What Free Agent would you sign?

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, it’s hard to do it successfully anyway, at any pick and in any round. It’s  a complete crapshoot.  

I don’t care how much money you have, it’s still hard but you can always set yourself up to get guys you like who have fallen.  Keep giving yourself chances.

You are basically saying the only guys who are worth doing this for or will be successful are ones who get a big deal. I’m guessing that’s completely false.

You say that all the time.

It's not accurate, it's not even close to accurate.

If it was a complete crapshoot you could have KOKI the mime making your picks and you'd do just as well as anyone else.

It's more like playing poker, some luck, some skill and if you use marked cards your odds are better but you can still lose.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You say that all the time.

It's not accurate, it's not even close to accurate.

If it was a complete crapshoot you could have KOKI the mime making your picks and you'd do just as well as anyone else.

It's more like playing poker, some luck, some skill and if you use marked cards your odds are better but you can still lose.

Prove it to me.  Prove that guys who get higher overslots are more successful than regular overslots.  Show me the evidence.

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Prove it to me.  Prove that guys who get higher overslots are more successful than regular overslots.  Show me the evidence.

I never said it did.

So no.

 

[NedFromYork]

Verlander 2-3 years and Abreu 2 years, a backup catcher, and  maybe a $2M bullpen arm.  I'm keeping all our young guys and guys in the minors and signing two elite players at high AAV and limited years for each window and trading guys when they become expensive and replacing them with a strong farm.  I want to be good to very good for a long time with something to play for most years.  Maybe we don't win World Series, but we don't get in to a position to have ro rebuild all the time.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, they could have.

Would they have?

No idea.

Doesn't change the fact that they couldn't have made a Gunnar style pick in the second round without seriously impacting the rest of their draft.

Dodgers pick in the last 5 picks just about every year and still have a top farm system.  Not having a top 10 pick is not an excuse for having a bad draft.

[wildcard]

SP Clevinger 2/30m with an option for a 3rd season

DH Abreu  1/10m   with an option on a 2nd season

A better back up catcher.

Go win the division.

[Can_of_corn]

50 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Dodgers pick in the last 5 picks just about every year and still have a top farm system.  Not having a top 10 pick is not an excuse for having a bad draft.

I agree?

Not sure what that has to do with the relative value of fifth round picks.

[ChosenOne21]

Why does everyone think Abreu is signing for 1-2 years? He just put up a 4 WAR season

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Why does everyone think Abreu is signing for 1-2 years? He just put up a 4 WAR season

Good point.   His homers go from 30 to 15.  His RBI go for 117 to 75 and his WAR goes for 2.6 to 3.9 because he increased his averages.

I guess at 36 I think he is showing some decline and a longer than one year with an option contract has a lot of risk to it.   

But your point is valid.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Why does everyone think Abreu is signing for 1-2 years? He just put up a 4 WAR season

Because he’s going to be 36.   It’s possible someone gives him three years, but we’ll see.   

[wildcard]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Because he’s going to be 36.   It’s possible someone gives him three years, but we’ll see.   

36, 37 and 38 just seems pretty risky.

[LookinUp]

1. Sign one FA pitcher not named Verlander or DeGrom. Don't pick up Lyles' option. 

2. Sign Abreu

3. Sign Backup Catcher

4. I agree with Nimmo too, but think it's highly unlikely as he'll be overpaid. 

5. Trade for another starting pitcher.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

36, 37 and 38 just seems pretty risky.

The two players I can think of who were somewhat  analogous were Nelson Cruz and David Ortiz.  Cruz got a four year deal that went through his age 37 season, but even though that contract was extremely successful, never got another contract that guaranteed multiple years.   Instead he got a one-year contract with a team option that was exercised, then two one-year contracts.   Ortiz at 36, after a .953 OPS season, still settled on a one-year deal.  Then, after a 1.026 OPS season, the Sox gave him a two-year deal.  When that was up, he was given a one-year deal with options.   

Based on those players, I don’t see Abreu getting a three year deal through age 38.   But like I said, you never know.  
 

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The two players I can think of who were somewhat  analogous were Nelson Cruz and David Ortiz.  Cruz got a four year deal that went through his age 37 season, but even though that contract was extremely successful, never got another contract that guaranteed multiple years.   Instead he got a one-year contract with a team option that was exercised, then two one-year contracts.   Ortiz at 36, after a .953 OPS season, still settled on a one-year deal.  Then, after a 1.026 OPS season, the Sox gave him a two-year deal.  When that was up, he was given a one-year deal with options.   

Based on those players, I don’t see Abreu getting a three year deal through age 38.   But like I said, you never know.  
 

Then you have Chris Davis who blow up at  31.

Edited October 24, 2022 by wildcard

[wildcard]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The two players I can think of who were somewhat  analogous were Nelson Cruz and David Ortiz.  Cruz got a four year deal that went through his age 37 season, but even though that contract was extremely successful, never got another contract that guaranteed multiple years.   Instead he got a one-year contract with a team option that was exercised, then two one-year contracts.   Ortiz at 36, after a .953 OPS season, still settled on a one-year deal.  Then, after a 1.026 OPS season, the Sox gave him a two-year deal.  When that was up, he was given a one-year deal with options.   

Based on those players, I don’t see Abreu getting a three year deal through age 38.   But like I said, you never know.  
 

If you are suggesting that Abreu knows how to beat a drug test then why did he drop from 30 homers to 15?