Vavra and Stowers 2023

[DrungoHazewood]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

Why so down on Stowers?  He had an excellent year in AAA and a decent debut in the majors.   I’m optimistic he can be a solid contributor.  

There are a lot of 2022 MLB players who hit something like .240/.310/.450, which is about where I think Stowers could/should land.  That's basically Santander.  It's Adolis Garcia, or Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, or Randy Arozarena with less speed.  A RFer with an 120 OPS+ can play, even on a good team.

[Aristotelian]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There are a lot of 2022 MLB players who hit something like .240/.310/.450, which is about where I think Stowers could/should land.  That's basically Santander.  It's Adolis Garcia, or Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, or Randy Arozarena with less speed.  A RFer with an 120 OPS+ can play, even on a good team.

I was most disappointed in his defense. What I saw was mostly in LF and Tony posted some numbers suggesting he might be better in RF. I also like the idea of trying him at 1B. Fangraphs had him on pace for about -7 runs, so again Santander could be a decent comp defensively as well as offensively (fortunately, he does not appear to be Trumbo level bad). 

Sure, we can have a couple of average D/average bat guys on a winning team. The problem is when all your prime positions are filled with those guys, and that's what it seems like we have with this group. Then you end up with 82-85 wins.

I definitely think Stowers should get a chance to see if he is really a 120 OPS+ guy, but if he turns out to be a 104 OPS+ guy it's going to be frustrating and something may have to give between him, Hays, and Mountcastle.

[orioles22]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

Why so down on Stowers?  He had an excellent year in AAA and a decent debut in the majors.   I’m optimistic he can be a solid contributor.  

No concrete reasons, I admit. I just don't see him being better overall than Hays or Santander, and certainly not a fourth outfielder who plays great defense.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

No concrete reasons, I admit. I just don't see him being better overall than Hays or Santander, and certainly not a fourth outfielder who plays great defense.

I think it’s possible Stowers will be better than either.  I’m not saying it’s likely, just possible.  First of all, I think Santander’s a bit overrated.  He hit .240/.318/.455 and played significantly below average defense.  He was worth 2.1 rWAR, 2.5 fWAR and for his career he’s at 4.5/4.0.   The 33 dingers and improved plate discipline were nice, but who knows if he’ll match it again.   It feels to me like Stowers will put up similar numbers, if not this year, then soon.  

Hays meanwhile hit .250/.306/.413 and the metrics give a mixed picture of his defense.  He was worth 2.3 rWAR, 1.5 fWAR.   If you believe that’s all he’s got, it seems Stowers could give you equal or better production.

And then, there’s the fact that 2022 was the first time that both Santander and Hays avoided the IL all year.  Will that happen again?

So, for me it all adds up to Stowers having a decent chance to get a lot of playing time.   It’s certainly not guaranteed to happen.
 

[orioles22]

I hope he surprises me.

I feel good about the chances of Cowser being a regular in left with Mullins center. I think I'd go with Hays in right and Santander at DH most nights. I know it rarely works out like we expect though.

[wildcard]

Stowers' AAA stats showed power, the ability to get on base and being a run producers.

349 AB,  19 HR, 78 RBI, 264/357/527/884

He certainly deserves more than 34 games in the majors before drawing a conclusion on him.

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Stowers' AAA stats showed power, the ability to get on base and being a run producers.

349 AB,  19 HR, 78 RBI, 264/357/527/884

He certainly deserves more than 34 games in the majors before drawing a conclusion on him.

Especially since his numbers in those 34 games weren’t bad (.253/.306/.418), and were climbing as he went (.300/.333/.550 in his last 16 games).   

[Jammer7]

A lot of good things in this thread. With Vavra, the defense kills it for me. I like the OBP and his swing, in general. I wonder how much the back issues have sapped his athleticism. From what I have seen in 2022, I don’t see much future in Baltimore for Vavra.

Stowers is a guy who I expected to play much more. They seemingly protected him, playing him mostly in matchups they felt he would have the best chance to succeed. The defense is average to me, at best. The routes and way he tracks does not inspire confidence, but it’s passable if he rakes. Stowers needs to get bigger and stronger, which will likely slow him down a bit. Is there a lack of confidence in him from the major league staff? I don’t think so. I think they protected him, but we’ll see. I don’t see an star caliber RF, but a solid role player on a good team. 

[RZNJ]

35 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

A lot of good things in this thread. With Vavra, the defense kills it for me. I like the OBP and his swing, in general. I wonder how much the back issues have sapped his athleticism. From what I have seen in 2022, I don’t see much future in Baltimore for Vavra.

Stowers is a guy who I expected to play much more. They seemingly protected him, playing him mostly in matchups they felt he would have the best chance to succeed. The defense is average to me, at best. The routes and way he tracks does not inspire confidence, but it’s passable if he rakes. Stowers needs to get bigger and stronger, which will likely slow him down a bit. Is there a lack of confidence in him from the major league staff? I don’t think so. I think they protected him, but we’ll see. I don’t see an star caliber RF, but a solid role player on a good team. 

Sorry, but we must be looking at two different Kyle Stowers.   The dude creates plenty of power and exit velocity.    He's lanky and long limbed but he's pretty solidly built.

[Jammer7]

55 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Sorry, but we must be looking at two different Kyle Stowers.   The dude creates plenty of power and exit velocity.    He's lanky and long limbed but he's pretty solidly built.

He does create a lot of exit velo and has barreled a lot of balls well, so far. Those numbers were against selected competition at the major league level. Max effort swings can hamper barrel accuracy, in general. Once the book gets out in him, I expect his barrel percentage and other numbers to dip. We’ll see what adjustments he makes then. 

He’s improved since being drafted, absolutely. Just my opinion, more strength would help him in various ways. More functional strength would help him at times when maybe he doesn’t barrel it optimally. Not just upper body, but lower body as well. OF over 162 games is a long season. 

I’m not talking about a huge increase, and I’m not sure how much he can really add anyway. All of these guys have to get stronger as they come up to stay stronger and healthier through the long season.

I am not down on him, and maybe I’m picking nits. I think there is a chance he ends up like a Corey Dickerson type. Not meant to be a true comp, but that’s what I see sometimes when I watch him.

Out of curiosity, what kind of “loose” comp would you throw out there on him?

[MarCakes21]

Make these two regulars or semi-regulars next season to see what you get.  They don't have any significant trade value, so its either keep or dump.

If you're spending money it should be solely on pitching.

[RZNJ]

17 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

He does create a lot of exit velo and has barreled a lot of balls well, so far. Those numbers were against selected competition at the major league level. Max effort swings can hamper barrel accuracy, in general. Once the book gets out in him, I expect his barrel percentage and other numbers to dip. We’ll see what adjustments he makes then. 

He’s improved since being drafted, absolutely. Just my opinion, more strength would help him in various ways. More functional strength would help him at times when maybe he doesn’t barrel it optimally. Not just upper body, but lower body as well. OF over 162 games is a long season. 

I’m not talking about a huge increase, and I’m not sure how much he can really add anyway. All of these guys have to get stronger as they come up to stay stronger and healthier through the long season.

I am not down on him, and maybe I’m picking nits. I think there is a chance he ends up like a Corey Dickerson type. Not meant to be a true comp, but that’s what I see sometimes when I watch him.

Out of curiosity, what kind of “loose” comp would you throw out there on him?

I haven’t really thought of a comp for Stowers.  I just think that strength is not something he lacks.    If he cuts his strikeouts to about 25% I think he’s probably going to be successful.   His damage per contract has always been very good and it was trending up in ML the last month.   I also think his defense in RF will be better than expected.  He was a little tentative, especially in LF where he had little experience.

Of course, barrel percentage is important and I’m concerned with him on almost anything inside, particularly the down and in breaking pitch.   

Edited October 23, 2022 by RZNJ

[Jammer7]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I haven’t really thought of a comp for Stowers.  I just think that strength is not something he lacks.    If he cuts his strikeouts to about 25% I think he’s probably going to be successful.   His damage per contract has always been very good and it was trending up in ML the last month.   I also think his defense in RF will be better than expected.  He was a little tentative, especially in LF where he had little experience.

Of course, barrel percentage is important and I’m concerned with him on almost anything inside, particularly the down and in breaking pitch.   

Agree on many things. If he can cut down on the level of effort in his swing, just a few %, he can make more contact. Getting stronger can help with that. Same damage with less effort. I do like his plate discipline.