Orioles 2022 #16 Prospect Seth Johnson - RHP

[Tony-OH]

Seth Johnson
Throws: RHP
Age (as of Jun 30th): 24
2022 Level: A+

Pitches (current/future value)
Fastball: 50/55
Curveball: 40/45
Change: 30/40
Slider: 50/60
Command: 40/45

Most Likely Future Role: Reliever
Ceiling: #3 starter

What we know: Acquired as a key piece in a three-team Trey Mancini trade, this hard throwing righty was already on the Injured List after undergoing Tommy John surgery that will keep him out for most of next season as well.

The 6-1, 200 pound Johnson was drafted by Tampa in the 1^st round (40^th pick) of the 2019 draft after being converted to a pitcher in College due to his arm strength. Johnson was raw, but had a fastball that touched 99-100 MPH in college. Last year before the injury, Johnson sat 94-96 while touching 97. While he can get some swings and misses up in the zone, his fastball is pretty true and got surprisingly barreled up by High-A hitters too often when he didn't get it into the upper portion of the zone. He’s one of those pitchers that get a lot of swing and miss (13.7% K rate and 17.7 Swinging strike %) while also getting barreled up too often (31% LD rate).

His slider, which can vary in speeds from 80-85, is his best pitch and his strikeout pitch. He uses it well low and away, but because of the vertical movement, he can use low in the zone pretty much anywhere across the zone and against left-handers. His curveball has similar shape than his slider, but comes in at 72-75 MPH but was definitely his 3^rd pitch.

 

While he has thrown a change in the past, he didn’t throw many in his seven starts, not even to lefties. When he needed an offspeed pitch to lefties his pitch was the down and in slider to them. While his two offspeed pitches play, it would be nice to see him add a usable changeup to help him defend himself better against lefties who slashed .303/.395/.697/1.092 off him.

While some publications had Johnson as the 4th or 6th best Tampa prospect and called him a mid-rotation prospect, there are concerns about his fastball getting barreled too often, lack of changeup, and the fact he will be 24 years old by the time he pitches again and has just 27 innings above A ball.

What we don’t know: What will he look like when he returns from TJ surgery? When he comes back, will the team continue to let him start or will they try to move him to the pen to advance his development to the big leagues by moving him to the pen? If he starts, can he find a useable changeup that can help him defend against lefties?

What we think: He was already a fairly raw pitcher when he got hurt so he’s lost more development time so when he comes back, it will be interesting to see how the Orioles continue to develop him. Johnson has a good arm, but his fastball reminds me of Kyle Bradish a bit without a ton of life nor without a lot of spin. His slider can be a special pitch at times and can miss bats, but he'll need to command it better an find more consistency.

In his seven starts this spring, Johnson looked a lot more like a future reliever than starter, but it’s hard to know what he will look like when he comes back. If his velocity returns, and he can develop a useable change, he does have a mid-rotation ceiling, but there’s a lot of ifs in there to make that ceiling.

[wildcard]

With Holt helping with Johnson's development I would not bet against him being a starter.

Edited November 21, 2022 by wildcard

[btdart20]

Thanks for the write up.  Those two pitches do sound like a RP.  I’m hoping with wildcard he can develop a bit more so he can stick as a SP.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

With Holt helping with Johnson's development I would not bet against him being a starter.

As an Orioles fan, I'm with you. 

Honestly, we don't always know what a guy with look like after TJ so who knows. Maybe they work with him during his recovery with a good change up grip. 

I wish the fastball wasn't as true, and that does give him a fairly low floor, but he's a nice arm to work with and I think that's what Elias was going for in his return for Mancini.

[Chaka Garcia]

I am little surprised he wasn’t ranked lower, he will be 24 before he throws a pitch again or may never recover. At 24, going from A ball and then working up - seems like a long journey.

[CharmCityHokie]

2 hours ago, Chaka Garcia said:

I am little surprised he wasn’t ranked lower, he will be 24 before he throws a pitch again or may never recover. At 24, going from A ball and then working up - seems like a long journey.

Jake deGrom didn't make it to A ball until he was 24 due to Tommy John surgery (and having not became a pitcher until he was a junior in college) and didn't make the Majors until age 26, so given the similarities in history I have decided that we definitely have the next deGrom on our hands .

Edited November 21, 2022 by CharmCityHokie

[oriole]

Seems like more trouble than he’s worth. It’s funny that Elias can justify giving Johnson a roster spot a year before he is even able to get into a minor league game but he didn’t protect Pop. I get that Johnson has a higher ceiling but Pop seemed more of a sure thing in a shorter time frame. Oh well…doesn’t matter now. Hopefully he can develop that change and be a rotation option 

[Frobby]

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/timing-of-trade-a-little-weird-for-seth-johnson

[banks703]

Has anyone heard anything about Seth's recovery? We're coming up on five months since the surgical procedure and if my timeline is right, he should begin light throwing again in the next couple of weeks. 

 

 

 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Has anyone heard anything about Seth's recovery? We're coming up on five months since the surgical procedure and if my timeline is right, he should begin light throwing again in the next couple of weeks. 

 

 

 

Did you read the article in the post previous to yours?

[banks703]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Did you read the article in the post previous to yours?

I did. Thanks for sharing. 

 

 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, banks703 said:

Has anyone heard anything about Seth's recovery? We're coming up on five months since the surgical procedure and if my timeline is right, he should begin light throwing again in the next couple of weeks. 

 

 

 

No.  I saw that Zach Peek, who had his surgery the same day as Johnson with the same doctor, is going some light tossing.   Hopefully Johnson is too, but I haven’t heard anything.  

[RZNJ]

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No.  I saw that Zach Peek, who had his surgery the same day as Johnson with the same doctor, is going some light tossing.   Hopefully Johnson is too, but I haven’t heard anything.  

"I’m hoping to be able to pitch by next August, maybe in some Complex League games,” he said. “I start my throwing program in mid-January, so once that starts I’ll probably have a better idea. But I’m hoping to be able to throw the last couple weeks of the summer next year."

[Explosivo]

I think Holt’s number one priority will be working on his change up. The slider is special already and with more time throwing he will find the command for it as well. He needs that change up though. Hopefully when Wacha joins the club he can impart his knowledge of how to throw a masterful change up.

[owknows]

15 minutes ago, Explosivo said:

I think Holt’s number one priority will be working on his change up.

I don't think Holt's fastball is quick enough to make his change up worth throwing.