles drafted the right guy.

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

One thing, I would note that Bobby Witt Jr. is two years younger than Adley. And it's possible being younger that Witt will have ultimately have a higher ceiling than Adley as a player. 

I'm happy with Adley too because the importance of  having a great defensive catcher who can also hit is substantial. 

[Filmstudy]

8 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

One thing, I would note that Bobby Witt Jr. is two years younger than Adley. And it's possible being younger that Witt will have ultimately have a higher ceiling than Adley as a player. 

I'm happy with Adley too because the importance of  having a great defensive catcher who can also hit is substantial. 

Very fair point.

I think it may also be possible Witt has to move towards the DH end (do not read as all the way) of the defensive spectrum.  Adley is staying at catcher for a long time.

[now]

Creative analysis, thanks. BTW the comparison may be moot now that we have Holliday in Witt's spot!

[PHRESH]

If Gunnar sticks at SS, Adley was far and away the best choice. If he has to move to 3B, then I'm really happy we took Holliday over Jones. And until he's ready, I'm happy with Mateo's defense at the 6. 

[Jagwar]

Seems strange to me to be analyzing which .200ish hitter the O's should have chosen. 

Using this SSS maybe the O's should have selected Andrew Vaughn. 

[Sports Guy]

Love Adley…but I take Witt over him because of age and position. 
 

Happy to have Adley though.  I expect some MVP level seasons from him.  I also would bet on an OPS north of 750 by the end of the year.

[Aristotelian]

8 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

 

It sure looks like the Orioles drafted the right guy.

 

I'd say it looks pretty close and it is way too early to tell which has the better career. I am certainly happy with Adley's production and everything he has brought to our team.

How are you calculating .515 vs .497? Does it factor in that Adley has accumulated his WAR in approximately half the AB's as Witt? Adjusting for AB's, bbref has Adley significantly better than Witt, Fangraphs less so. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I'd say it looks pretty close and it is way too early to tell which has the better career. I am certainly happy with Adley's production and everything he has brought to our team.

How are you calculating .515 vs .497? Does it factor in that Adley has accumulated his WAR in approximately half the AB's as Witt? Adjusting for AB's, bbref has Adley significantly better than Witt, Fangraphs less so. 

Witt should be the strong favorite to have the better  career.  He's younger and catchers decline faster.

Initial team control is the real issue and I think Adley has the edge there.

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Witt should be the strong favorite to have the better  career.  He's younger and catchers decline faster.

Initial team control is the real issue and I think Adley has the edge there.

That was really dumb of them to call up Witt on opening day. However if the question is which one we should have drafted, team control shouldn't be a factor. If the question is which one would I rather have right now, you are right, big advantage to Rutschman. 

[MarCakes21]

Speaking of these, any way to calculate accumulated WAR for rookies?  Any chance Adley ends up in top 2 of ROY assuming maintained production?  Or are we looking at the Joe Ryan's/Julio Rodriguez only.

[geschinger]

Adley was the right pick IMO because of the scarcity of catchers that have his combination of offensive and defensive abilities.

The Orioles may have gotten someone close to as good (if not better) as Witt in Henderson and then again with Holliday.  A catcher with Adley's skillset is so much harder to find.   

[MurphDogg]

I'm not worried about the age difference, by the time it really matters, both will be in their free agent years. Plus the Orioles control Adley for an additional year.

I fully expect Adley to have more value over the next 6 seasons and a half seasons than Witt will over the next 5 and a half seasons

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

I'm not worried about the age difference, by the time it really matters, both will be in their free agent years. Plus the Orioles control Adley for an additional year.

I fully expect Adley to have more value over the next 6 seasons and a half seasons than Witt will over the next 5 and a half seasons

Sure, the age difference shouldn't be a factor in the years under initial team control.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

That was really dumb of them to call up Witt on opening day. However if the question is which one we should have drafted, team control shouldn't be a factor. If the question is which one would I rather have right now, you are right, big advantage to Rutschman. 

Seems as if most teams valued the chance at an additional draft pick more than they did the additional service time.