Is Jose Abreu a worthy target?

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I just don't think a full time DH fits with this team since Adley needs about 150 ABs when he's not catching. Abreu/Bell/Peterson only make sense if Mountcastle is traded.

 

Depends on if Elias thinks the player he signs to DH will out hit Adley and Stowers who he would take at bats from.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Depends on if Elias thinks the player he signs to DH will out hit Adley and Stowers who he would take at bats from.

Adley is an excellent hitter. Signing someone to take ABs from him would not be a good use of resources.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Adley is an excellent hitter. Signing someone to take ABs from him would not be a good use of resources.

Unless Elias analysis says that the player that is signed is a better hitter than Adley.  The objective of the offense is to score as many runs as possible.  If the analysis shows that the FA is likely to hit better than Adley at DH then the FA should get the  at bats over Adley.  Adley can get his at bats at C.

If during the season Adley hits better than the FA then the FA can sit and Adley can get those DH at bats.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Unless Elias analysis says that the player that is signed is a better hitter than Adley.  The objective of the offense is to score as many runs as possible.  If the analysis shows that the FA is likely to hit better than Adley at DH then the FA should get the  at bats over Adley.  Adley can get his at bats at C.

If during the season Adley hits better than the FA then the FA can sit and Adley can get those DH at bats.

So Adley should just catch 150 games?

[btdart20]

Regardless of who they bring in, it’s as much about depth as raising the bar.

[Aristotelian]

38 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Unless Elias analysis says that the player that is signed is a better hitter than Adley.  The objective of the offense is to score as many runs as possible.  If the analysis shows that the FA is likely to hit better than Adley at DH then the FA should get the  at bats over Adley.  Adley can get his at bats at C.

If during the season Adley hits better than the FA then the FA can sit and Adley can get those DH at bats.

Adley had 128 OPS+ as a rookie. We should be taking advantage of that every day. If we want to upgrade the lineup, do it at another position.

[Frobby]

Not really worried about Adley getting his at bats.  He’ll get 475-500 PA as a catcher.   They’ll find other at bats for him even if they have a good DH.  If he gets a few more pure off-days next year, that’s fine too.

[Frobby]

On 10/21/2022 at 4:16 AM, Frobby said:

 

In terms of what we’d have to pay him, his last contract at age 33-35 was 3/$50.   I see him as somewhat comparable to Nelson Cruz in 2019, who at age 38, having more than fulfilled his 4/$56 mm contract with Seattle, had to settle for a one-year deal at $14 mm with a $12 mm team option. Abreu is two years younger than Cruz was then, but Cruz hadn’t had a big power drop off like Abreu did this year. I’d say 2/$35 mm definitely gets it done, probably something less than that.  Worth doing?

Well, so much for my FA salary forecasts, as Abreu got 3/$58.5 mm.  In fairness to me, Ben Clemens had him at 2/$36 mm, Fangraphs median crowdsource was 2/$32 mm, and MLBTR had him at 2/$40 mm.

[jamalshw]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, so much for my FA salary forecasts, as Abreu got 3/$58.5 mm.  In fairness to me, Ben Clemens had him at 2/$36 mm, Fangraphs median crowdsource was 2/$32 mm, and MLBTR had him at 2/$40 mm.

I would have done it at your projection or really any of the projections (though MLBTR's number was starting to push it). I would have loved to see him in an Orioles uniform, but not at that price. 

[tabletop]

Just now, jamalshw said:

I would have done it at your projection or really any of the projections (though MLBTR's number was starting to push it). I would have loved to see him in an Orioles uniform, but not at that price. 

Not paying what it takes for a guy who just hit .304 is how you end up with a guy whose OBP was .305 as your everyday 1B.

[owknows]

2 minutes ago, tabletop said:

Not paying what it takes for a guy who just hit .304 is how you end up with a guy whose OBP was .305 as your everyday 1B.

Is it?

I thought it was squandering draft picks and having a poor farm system that did that.

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Well, so much for my FA salary forecasts, as Abreu got 3/$58.5 mm.  In fairness to me, Ben Clemens had him at 2/$36 mm, Fangraphs median crowdsource was 2/$32 mm, and MLBTR had him at 2/$40 mm.

Yeah, I liked Abreu as a possibility, but not at that contract.  

[btdart20]

$20m AAV is too rich for our budget.  But that's what FA spending looks like... Wonder if that has any impact (positive/negative) on Houston's push to resign Verlander...

Only one 1B (Bell) left that is a real upgrade over Mountcastle.  But it wouldn't shock me if Elias is betting on a Mounty bounce.

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

$20m AAV is too rich for our budget.  But that's what FA spending looks like... Wonder if that has any impact (positive/negative) on Houston's push to resign Verlander...

Only one 1B (Bell) left that is a real upgrade over Mountcastle.  But it wouldn't shock me if Elias is betting on a Mounty bounce.

Sounds like HOU isn’t interested in Verlander at the 3/40 being floated.  Crazy enough, they don’t really need him.  LA is looking like Verlander’s home next year.  

[Pat Kelly]

Mike Elias putting together his “wow” offers.