Vavra and Stowers 2023

[Moose Milligan]

Let me put it this way:  If I had to, I'd much rather give Terrin Vavra 535 at bats before giving Austin Hays another 535 at bats.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't care if Vavra doesn't have any power.  He's arguably the 2nd best guy on the roster behind Rutschman as far as a plate approach goes.  He's not swinging all over the place.  12 walks, 19 strikeouts.  And that might get better.  His on base percentage in his 103 plate appearances in Baltimore was .340.

If he can maintain that OBP clip and play adequate defense at 2 or 3 positions we've got a guy who doesn't totally hurt us when he's in the lineup and make sense as a leadoff hitter on the days where Mullins gets a spell. 

I don't care if he doesn't hit a homer for all of 2023, as long as he's not a total liability with the bat, can work a count and play solid defense that's very valuable.  

I'm not sold the glove is strong enough.

But I guess we can see.

[sportsfan8703]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Let me put it this way:  If I had to, I'd much rather give Terrin Vavra 535 at bats before giving Austin Hays another 535 at bats.

Hays had 35 doubles in a down year. I like Vavra, but I think he’s a poor man’s Zobrist, which isn’t bad. It’s just he’s a bench piece and maybe even an up/down guy based on roster needs. Honestly, with Westburg up next year, and Urias still here, I don’t know if we have room for Vavra on the 26 man roster. He’d be the 4th bench guy behind Urias, McKenna, and back up C. 

[Tony-OH]

Some unbelievers in Stowers because of his swing and miss. I like to look at this way:

Through his first 98 big league PAs, despite being platooned for some reason even though he has generally hit left handers as well or better in the minors:

1. His .316 wOBA (the one stat that I feel gives the best value of hitter) was 4th on the team and above league avg of .310. His xwOBA (expected based on how hard he hit the ball and what launch angle) was .335 meaning he was a bit unlucky.

2. His 11.3% barrel rate was 3rd on the team behind just Mountcastle and Santander

3. His 50% hard hit% was second only to Gunnar (limited PAs for both obvious)

4. His 91.1 EV avg was 3rd only behind Gunnar and Mountcastle

5. Over his 13 games (10 starts) of the season when he was getting more regular playing time, he slashed .290/.325/.553/.878 in 40 PAs.

So despite some questionable usage over his time in the big leagues this year (never starting against a lefty and sat on the bench way too much in favor of Jesus Aguilar), he actually held up pretty well offensively.

Now let's talk defense. Much has been said about his defense, mostly from the real bad play in LF that allowed a double to fall in against the Nationals, but if you look at OAA, his struggles were in left field where he played just 56 games in the minors compared to a 143 in RF and 60 in CF (why he was playing center is not really understood by me). In LF in the majors, he put up a -2 OAA in just 13 games out there and 10 starts. In RF, he was 0 OAA and actually considered to have a 1% expected catch added meaning he was fine in RF. Oh, and his 96 MPH max throw and 88.1 AVG is just fine in RF.

So when you say you don't like him defensively, you are probably referring to that play or the -0.5 dWAR rWAR said he put up in a short time (pretty ridiculous if you asked me but I've always thought their dWAR numbers were a bit off) or maybe the -2 OAA overall. But again, most of that damage was done in LF. 

Now, he did not get good jumps on balls but he did improve his route running in his time in the big leagues, but I'd like to see him play a bunch in RF only and then see how his defense holds up.

Overall, I still see Stowers as a solid everyday RFer who is going to hit for some good power though it's going to come with strikeouts. He IS NOT a platoon player so Hyde or whoever made out the lineups this year needs to get that through their heads. I'd like to see him as the everyday RF with Santander going to DH when not giving Stowers a day off in RF.

 

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Let me put it this way:  If I had to, I'd much rather give Terrin Vavra 535 at bats before giving Austin Hays another 535 at bats.

I like Vavra a lot, but I think this is crazy talk.  Hays put up 2.3 rWAR this year and 3.1 last year.  He’s a solid player and the fact that he had a poor second half of the season doesn’t change that; the overall numbers are what they are.  Vavra meanwhile was worth 0.1 rWAR in 103 PA.   I think he can improve with experience, and I hope we find a way to get him 400 at bats next year, but if I had to choose between the two players, I’d definitely choose Hays, even though I prefer Vavra’s plate discipline to Hays’.

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Some unbelievers in Stowers because of his swing and miss. I like to look at this way:

Through his first 98 big league PAs, despite being platooned for some reason even though he has generally hit left handers as well or better in the minors:

1. His .316 wOBA (the one stat that I feel gives the best value of hitter) was 4th on the team and above league avg of .310. His xwOBA (expected based on how hard he hit the ball and what launch angle) was .335 meaning he was a bit unlucky.

2. His 11.3% barrel rate was 3rd on the team behind just Mountcastle and Santander

3. His 50% hard hit% was second only to Gunnar (limited PAs for both obvious)

4. His 91.1 EV avg was 3rd only behind Gunnar and Mountcastle

5. Over his 13 games (10 starts) of the season when he was getting more regular playing time, he slashed .290/.325/.553/.878 in 40 PAs.

So despite some questionable usage over his time in the big leagues this year (never starting against a lefty and sat on the bench way too much in favor of Jesus Aguilar), he actually held up pretty well offensively.

Now let's talk defense. Much has been said about his defense, mostly from the real bad play in LF that allowed a double to fall in against the Nationals, but if you look at OAA, his struggles were in left field where he played just 56 games in the minors compared to a 143 in RF and 60 in CF (why he was playing center is not really understood by me). In LF in the majors, he put up a -2 OAA in just 13 games out there and 10 starts. In RF, he was 0 OAA and actually considered to have a 1% expected catch added meaning he was fine in RF. Oh, and his 96 MPH max throw and 88.1 AVG is just fine in RF.

So when you say you don't like him defensively, you are probably referring to that play or the -0.5 dWAR rWAR said he put up in a short time (pretty ridiculous if you asked me but I've always thought their dWAR numbers were a bit off) or maybe the -2 OAA overall. But again, most of that damage was done in LF. 

Now, he did not get good jumps on balls but he did improve his route running in his time in the big leagues, but I'd like to see him play a bunch in RF only and then see how his defense holds up.

Overall, I still see Stowers as a solid everyday RFer who is going to hit for some good power though it's going to come with strikeouts. He IS NOT a platoon player so Hyde or whoever made out the lineups this year needs to get that through their heads. I'd like to see him as the everyday RF with Santander going to DH when not giving Stowers a day off in RF.

 

This is a really good post.  I think Stowers’ hitting is going to be fine.  He’s still in the learning phase but his major league numbers are going to look about how you’d expect based on his minor league numbers, I think.  

Defensively, I have some qualms even in RF because he’s a bit slower than I’d expected and he seems a little tentative at times.   But again, he may improve once he’s gotten used to playing in big league ballparks and how the ball comes off the bat of major league hitters.  

Overall, I don’t see a star, but I do see a guy who can help a big league club.  

 

[vab]

The great thing about this and all the other debates we're having about the roster is there are so many options and just about all of them can probably be useful under the right circumstances. Elias has done such a great job setting this organization up with so much flexibility in trades and free agency. I have never looked forward to an offseason like I am this one. 

[jamalshw]

I like both guys and hope they're both on the team next year from day 1 (unless either is part of a trade that brings in a top talent). I'd like to see Stowers playing RF/DH mostly everyday (even against LHP). I don't view him as a middle-of-the-order hitter at the Major League level, but ideally, he's slide in as a very good power threat from somewhere around the 7-hole. 

As for Vavra, I think we have a super-sub here. Right now he's limited to 2B and OF. I'd like to see him work out some at 1B and any other position that the team feels he could play at a least a moderate level to increase his versatility. Depending on what happens with Mateo, Westburg and Ortiz, we don't really need a utility player that can play SS (though if Urias is still on the team, he's at least an emergency option there). A bench made up of a backup catcher, Vavra, McKenna, and one of Urias/Mateo/Westburg/Ortiz (depending on who is on the team and who is traded/in the minors) is a very solid bench and way ahead of what we had to start the year this year. We saw Hays wear down this year down the stretch. Vavra could get some ABs there as well as filling in at 2B, DH and maybe 1B here and there and easily get 3-4 starts a week. 

[Moose Milligan]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I like Vavra a lot, but I think this is crazy talk.  Hays put up 2.3 rWAR this year and 3.1 last year.  He’s a solid player and the fact that he had a poor second half of the season doesn’t change that; the overall numbers are what they are.  Vavra meanwhile was worth 0.1 rWAR in 103 PA.   I think he can improve with experience, and I hope we find a way to get him 400 at bats next year, but if I had to choose between the two players, I’d definitely choose Hays, even though I prefer Vavra’s plate discipline to Hays’.

That's right, Froberto Clemente, I am crazy.

When Hays is hot, he's great.  But there was a good chunk of the summer where he was pretty much an automatic out.  

Hacking is out, plate discipline is in.  So like I said, I don't care if Vavra doesn't have any power, his on base percentage (limited sample size, I'm aware) was .036 points higher.  AS A ROOKIE.  Hays has been in the majors since 2017, somewhat consistently since 2019.  

Vavra is 0.1 and I'm assuming that has a lot to do with the lack of power.  But at the very least he makes pitchers work, he's not a threat at every at bat to make a one pitch out.   At most, he's not making outs as often as Hays is.  

I'm sorry Frob, I know you like Hays too and I do recognize that he's a very solid player but watching him hack all summer and trying to hit 8 run homers and just swinging himself into a deeper slump is just infuriating.  I am so tired of seeing guys swing at stuff out of the zone and not making pitchers work and Hays is a prime offender.  

 

EDIT:  It should also be noted that Hays' OBP was only .002 points lower than his superb 2021 season.  

Edited October 6, 2022 by Moose Milligan

[OriolesMagic83]

What kind of OF does Stowers project to be?  Is he slightly below average Santander type OF or is he the what the hell is he doing out here Mancini type.  I never heard too much negative on his fielding in the minors, although I wasn't reading every post about him.  Seems like more would have been posted about his defense if it was that bad. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

What kind of OF does Stowers project to be?  Is he slightly below average Santander type OF or is he the what the hell is he doing out here Mancini type.  I never heard too much negative on his fielding in the minors, although I wasn't reading every post about him.  Seems like more would have been posted about his defense if it was that bad. 

I think Tony just spoke about his defense an hour ago:

55 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Some unbelievers in Stowers because of his swing and miss. I like to look at this way:

Through his first 98 big league PAs, despite being platooned for some reason even though he has generally hit left handers as well or better in the minors:

1. His .316 wOBA (the one stat that I feel gives the best value of hitter) was 4th on the team and above league avg of .310. His xwOBA (expected based on how hard he hit the ball and what launch angle) was .335 meaning he was a bit unlucky.

2. His 11.3% barrel rate was 3rd on the team behind just Mountcastle and Santander

3. His 50% hard hit% was second only to Gunnar (limited PAs for both obvious)

4. His 91.1 EV avg was 3rd only behind Gunnar and Mountcastle

5. Over his 13 games (10 starts) of the season when he was getting more regular playing time, he slashed .290/.325/.553/.878 in 40 PAs.

So despite some questionable usage over his time in the big leagues this year (never starting against a lefty and sat on the bench way too much in favor of Jesus Aguilar), he actually held up pretty well offensively.

Now let's talk defense. Much has been said about his defense, mostly from the real bad play in LF that allowed a double to fall in against the Nationals, but if you look at OAA, his struggles were in left field where he played just 56 games in the minors compared to a 143 in RF and 60 in CF (why he was playing center is not really understood by me). In LF in the majors, he put up a -2 OAA in just 13 games out there and 10 starts. In RF, he was 0 OAA and actually considered to have a 1% expected catch added meaning he was fine in RF. Oh, and his 96 MPH max throw and 88.1 AVG is just fine in RF.

So when you say you don't like him defensively, you are probably referring to that play or the -0.5 dWAR rWAR said he put up in a short time (pretty ridiculous if you asked me but I've always thought their dWAR numbers were a bit off) or maybe the -2 OAA overall. But again, most of that damage was done in LF. 

Now, he did not get good jumps on balls but he did improve his route running in his time in the big leagues, but I'd like to see him play a bunch in RF only and then see how his defense holds up.

Overall, I still see Stowers as a solid everyday RFer who is going to hit for some good power though it's going to come with strikeouts. He IS NOT a platoon player so Hyde or whoever made out the lineups this year needs to get that through their heads. I'd like to see him as the everyday RF with Santander going to DH when not giving Stowers a day off in RF.

 

 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Some unbelievers in Stowers because of his swing and miss. I like to look at this way:

Through his first 98 big league PAs, despite being platooned for some reason even though he has generally hit left handers as well or better in the minors:

1. His .316 wOBA (the one stat that I feel gives the best value of hitter) was 4th on the team and above league avg of .310. His xwOBA (expected based on how hard he hit the ball and what launch angle) was .335 meaning he was a bit unlucky.

2. His 11.3% barrel rate was 3rd on the team behind just Mountcastle and Santander

3. His 50% hard hit% was second only to Gunnar (limited PAs for both obvious)

4. His 91.1 EV avg was 3rd only behind Gunnar and Mountcastle

5. Over his 13 games (10 starts) of the season when he was getting more regular playing time, he slashed .290/.325/.553/.878 in 40 PAs.

So despite some questionable usage over his time in the big leagues this year (never starting against a lefty and sat on the bench way too much in favor of Jesus Aguilar), he actually held up pretty well offensively.

Now let's talk defense. Much has been said about his defense, mostly from the real bad play in LF that allowed a double to fall in against the Nationals, but if you look at OAA, his struggles were in left field where he played just 56 games in the minors compared to a 143 in RF and 60 in CF (why he was playing center is not really understood by me). In LF in the majors, he put up a -2 OAA in just 13 games out there and 10 starts. In RF, he was 0 OAA and actually considered to have a 1% expected catch added meaning he was fine in RF. Oh, and his 96 MPH max throw and 88.1 AVG is just fine in RF.

So when you say you don't like him defensively, you are probably referring to that play or the -0.5 dWAR rWAR said he put up in a short time (pretty ridiculous if you asked me but I've always thought their dWAR numbers were a bit off) or maybe the -2 OAA overall. But again, most of that damage was done in LF. 

Now, he did not get good jumps on balls but he did improve his route running in his time in the big leagues, but I'd like to see him play a bunch in RF only and then see how his defense holds up.

Overall, I still see Stowers as a solid everyday RFer who is going to hit for some good power though it's going to come with strikeouts. He IS NOT a platoon player so Hyde or whoever made out the lineups this year needs to get that through their heads. I'd like to see him as the everyday RF with Santander going to DH when not giving Stowers a day off in RF.

 

Why do you think Stowers is a better RF than Santander?

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

That's right, Froberto Clemente, I am crazy.

When Hays is hot, he's great.  But there was a good chunk of the summer where he was pretty much an automatic out.  

Hacking is out, plate discipline is in.  So like I said, I don't care if Vavra doesn't have any power, his on base percentage (limited sample size, I'm aware) was .036 points higher.  AS A ROOKIE.  Hays has been in the majors since 2017, somewhat consistently since 2019.  

Vavra is 0.1 and I'm assuming that has a lot to do with the lack of power.  But at the very least he makes pitchers work, he's not a threat at every at bat to make a one pitch out.   At most, he's not making outs as often as Hays is.  

I'm sorry Frob, I know you like Hays too and I do recognize that he's a very solid player but watching him hack all summer and trying to hit 8 run homers and just swinging himself into a deeper slump is just infuriating.  I am so tired of seeing guys swing at stuff out of the zone and not making pitchers work and Hays is a prime offender.  

 

EDIT:  It should also be noted that Hays' OBP was only .002 points lower than his superb 2021 season.  

First of all, as I already said, I prefer Vavra’s plate discipline and approach to Hays’.   I’m not going to argue there.  

Second, I personally believe Vavra has significantly more power than he showed in the majors this year.  He’s never going to be a big HR guy, but he’s not going to carry an .079 ISO over the long term either.   His minor league ISO is .162, and .127 in AAA this year.   So I definitely think we will see a better version of Vavra offensively in 2023, and more frequent doubles and occasional homers.   

Saying that, he’s never going to have as much power as Hays, and he’s not nearly as good an outfielder.  His arm is well below average IMO, both as an infielder and an outfielder.   I just think Vavra’s best role will be a guy who plays a few positions adequately and starts 3-4 times a week somewhere and pinch hits occasionally.  

As to Hays, I think he’ll probably continue to be the player we’re seen in 2021-22 with his ups and downs, but I do think it’s possible he takes a step forward and I’d like to see him get that chance unless we are upgrading some other way than giving his at bats to Vavra.  

 

[btdart20]

I believe Stowers has the greater upside and a clearer path to playing time.

That said:  heading into 2023, I'm a little more interested in stacking Vavra's OBP 9th (ahead of the top OPS guys) than Stower's SLG in the 6-7 spot.  

 

[George Zuverink]

This thread seemed like a good place to ask a question I’ve been pondering. Back in the day when The Oriole Way meant something other than Tanking for 1-1, I really liked the Singleton/Lowenstein  pairing in LF. Looking at the assets we have in the system now and the vastly different LF dimensions and geometry, what pairing would best replicate that Magic?