2022 #5 Prospect Coby Mayo - 3B

[Aristotelian]

5 hours ago, btdart20 said:

I'm saying if they have concerns about a guy sticking at a position, then there's a case to be made for finding a new home.   We have zero 1B prospects and a ton of hitting depth at other positions (usually at different levels in the org).  And yet we don't give the guys with some fielding question marks (thinking Norby, Mayo) or positions of extreme depth (like a Westburg, Stowers, Kjerstad) any type of game reps at a position of need.  Then we tried to cram a Gunnar at 2B (a position of need at the MLB level) because we're trying to replace an empty bat in Baltimore (and yes I recognize that I said he's athletic and can play anywhere, but "Surprise, you're starting your MLB career at a position you've never played in your life" isn't the right way to do anything).  

It seems to be a maximizing value type of decision.  3B is more important/difficult defensively to play.  A power hitting 3B is more valuable than that same hitter at 1B.  Having a 3B split his time to play some 1B (especially if there are already industry concerns about him sticking at 3B) will underscore the concern and devalue the prospect by the position they play.  That's the concern from a player/org/market value perspective.  If a team isn't sure if Westburg can stick at SS, then playing him at 1B really hinders his trade value.  Maybe even having a non-1B playing 1B would add "errors not saved" to other prospects.  

But there has to come a time where the roster construction/projections have to consider "who fits where" and try to see if they can play those positions.  I'm not saying now is the time to see what Mayo has at 1B.  But I'd rather not see the fire drill of trying Gunnar at 2B happen when say Mountcastle goes down with a hammy.  And I'm not even saying Mayo needs to move like Mountcastle did back in the day.  He might be a legitimate 3B.  It just feels like 1B is a position that we've neglected on the altar of maximizing market value.

I think it's pretty easy to transition from 3B to 1B. Basically it's the same position except you don't have to make the throw. Arguably he will be a better 1B if he gets experience playing 3B. If you want to read tea leaves, him staying at 3B could be a sign that they see him as a tradable asset.

[Tony-OH]

33 minutes ago, seak05 said:

I read some stuff recently that he really struggles with balls lower in the zone. Is that something you’ve seen? Or is it a case of a national person not really seeing him 

I didn't notice that, but unless something is pretty obvious or I see the same thing over and over, I may not notice that. 

[btdart20]

8 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I think it's pretty easy to transition from 3B to 1B. Basically it's the same position except you don't have to make the throw. Arguably he will be a better 1B if he gets experience playing 3B. If you want to read tea leaves, him staying at 3B could be a sign that they see him as a tradable asset.

I tend to agree, especially for someone moving from another IF position and who is otherwise coordinated with his feet/glove.  It does take practice/repetitions though.  Maybe that's happening in private (we know it's not in games).  Maybe it's not the right time but it's on their roadmap.  But there has to be a time for it at some point, right?  Maybe they're signing an FA 1B and aren't worrying about 1B development.  Maybe their metrics say any goon can play 1B (doubt they think this). 

But it really feels like this decision isn't being made at a player development level (i.e. coaches addressing gaps in the positions for the next level), but at an org building level (i.e. the FO not giving the green light to cross-train). 

I'll put my tinfoil hat away now and claim my their/there/they're grammar points...

[MarCakes21]

15 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think you can totally discount him play at 3B in the major leagues. He's not awful there, especially for a big guy he moves ok, but those feet still don't move great and while he can throw accurately and strong on the run, he's a step slow coming in and I don't that will improve. 

Is there a ML comp?

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

I heard from a reliable source (and I had two different reliable sources tell me that Jackson Holliday was the #1 pick well before the pick was announced) that Mayo dealt with a nagging injury towards the middle of the season. Which makes sense, because he started out the season pretty hot, sat out for a few weeks, and then came back and wasn't the same.

Mayo didn't play any games from July 2nd through July 28th. He hit 14 of his 19 home runs before July 2nd. I personally think the injury affected him and accounted for some (or most) of the regression in his K's and OPS this season.

I confess I’d forgotten about his injury.  He was removed from the July 2 game with reported back spasms, so that was the nature of his injury.  Yes, that could have affected him.   It’s really hard to say though.  He had a higher OPS in August, shortly after returning from injury, than he did in September.  He also had a poor May (.690 OPS), which was before the injury.   So, I really can’t say if the injury affected him, and if so, how much.  In any event, it was a solid season for a 20-year old splitting his time between high A and AA.

[Aristotelian]

27 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Is there a ML comp?

I've seen some Troy Glaus comps for his ceiling. Maybe Mark Reynolds for floor?

[Number5]

25 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I've seen some Troy Glaus comps for his ceiling. Maybe Mark Reynolds for floor?

That's a very high floor, imo.  13 years in MLB, 298HR, .780 OPS.  I don't think that would be considered the worst he could do.  Seems to  me his floor is lower than that.  Yeah, we'd all like to see him have success, but I'm not sure Reynolds as a floor is realistic.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Number5 said:

That's a very high floor, imo.  13 years in MLB, 298HR, .780 OPS.  I don't think that would be considered the worst he could do.  Seems to  me his floor is lower than that.  Yeah, we'd all like to see him have success, but I'm not sure Reynolds as a floor is realistic.

Right, a 13 year career in the majors isn't a floor.

Not making the majors is a floor.

[LookinUp]

16 hours ago, MCO'sFan said:

Is there any sense of how he is viewed by other organizations? He is not a consensus Top 100 guy. Tony clearly like him but do other orgs see him that way or not. I wonder if the O's would be trading low right now.

It's not other orgs, but Fangraphs has his FV at 50. I also don't know how often these are updated. For comparison...

Henderson: 65
Rodriguez: 60
Hall: 55
Holliday: 55
Mayo: 50
Ortiz: 50
Cowser: 50
Westburg: 45
Kjerstad: 45
Norby: 40+
Basallo: N/A

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, Number5 said:

That's a very high floor, imo.  13 years in MLB, 298HR, .780 OPS.  I don't think that would be considered the worst he could do.  Seems to  me his floor is lower than that.  Yeah, we'd all like to see him have success, but I'm not sure Reynolds as a floor is realistic.

Fair enough, 298 HR is nothing to sneeze at. I had no idea Reynolds hit that many bombs. I was really just thinking of the Oriole version of him. Still, in that 13 year career with almost 300 bombs he put up only 7 WAR...

[Fiver6565]

1 hour ago, MarCakes21 said:

Is there a ML comp?

What about Alec Bohm of the Phillies as a comp?  BR has Bohm at 6-5, 218, and has Mayo at 6-5, 215.  At the very least, similar body types.  Had this thought watching Bohm in the playoffs this year.  I've never seen Mayo play so not sure if the comp works from a play/hitting style standpoint.

[Brooks The Great]

4 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

What about Alec Bohm of the Phillies as a comp?  BR has Bohm at 6-5, 218, and has Mayo at 6-5, 215.  At the very least, similar body types.  Had this thought watching Bohm in the playoffs this year.  I've never seen Mayo play so not sure if the comp works from a play/hitting style standpoint.

Bohm came up through the minors as a hit-tool-over-power guy, and still is in the majors even though he had his struggles early on (in 2021 especially, he didn't hit for average OR power). Mayo is more of a power-over-hit-tool guy, even though there's a possibility (perhaps unlikely, but still a possible outcome) that he can bring both the hit tool and power tool to the table in the majors. But the power is going to be his calling card.

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Right, a 13 year career in the majors isn't a floor.

Not making the majors is a floor.

The terms ceiling and floor always seem misleading to me.  Pretty much every player has a floor of not making the majors, or being a zero impact player, until they’re in the majors and they don’t.   Mark Reynolds is probably a higher than median outcome for Mayo, even though that might be seen as disappointing by some.  

[Can_of_corn]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The terms ceiling and floor always seem misleading to me.  Pretty much every player has a floor of not making the majors, or being a zero impact player, until they’re in the majors and they don’t.   Mark Reynolds is probably a higher than median outcome for Mayo, even though that might be seen as disappointing by some.  

Folks in general have a very skewed sense of how easy this all is.

For instance WC saying a recent draft pick had an excellent shot.

Most guys fail.

Top 50 guys fail.

It's unrealistic to think that the floor comp for Mayo is a guy with a 13 year career in the majors.

 

[Tony-OH]

I don't typically do floors because they are tricky. A floor is tough until a guy gets to AAA and then you can kind of say, he's at least this at the major league level or that his floor is a minor leaguer.

Mayo's floor is certainly a flame out before he reaches the majors, but barring injuries, I'd think that has about a 10% chance of happening. 

He's not a right-handed Billy Rowell. 

Maybe I'm too bullish on Mayo, but I love upside guys who perform above league average when significantly below the average age of the league.

I think some people want to grade a guy hard for not putting up amazing numbers despite the fact that he was one of, if not the youngest player in the league. I mean, what kind of numbers do you think mayo would have put up last year against college pitching? 

He probably would be coming into next year's draft as a top draft pick. He would be an easy 1st rounder with his skill set with comparisons to Kris Bryant and Troy Glaus.

I'm sticking to my guns on him being an impact guy at the major league level, but I do realize the floor on him is lower than say a Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz or Norby. 

He's a risk reward prospect and I'm still betting on him.