O's Fans Held Hostage - Day 19

[davearm]

I may be wrong but I don't believe Pena ever went to arbitration. Again I'm not aware of a player who won an arbitration case being cut loose after the award is made.

The Padres tried this with Todd Walker a few years ago.

Walker and the Union decided to let it drop IIRC, but there was talk of filing a grievance. At any rate it was contentious as to whether or not the Padres were within their rights.

link

[Mackus]

The 1/6th rule you're citing is not in place to provide a means of dumping guys you were hoping would decline arb. It's in place to protect teams in cases where the player shows up in the spring exhibiting "diminished skills" (or somesuch language).

So long as Hawkins could still run the same flat fastball and blah slider up to the plate as he could at the end of the previous season, the Union would file a grievance, and whip up on a team trying to do what you're proposing.

And even if the O's could wiggle off the hook, then they'd be out $1M, have no picks, and people would still carp about how the situation was bungled.

"Diminished skills" could mean anything. Or it could mean they felt they had better options. The Union would have no grounds for an appeal.

Hawkins made $4.35M in 2006. He had a 4.48 ERA in 60 innings. Its very unlikely he would have won an arbitration hearing for something in the $5M range. We could have offered him whatever we wanted because the 20% rule doesn't apply to FAs. Odds are he would have countered with something in the $4.5M range, we would offer about $3M if it went that far. Settle in the middle, then cut him and pay him 30 days pay of about $900k. That amount of money is well worth the gamble that all of the above happens. It was about a 90% chance he'd decline and sign elsewhere. He got $3.5M deal with an option as a FA.

I'd risk $1M for a 10-1 or even 5-1 chance of getting a sandwich pick every time I had the chance.

I'll say it again, it was a stupid decision to not offer Hawkins arbitration. It was only a small mistake in the long run, but it doesn't mean it was not stupid. I vehemently disagree with anybody who has a contradictory opinion on this particular issue.

[tvdoc]

This is eminently reasonable, SG. Like I said, a difference in temperment. But, to be clear, I'm not crowning AM yet. I've listed the things I want to see. And I do. I'm just not judging him yet, especially with a market that's as strange as the one going on now: with the shifts in player valuation (focus downward) and the drop in the economy at large, it's volatile. Taking the full offseason, and even this season, to further a plan is okay by me.

McFail thinks the longer he waits the less salary he will have to pay any Free Agent. I don't think he will sign anyone that wants over 1 million $. PA&AM

what a pair of cheapskates.

[Guest rochester]

I just wish more people would listen to Dave concrning AM. He's lived through it.

Man, the TEX ordeal has made many on here take off the gloves..

It's all about results so I would not expect Dave to be extremely positive, but then again there will be a time very soon that Hendry's "purchases" may turn out even worse because I just do not see The Cubs getting over the hump.

BB:

Duq is an ok baseball man - he is neither as bad as some think nor as good as you think (every mistake he made is someone else's fault or blamed on PA?)

MacPhail is not as good as some think but not as bad as you think (every bad or no move he has made is his fault not someone else's or PA?). It can not be both ways-but knowing that there is a personal relationship there leads me to believe that an unfortunate bias is almost always present.

To always come back with "I liked the Bedard and Tejada trades" to justify your distaste is getting old and beneath you.

Bottom line, IMO, is if both are working under the same circumstances of PA's heavy hand then AM has performed much better. We have become more focused on upgrading scouting comprehensively. Unfortunately, Duq has been burned too many times and may have the "I am the Sucker" sign on his forehead, which from what you have told us, is not accurate or fair. Whether fair or accurate does not matter - others will always be looking to take advantage, thus providing lesser opportunities to improve a team.

With SG, I do not believe that there is a GM that could perform to his expectations. Although I tend to agree with many of his ideas but this just is not Fantasy Baseball unless your the MFYs and Red Sawx. What drives me nuts is the cursory actions taken when we should be more aggressive - I think that no one could argue with SG on that point.

[jcroemer]

McFail thinks the longer he waits the less salary he will have to pay any Free Agent. I don't think he will sign anyone that wants over 1 million $. PA&AM

what a pair of cheapskates.

It's not like we're winning anything. These are, pardon the term, warm bodies to hold a position until a better solution presents itself.

Why pay top-dollar for that? Pay replacement level.

[mweb]

I disagree with both points. Of course, maybe the Yankees then up thIf the O's offered 8/$192M, I think he'd be here. eir offer and match. I'd have gone as high as the 8/$200M range, or something like a 9/$207M ($23M per year) to get him.

The low $200M's is where I would have dropped out of the bidding in terms of total money. I don't think any other team would have gone that high.

Well based on the "logic" so many have on here, it would have been moronic for the Yanks to not beat or at least match that 8/192 offer since they were already willing to offer 8/180. So with your approach, even if Boras gave the O's a chance to up their offer, the Yanks would have still gotten Tex, unless they were even more dumb than many consider AM to be for not beating the 8/180.

[Guest rochester]

It's not like we're winning anything. These are, pardon the term, warm bodies to hold a position until a better solution presents itself.

Why pay top-dollar for that? Pay replacement level.

Agree but the most exciting tidbit was BB's guy wondering if the salary dumps, etc. may be a sign of going through "maintenance mode" of readying the organization for sale. I am not a fan of The Ravens but have respect for what Biscotti (sp?) is doing - I thought Harbaugh was a great choice before the season started... Forget Tex, AJ and them bums - give me SB and Cal!

[davearm]

"Diminished skills" could mean anything. Or it could mean they felt they had better options. The Union would have no grounds for an appeal.

Hawkins made $4.35M in 2006. He had a 4.48 ERA in 60 innings. Its very unlikely he would have won an arbitration hearing for something in the $5M range. We could have offered him whatever we wanted because the 20% rule doesn't apply to FAs. Odds are he would have countered with something in the $4.5M range, we would offer about $3M if it went that far. Settle in the middle, then cut him and pay him 30 days pay of about $900k. That amount of money is well worth the gamble that all of the above happens. It was about a 90% chance he'd decline and sign elsewhere. He got $3.5M deal with an option as a FA.

I'd risk $1M for a 10-1 or even 5-1 chance of getting a sandwich pick every time I had the chance.

I'll say it again, it was a stupid decision to not offer Hawkins arbitration. It was only a small mistake in the long run, but it doesn't mean it was not stupid. I vehemently disagree with anybody who has a contradictory opinion on this particular issue.

You can disagree as vehemently as you want, but the fact remains that the rule you're citing is not meant to be used in the manner you're describing.

Besides which, I'm still confused as to why you think Hawkins would've declined arb if it was offered. That would've been dumb, unless he was willing to take less $$$ just to get out of Baltimore. Regardless it would've been a big (and arguably stupid) risk for the O's to take.

[RShack]

BTW, exactly what exactly does "Day 19" represent?

We've supposedly been "hostages" beginning with what event?

[Mackus]

Well based on the "logic" so many have on here, it would have been moronic for the Yanks to not beat or at least match that 8/192 offer since they were already willing to offer 8/180. So with your approach, even if Boras gave the O's a chance to up their offer, the Yanks would have still gotten Tex, unless they were even more dumb than many consider AM to be for not beating the 8/180.

Yeah, if both the Orioles and Yankees had topped out at a value I think the O's should have, and he still chose the Yankees, I wouldn't be upset with MacPhail, I'd just be disappointed.

But, since we didn't go as high as we should have been willing, IMO, I feel I'm well within reason to be very upset with how MacPhail handled the situation.

[jcroemer]

Agree but the most exciting tidbit was BB's guy wondering if the salary dumps, etc. may be a sign of going through "maintenance mode" of readying the organization for sale. I am not a fan of The Ravens but have respect for what Biscotti (sp?) is doing - I thought Harbaugh was a great choice before the season started... Forget Tex, AJ and them bums - give me SB and Cal!

100% on board with that plan.

[Mackus]

BTW, exactly what exactly does "Day 19" represent?

We've supposedly been "hostages" beginning with what event?

An arbitrarily date decided upon by Bigbird.

[Shopay]

BTW, exactly what exactly does "Day 19" represent?

We've supposedly been "hostages" beginning with what event?

I believe BigBird based it off of the date Izteris (sp?) signed or was announced.

[JTrea81]

An arbitrarily date decided upon by Bigbird.

It's been 20 days since we did anything significant (Izturis signing).

I had a similar signature line before the Bedard deal. It showed how long we did absolutely nothing before the Bedard trade occurred. I think we went to 40 something if I remember...

MacPhail can't do the same this time for Roberts. He has too much to do this offseason, so I'm adopting the signature once again...

[mweb]

LJ...Not going to answer this?

Not much other than the Ramon trade, and the Izturis signing. Of course that's cherry picking to say the least, if we extend it to include all of the last off season, we'd be able to include two huge trades for this organization, and if we wait until the end of this offseason, we likely will have more to include in this. It is silly not to wait until the off season is over before ripping AM over this.