Trey Mancini Traded to the Astros

[ChuckS]

15 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Now #8 and #12 in ours https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles/

Very generous ranking on McDermott. 

[Rojo13]

I am not sure if I've posted on here in 4 years. Not entirely because the Os have stunk (mainly my wife and I had our first kid). Anyways, the last time I was on here regularly. I remember half the board was irate that we didn't blow up the team at the trade deadline in 2017. 

I did NOT want to throw in the towel. At the time, we were only 6.5 games out of first and had a 4.3% chance of making the playoffs. Given that I knew the bottom was going to fall out soon, I was all for trying to make it on fumes then or in 2018 as I knew some horrific times were coming.

Now are playoff odds are almost half that - 2.4% - which has more teams in it and some are made we aren't trying to add players? The future looks good in a year or two. We need to keep building for that not hoping for a 1/50 shot to get eliminated when the playoffs start.

This is a trade that had to be made. I'm stunned by what we got. We seemingly got nothing for Manny in hindsight.

Even when we have a legitimate play off team, this honestly is the type of trade we probably should still make if the small-market Orioles want to be competitive on a regular basis. Personally, I think selling the future for a slightly better team now is almost never a good idea. 

I know I'm in the minority, but I'd rather have had EROD in the starting rotation for for 5 years than Andy miller for 5 weeks, particularly since we didn't win it all.

 

 

 

[Satyr3206]

For a 2 month rental, good return. Diaz is on the clock. If he doesn't show something he's gone.

[brvn52]

Excellent trade. Hurts emotionally, but smart move. Mancini can’t have a ton of value and you arguably got a top 10 guy organizationally (Johnson) a top 20-25 guy (McDermott) - in the best system in baseball. 

Meanwhile, you clear up close to $3M and, more importantly, create space for Diaz and Stowers to get AB’s.

[Just Regular]

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&filter=&pos=&team=bal

Looks like Fangraphs Eric Longenhagen starting the new pitchers at 12th and 24th in his BAL rankings.

[Rojo13]

From FanGarphs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/orioles-prioritize-head-over-heart-trade-trey-mancini-to-astros/ Totally worth it if you think about it like this.

. If we use Kyle Stowers as his replacement, that costs the O’s, on average, a third of a win relative to Mancini, per ZiPS. That reduces the team’s projected playoff probability by about 0.7 percentage points, to 4.8%. By ZiPS’ reckoning, the Mancini/Stowers swap only has approximately a 1-in-140 chance of changing the team’s playoff status one way or the other at season’s end.

But what if the Orioles are even better than ZiPS thinks? ZiPS projected their roster strength as .455 before the trade, but what happens if I instead tell it that this is actually a .500 team? The trade still only changes the eventual playoff outcome once in 45 opportunities.

[MurphDogg]

8 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&filter=&pos=&team=bal

Looks like Fangraphs Eric Longenhagen starting the new pitchers at 12th and 24th in his BAL rankings.

That makes more sense to me than the 8 and 12 from MLB Pipeline. I just can't see Johnson over Kjerstad or McDermott ahead of Rom, based on what I have read.

Edited August 2, 2022 by MurphDogg

[linedrive]

Good trade. I like the strategy. Elias is thinking outside the box, and that's what we need to compete in this division. It's a smart gamble and worth while.

[LookinUp]

7 hours ago, RVAOsFan said:

I don’t really understand why we are viewing Vavra as a future starting infielder on this team.  He was splitting time between OF and IF in the minors and since he has been called up he has been in the OF and DH. I think they see something in his bat and speed but obviously his IF defense must be questionable or we would have seen him there by now.

He would be holding 2B for Westburg and maybe Prieto or Norby. Future bench guy who could be really value. Really a shame the NL got rid of the DH because he’d have been a great double switch pinch hitter type.

[maybenxtyr]

There's enough people on here that know better about the return than I do. The consensus is pleased. 

 

Obviously Trey is an awesome guy, so that's where it hurts for me. What they do as far as bringing up MiL guys is more important than anything else that happens today. At some point they have to come up.

[Redskins Rick]

9 hours ago, Rojo13 said:

I am not sure if I've posted on here in 4 years. Not entirely because the Os have stunk (mainly my wife and I had our first kid). Anyways, the last time I was on here regularly. I remember half the board was irate that we didn't blow up the team at the trade deadline in 2017. 

I did NOT want to throw in the towel. At the time, we were only 6.5 games out of first and had a 4.3% chance of making the playoffs. Given that I knew the bottom was going to fall out soon, I was all for trying to make it on fumes then or in 2018 as I knew some horrific times were coming.

Now are playoff odds are almost half that - 2.4% - which has more teams in it and some are made we aren't trying to add players? The future looks good in a year or two. We need to keep building for that not hoping for a 1/50 shot to get eliminated when the playoffs start.

This is a trade that had to be made. I'm stunned by what we got. We seemingly got nothing for Manny in hindsight.

Even when we have a legitimate play off team, this honestly is the type of trade we probably should still make if the small-market Orioles want to be competitive on a regular basis. Personally, I think selling the future for a slightly better team now is almost never a good idea. 

I know I'm in the minority, but I'd rather have had EROD in the starting rotation for for 5 years than Andy miller for 5 weeks, particularly since we didn't win it all.

 

 

 

The one thing you are forgetting about with the Miller trade. Detroit wanted him and needed him badly as they had no bullpen. With Andy, the Tigers might have won it all. Edrod turned into a very good pitcher, but he was still putting it together at AA, and most likely the trade woke him up to maybe taking coaching advice. Hindsight shows that the pitchers they thought they had higher on the depth carts, and TOR, all busted out as TORs.

[sportsfan8703]

I don’t like that we had to make the trade. I can see why Elias did. By not buying, we were falling behind every other team in front of us for the WC. 
 

I do like the return. IMO it’s better than the two pitchers we were wanting from the NYM. 
 

And a three way trade… oh the possibilities. 

[interloper]

Today: Santander? Lyles? Lopez? Tate? Mullins or Hays? Akin? Perez? None of the above? 

The opportunity exists to both buy and sell.  I'm pretty intrigued to see what happens. Elias' comments definitely suggest they're not done. If they were basically done and just listening he could have said something to that effect. I think he was prepping people mentally for more trades. 

I think you have to move an outfielder today at a minimum. 

[Redskins Rick]

45 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t like that we had to make the trade. I can see why Elias did. By not buying, we were falling behind every other team in front of us for the WC. 
 

I do like the return. IMO it’s better than the two pitchers we were wanting from the NYM. 
 

And a three way trade… oh the possibilities. 

Sorry, I dont like the return, one is damaged goods.

2 single-a arms, going to take a while for them to progress and "maybe" make it up to the big leagues.

 

[Redskins Rick]

Being a WC team for a bit of time, was more fun, than we have had in the last few years, sad to wave bye to that hope.