Vavra and Stowers 2023

[nvpacchi]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Some unbelievers in Stowers because of his swing and miss. I like to look at this way:

Through his first 98 big league PAs, despite being platooned for some reason even though he has generally hit left handers as well or better in the minors:

1. His .316 wOBA (the one stat that I feel gives the best value of hitter) was 4th on the team and above league avg of .310. His xwOBA (expected based on how hard he hit the ball and what launch angle) was .335 meaning he was a bit unlucky.

2. His 11.3% barrel rate was 3rd on the team behind just Mountcastle and Santander

3. His 50% hard hit% was second only to Gunnar (limited PAs for both obvious)

4. His 91.1 EV avg was 3rd only behind Gunnar and Mountcastle

5. Over his 13 games (10 starts) of the season when he was getting more regular playing time, he slashed .290/.325/.553/.878 in 40 PAs.

So despite some questionable usage over his time in the big leagues this year (never starting against a lefty and sat on the bench way too much in favor of Jesus Aguilar), he actually held up pretty well offensively.

Now let's talk defense. Much has been said about his defense, mostly from the real bad play in LF that allowed a double to fall in against the Nationals, but if you look at OAA, his struggles were in left field where he played just 56 games in the minors compared to a 143 in RF and 60 in CF (why he was playing center is not really understood by me). In LF in the majors, he put up a -2 OAA in just 13 games out there and 10 starts. In RF, he was 0 OAA and actually considered to have a 1% expected catch added meaning he was fine in RF. Oh, and his 96 MPH max throw and 88.1 AVG is just fine in RF.

So when you say you don't like him defensively, you are probably referring to that play or the -0.5 dWAR rWAR said he put up in a short time (pretty ridiculous if you asked me but I've always thought their dWAR numbers were a bit off) or maybe the -2 OAA overall. But again, most of that damage was done in LF. 

Now, he did not get good jumps on balls but he did improve his route running in his time in the big leagues, but I'd like to see him play a bunch in RF only and then see how his defense holds up.

Overall, I still see Stowers as a solid everyday RFer who is going to hit for some good power though it's going to come with strikeouts. He IS NOT a platoon player so Hyde or whoever made out the lineups this year needs to get that through their heads. I'd like to see him as the everyday RF with Santander going to DH when not giving Stowers a day off in RF.

 

And he's now launched a ball >110 MPH, so the 55-60 raw power is definitely there!

[Moose Milligan]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

First of all, as I already said, I prefer Vavra’s plate discipline and approach to Hays’.   I’m not going to argue there.  

Second, I personally believe Vavra has significantly more power than he showed in the majors this year.  He’s never going to be a big HR guy, but he’s not going to carry an .079 ISO over the long term either.   His minor league ISO is .162, and .127 in AAA this year.   So I definitely think we will see a better version of Vavra offensively in 2023, and more frequent doubles and occasional homers.   

Saying that, he’s never going to have as much power as Hays, and he’s not nearly as good an outfielder.  His arm is well below average IMO, both as an infielder and an outfielder.   I just think Vavra’s best role will be a guy who plays a few positions adequately and starts 3-4 times a week somewhere and pinch hits occasionally.  

As to Hays, I think he’ll probably continue to be the player we’re seen in 2021-22 with his ups and downs, but I do think it’s possible he takes a step forward and I’d like to see him get that chance unless we are upgrading some other way than giving his at bats to Vavra.  

 

Great, I'm glad you agree with me

Yeah, he's not nearly as good of an outfielder and he doesn't have the arm.  

[NCRaven]

I like Vavra, but a super sub that can't play short or third is not particulary super.  I think he's a second baseman that will likely be replaced by Westburg or Norby; maybe as soon as '23.  I wish that he'd been given more time at 2nd, and Stowers more time in RF, after they were promoted, but that ship has sailed.

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I like Vavra, but a super sub that can't play short or third is not particulary super.  I think he's a second baseman that will likely be replaced by Westburg or Norby; maybe as soon as '23.  I wish that he'd been given more time at 2nd, and Stowers more time in RF, after they were promoted, but that ship has sailed.

Yep...  This is where I'm at too.  I'm not really sure where Vavra fits on this team.  

[Just Regular]

21 minutes ago, George Zuverink said:

This thread seemed like a good place to ask a question I’ve been pondering. Back in the day when The Oriole Way meant something other than Tanking for 1-1, I really liked the Singleton/Lowenstein  pairing in LF. Looking at the assets we have in the system now and the vastly different LF dimensions and geometry, what pairing would best replicate that Magic?

Roenicke/Lowenstein, right?

I know some feel a Phillips-McKenna platoon could replace most of Mullins performance.

LF/RF - all of Santander, Hays, Stowers look balanced enough to hold everyday jobs if they are the okay versions of themselves, and even there one is just keeping a seat warm for Cowser to join Gunnar-Mullins-Mountcastle at the 600 PA level.

[survivedc]

31 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I like Vavra, but a super sub that can't play short or third is not particulary super.  I think he's a second baseman that will likely be replaced by Westburg or Norby; maybe as soon as '23.  I wish that he'd been given more time at 2nd, and Stowers more time in RF, after they were promoted, but that ship has sailed.

It depends on the rest of your team makeup to me. If the other infielders are Mateo, Henderson and Urias then you’ve got 3 guys that can play short and 2 that can play 3rd. Vavra spells at 2B, 1B, LF and DH. Some value in that if he can progress as a hitter.

[Gentile4]

I don't understand what anyone sees in Phillips. I like McKenna as a 4th/5th outfielder who gets maybe 150 PA's for the season, but that's it. Which offensive Mullins is the real Cedric? Regardless, it's going to be tough to upgrade his overall performance as the everyday centerfielder. Santander made a case to be the primary DH, and Hays' numbers indicate he had an okay season. I agree, Stowers has to be an everyday player, and it appears he's better and more comfortable in right. We're talking about 13 position players, two of whom will be catchers. Vavra has to be on the team, and since Urias can also play short, Vavra being limited to 2B/OF isn't that much of a deterrent given his on base skills. 

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Why do you think Stowers is a better RF than Santander?

Actually, I think they are very similar out fielders, but Stowers is faster (43rd percentile to Santander's 30th percentile) and three years younger with a lot less experience in a major league right field so there's a better chance he improves more than Santander. 

They both were quite terrible in LF so RF should be there primary position. 

[Tony-OH]

Vavra fror me is one of those tweener prospects that could squeeze out a role as a 4th/5th outfielder who can play 2B when needed, or a 2nd division second baseman.

The problem with Vavra is most of his value is tied up on his on base/hit tool. He has below average pop but probably more disappointing is that he was only a 45th percental runner at 24-years old (35th percentile for his age). So with below average power, below average speed, and below average defense everywhere but probably left field, where does he fit in on a good team? 

The biggest surprise defensively is that he actually turned the DP pretty well overall at second base despite the limited arm strength. Still there is a some limited range issues but overall he's probably playable at 2B. The question is, will he hit enough and get to enough extra base hits to be able to stick as a regular there even if ultimately he's going to be a little below average overall at 2B?

Could the Orioles start 2023 with at 2B, potentially, but I'd imagine that Westburg or Ortiz would provide better value overall even if Waltimore cuts down on some of their overall pop at right-handed hitters.

He's a better bench guy than Nevin or Aguilar ever would be, and he's not the worse guy to have on the bench for late inning PH against right handed relief pitching. 

[btdart20]

Jeff McNeil Swings Softly, But Carries a Big Stick | FanGraphs Baseball

In today's game of metrics, Jeff McNeil bucks the trends and introduces new (and reintroduces old) variables that matter. 

I put this here because reading through the article made me think of Vavra's "lack of power".  It makes me if Vavra's skill set/approach to hitting is along the McNeil path.  One concern mentioned is how the lack of power can lead to less walks (challenging more in the strike zone).  If Vavra's bat-to-ball skills is McNeil-like (quality contact even without the hard hit), then he can still maintain his OBP.

As another aside:  Driveline has been digging into this type of data recently.  They originally made their name around increasing bat speed/exit velo and optimizing launch angle that statistically has led to increased power numbers (xHR, ISO...) for hitters (and MPH and spin rates for pitchers).  Now they are adding a focus on a different 'type' of hitter (the Gwynn/Boggs vs. the Bonds/McGwire).  I have to think analytics-driven orgs are looking at that in our "hitting labs". 

[NedFromYork]

I think the opening day infield is Gunnar at 3B, Mateo at SS, and Urias at 2B.  With a 1B of course. Gunnar is 3B/SS, Mateo SS, Urias 2B/3B, Vavra 2B/LF.  I really like Vavra and he could definitely be the opening day 2B.  I think Mateo goes when Ortiz is ready.  And Urias or Vavra when Westburg is.

I think the bat will be an OF/DH or DH/1B type as someone needs to be able to give Mountcastlw some days off.

Edited October 7, 2022 by NedFromYork

[sportsfan8703]

I see Hays and Stowers being 3.5 type OF next year, with McKenna being the 5th OF. Both Hays and Stowers will get a lot of playing time, but won’t play everyday. Quite Frankly Hays needs to produce because Cowser is really close and his OBP tool is exactly more of what we need. 
 

I have hope for Vavra. I remember hearing a radio interview mid season where he had been recently(within the last year) diagnosed with an immune system disorder that was causing fatigue and could’ve led to some of the nagging injuries he’s had.  Hopefully with that in check, he’ll be able to bulk up a little because he is more of a LF/2B than a CF/everyday 2B option. At least on this team. I don’t think Vavra makes the team on OD, but I want that dude batting 1st in AAA and trying to develop his On Base skills more. I think there is still some development to happen with him. He’s not fully baked. 

[Frobby]

I don’t think Vavra needs to develop his on base skills more.  He just needs to show a little more power.   Last year he had a .132 ISO in the minors but only .079 in the majors.   

[orioles22]

I don't expect Stowers to ever have a big role.

I could see Vavra as a utility guy who can hit and play several positions, even though none of them especially well.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

I don't expect Stowers to ever have a big role.

I could see Vavra as a utility guy who can hit and play several positions, even though none of them especially well.

Why so down on Stowers?  He had an excellent year in AAA and a decent debut in the majors.   I’m optimistic he can be a solid contributor.