I think Mateo has superstar potential

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’ll talk about what I choose.  
 

He had a sub 600 OPS a few weeks ago.  While the defense has been there all year and he has speed, he has no bat and no history of one.

Until he shows the ability to hit for a long period of time, he has no value outside of a second or third piece in  a deal.  He won’t fetch you much of anything on his own.

Don’t 2-3 WAR shortstops have trade value, regardless of how much of their WAR comes from offense vs. defense?  I think they do.  

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Don’t 2-3 WAR shortstops have trade value, regardless of how much of their WAR comes from offense vs. defense?  I think they do.  

I don’t think he does today.  Doesn’t mean it won’t exist in the offseason or a year from now but no one is giving up much for him right now.

Again, as a secondary piece for a more established player, I could see him being a sweetener type guy.  But I don’t think anyone would have been clamoring for a sub 600 OPS guy a month ago and I don’t think a few hot weeks, after a pro career of mediocre at best results, is going to fool a lot of teams.

I don’t even understand the talk of trading him right now.  

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think he does today.  Doesn’t mean it won’t exist in the offseason or a year from now but no one is giving up much for him right now.

Again, as a secondary piece for a more established player, I could see him being a sweetener type guy.  But I don’t think anyone would have been clamoring for a sub 600 OPS guy a month ago and I don’t think a few hot weeks, after a pro career of mediocre at best results, is going to fool a lot of teams.

I don’t even understand the talk of trading him right now.  

I don’t think he’ll be traded now, either.   

[Three Run Homer]

You can't judge Mateo's potential just by looking at his current or career OPS.  It's clear from the numbers and the eye test that he has good power and outstanding speed and defense, and that he has a big problem chasing pitches out of the strike zone.  You can't teach power and you can't teach speed, but if the O's can improve Mateo's plate discipline, he could indeed become a star.    

If pitchers can go to Driveline in the offseason to pimp up their stuff, why can't hitters go to a  recognition/plate discipline bootcamp?  Mountcastle and Mateo would both benefit from a trip to Camp Rutschman.    

[OriolesMagic83]

6 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

You can't judge Mateo's potential just by looking at his current or career OPS.  It's clear from the numbers and the eye test that he has good power and outstanding speed and defense, and that he has a big problem chasing pitches out of the strike zone.  You can't teach power and you can't teach speed, but if the O's can improve Mateo's plate discipline, he could indeed become a star.    

If pitchers can go to Driveline in the offseason to pimp up their stuff, why can't hitters go to a  recognition/plate discipline bootcamp?  Mountcastle and Mateo would both benefit from a trip to Camp Rutschman.    

Hook up Mountcastle to electrodes where he gets electro shock therapy when he swings at the low and away slider (joking).

[waroriole]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think he does today.  Doesn’t mean it won’t exist in the offseason or a year from now but no one is giving up much for him right now.

Again, as a secondary piece for a more established player, I could see him being a sweetener type guy.  But I don’t think anyone would have been clamoring for a sub 600 OPS guy a month ago and I don’t think a few hot weeks, after a pro career of mediocre at best results, is going to fool a lot of teams.

I don’t even understand the talk of trading him right now.  

I wouldn’t trade him now, but we’re about to have a lot of ML quality players in the IF. If we can move him, or another player, in the offseason for a decent SP we should do it. Even if he’s not a headliner, he’s a compelling second piece. 

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

You can't judge Mateo's potential just by looking at his current or career OPS.  It's clear from the numbers and the eye test that he has good power and outstanding speed and defense, and that he has a big problem chasing pitches out of the strike zone.  You can't teach power and you can't teach speed, but if the O's can improve Mateo's plate discipline, he could indeed become a star.    

If pitchers can go to Driveline in the offseason to pimp up their stuff, why can't hitters go to a  recognition/plate discipline bootcamp?  Mountcastle and Mateo would both benefit from a trip to Camp Rutschman.    

The thing is, he has had all of those qualities for his whole career and he has been a below average player.

Having tools doesn’t mean you will make it.  Far more players have failed with tools than those who have succeeded. 
 

Mateo is playing well right now and he has value.  Whether it’s as a super UTI guy getting 300-400 at bats or an everyday SS, who knows.  

[Jammer7]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The thing is, he has had all of those qualities for his whole career and he has been a below average player.

Having tools doesn’t mean you will make it.  Far more players have failed with tools than those who have succeeded. 
 

Mateo is playing well right now and he has value.  Whether it’s as a super UTI guy getting 300-400 at bats or an everyday SS, who knows.  

Well, this is the first time he has actually played everyday in MLB. The stats are what they are, it I think it is reasonable to expect some improvement/growth. I am not sure what he looks like by this time next year.

I think he is in the optimal situation for his development right now in Baltimore. I seriously doubt he becomes a super UT player anytime soon, unless he suddenly becomes uncoachable. I think it makes a difference for him when he plays SS. He sees himself as a SS. It’s a pride or ego thing, whatever. I’m not sure he can be as engaged elsewhere on the field.

He needs continued leadership around him, and I think his stock is volatile until he matures more. He was maligned a bit for a “lack of focus” in previous scouting reports as a prospect on BA when with the Yanks. If all goes right, he could be Tim Anderson with more speed. If it goes wrong, he could be Tim Beckham. I don’t think he’s an attractive trade target for a contender. I also don’t think we have a better (or anyone close) defensive SS next season, unless you think Joey Ortiz is coming quickly. 

[Baltimorecuse]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, sure, if he keeps hitting like the last three weeks.   But you could say that about most players If you picked out their hottest three weeks of the season and imagined what they’d be like if they always hit like that.   You could also say that if they kept hitting like they did for their coldest three weeks, they’d be out of baseball.  That’s certainly true for Mateo, who had a .503 OPS for the entire month of June.

Bottom line, Mateo is hot right now and we’ll see how long he can sustain it and whether he can avoid going ice cold again.  Baseball is a game of hot streaks, and I’d say what distinguishes the better players is not how they do when they’re hot, but how often they’re hot vs. being cold.  

And I don’t mean to pour cold water on what Mateo is doing.  He’s playing great right now and I hope it continues.  His defense has been very good all year and if his offense continues to improve, he can be very valuable indeed.  
 

But his speed and ++ defense won't go away.  So all that holds him back is his hitting.

[now]

1 hour ago, Three Run Homer said:

You can't judge Mateo's potential just by looking at his current or career OPS.  It's clear from the numbers and the eye test that he has good power and outstanding speed and defense, and that he has a big problem chasing pitches out of the strike zone.  You can't teach power and you can't teach speed, but if the O's can improve Mateo's plate discipline, he could indeed become a star.    

If pitchers can go to Driveline in the offseason to pimp up their stuff, why can't hitters go to a  recognition/plate discipline bootcamp?  Mountcastle and Mateo would both benefit from a trip to Camp Rutschman.    

Ah, the crux of the biscuit: can plate discipline be taught/improved? This was a prime topic in the Adam Jones era (not just Jones but the whole org.). It's evident recent draft philosophy has changed accordingly. But as for players predisposed to chasing... is there any recent track record of improving that skill/talent through coaching?

[Baltimorecuse]

I call chasing bad pitches Adam Jones disease.  I said Mateo has the POTENTIAL to be a super star.  You can coach speed or power and he has both.  

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

I wouldn’t trade him now, but we’re about to have a lot of ML quality players in the IF. If we can move him, or another player, in the offseason for a decent SP we should do it. Even if he’s not a headliner, he’s a compelling second piece. 

The way I look at it, Mateo is our shortstop. It's important to have a strong defender at shortstop, going all the way to back to Doc Adams. (Right, Drungo?) I wouldn't think about moving Mateo until we have a pretty good idea that we've got someone else, whether it's Henderson or Westburg or Holliday or someone else, who's shown he's a better major-league shortstop. If that happens, which may not be until a few years from now, you might keep Mateo anyway for his speed and defense off the bench, but that would the point to think about his trade value. Not now. (The usual qualification for a deal that bowls you over, blah, blah, blah.)

[FlaO'sFan]

13 minutes ago, now said:

Ah, the crux of the biscuit: can plate discipline be taught/improved? This was a prime topic in the Adam Jones era (not just Jones but the whole org.). It's evident recent draft philosophy has changed accordingly. But as for players predisposed to chasing... is there any recent track record of improving that skill/talent through coaching?

It's a very fair question to ask if it's possible for a hitter to become much more disciplined at the plate. My personal feeling is that it should be with the right coaching and also with the desire to. Maybe hitters are just who they are and you live with that. With Adam Jones, however, and I admit that it is nothing more than just my opinion, is that he simply did not want to change his approach.  That doesn't mean I didn't appreciate him and what he did for the O's, I rooted for him like any other O's fan, it's just my honest take on the situation.

Edited July 30, 2022 by FlaO'sFan

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, FlaO'sFan said:

It's a very fair question to ask if it's possible for a hitter to become much more disciplined at the plate. My personal feeling is that it should be with the right coaching and also with the desire to. Maybe hitters are just who they are and you live with that. With Adam Jones, however, and I admit that it is nothing more than just my opinion, is that he simply did not want to change his approach.  That doesn't mean I didn't appreciate him and what he did for the O's, I rooted for him like any other O's fan, it's just my honest take on the situation.

I think you’re right.  And Trumbo said in an interview that he tried being more disciplined, but it just made him a worse, more tentative hitter, so he reverted.  I’m sure that’s true for many players.  

What’s notable in the Elias regime is they are actually valuing plate discipline when they draft guys.   So, they’re teaching it in their system, but they’re also drafting guys who are predisposed to be disciplined hitters.   And I’m really happy about that.  The O’s have had far too few of those types of players for the last 20+ years.   
 

[FlaO'sFan]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What’s notable in the Elias regime is they are actually valuing plate discipline when they draft guys.   
 

I am personally driven crazy by undisciplined hitters so that is music to the ears for me .

Edited July 30, 2022 by FlaO'sFan