Orioles sign Adam Frazier

[foxfield]

Ouch

[Slight Upward Arc]

That Szymborski piece is spot on. 

Those of us who have been less patient have been told the past couple years to wait til the kids arrive, it’s going to turn around. 

The kids are here, with more knocking down the door. And now we have to watch Adam Frazier instead. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by Slight Upward Arc

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

"Build on that 83-win season, push forward, and reignite the city’s fading love affair with the orange-and-black."

I think that ship has probably already sailed for next year. The buzz created among the more casual crowd by last year's surprise turnaround and flirtation with a playoff spot seems to have been mostly squandered at this point if Twitter and the MASN comments section are anything to go by.

Replacing Lyles and Odor with Lyles+5-10% and Odor+5-10% was pretty much the worst way to go if getting lapsed fans interested in the product again and subsequently putting butts in seats was the goal. 

[Sports Guy]

21 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Not surprisingly, his speed has fallen with this decline going from 58.2 percentile in 2020 to 36.3 percentile last year. He's 4.4 to 1B now which put him as a 30 runner.

He's always been a low EV guy who slaps the ball around the field but now he's slow on top of it. 

He can't hit lefties (.210/.286/.290/.576 in 155 PAs last year) so he's a platoon option at  best. 

So let's recap for those who think he just had a bad year and will rebound:

EV: 2nd percentile
Barrel %: 3rd percentile
Hard hit%: 2nd percentile
Speed: 30 runner with 36.6 percentile sprint speed
Outfield jump: -2.5 per/sec avg
Feet covered: 31.7 ft/sec (If qualified he would have ranked 90th best in baseball with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Yadiel Hernandez

Positives:
He does K much, plays a good defensive 2B

They paid $8 million to a slow, slap-hitting, platoon 2B who is 31 years old.

Meanwhile the Yankees added another TOR to their team. 

The Orioles have tread water at best this offseason while the rest of their competition in the AL East has gotten better. Even with trades I don't see how paying Frazier that kind of money makes any sense and probably now limits what contracts they can bring on.

I would have been fine with Westburg or Ortiz making major league minimum to start the year at 2b and used that money to go after pitching through trades. 

 

I’m going to go back to something I have discussed before.  The process matters.

I know some get all upset over this but the move you make when you make it matters.  I don’t care who else is traded. I don’t care if Frazier bucks this obvious poor trends and bounces back to have a good year.  Even if those things happen, it’s still a bad signing.

The facts that have been pointed out matter. So, the decision to make this move was done with these numbers known (and easy to find), our team situation known, our prospects known, our division known, the AL as a whole known And our budget limited and yet they still said, this is the proper move.

And I don’t want to hear that this is an ownership thing. John Angelos didn’t demand this signing. John Angelos didn’t say you need to block actual prospects. John Angelos didn’t say, you know guys, we really could use a left handed hitting second baseman.

This was Elias, his team and a bunch of computers trying to find a reason why he can bounce back. 

Yes, the process matters and that’s why this move will always be a poor one.

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m going to go back to something I have discussed before.  The process matters.

I know some get all upset over this but the move you make when you make it matters.  I don’t care who else is traded. I don’t care if Frazier bucks this obvious poor trends and bounces back to have a good year.  Even if those things happen, it’s still a bad signing.

The facts that have been pointed out matter. So, the decision to make this move was done with these numbers known (and easy to find), our team situation known, our prospects known, our division known, the AL as a whole known And our budget limited and yet they still said, this is the proper move.

And I don’t want to hear that this is an ownership thing. John Angelos didn’t demand this signing. John Angelos didn’t say you need to block actual prospects. John Angelos didn’t say, you know guys, we really could use a left handed hitting second baseman.

This was Elias, his team and a bunch of computers trying to find a reason why he can bounce back. 

Yes, the process matters and that’s why this move will always be a poor one.

I disagree with one point.  If Frazier bounces back Elias will be vindicated.  Its just that the odds of that happening seems long right now.

And as far as process goes I don't think there has ever been an O's GM that is more process oriented.   You and anyone else can disagree with the conclusions of the O's process but its pretty hard to deny that the O's analyze their moves to the nth degree.

Edited December 17, 2022 by wildcard

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I disagree with one point.  If Frazier bounces back Elias will be vindicated.  Its just that the odds of that happening seems long right now.

Why do the odds seem long?   I don’t think they’re that long.   It’s just that I question why we need him with all the other alternatives we have at 2B and OF.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I disagree with one point.  If Frazier bounces back Elias will be vindicated.  Its just that the odds of that happening seems long right now.

No I disagree. It means the result was fine but the signing itself is terrible. You just can’t justify it.

Historically, MIers tend to decline and fall off in their early 30s.  Perhaps it started early with him? 
 

There is no reason to expect a bounce back.  As Tony said, it’s all hope. Nothing else but that. 
 

Other reasons why this is a poor signing and why the process matters:

1) A “promise” that he can play everyday.  WTF??!?  Why would you even do that. There isn’t anyone on this team that he should get at bats over.

2) They were on him from the beginning?  Seriously?  This is a guy you talk to “when you get around to it”. You should prioritize actual good players.

3) Why sign him now? Are you really that worried that he’s gone?  The longer you wait, the cheaper he gets and if he does sign somewhere else, who gives a sh!t?  
 

We had this discussion about Odor last year. People said, he won’t take at bats from players. They will cut him. It’s worth the risk. None of that ever turned out to be true. Frazier is probably better than Odor but not tremendously so and he cost way more money. The Os will keep giving him chances because they don’t cut guys who are making good money.

 

[HakunaSakata]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

This thread has gotten so long that I’m not sure if Dan Szymborski’s column got posted anywhere in here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-makes-a-microscopic-ripple-by-signing-adam-frazier/

It’s full of good analysts and quotes.  Gist is, ZiPS thinks Frazier will come back a good ways, and is worth his contract, but it doesn’t make strategic sense because the O’s already have several alternatives that are just as good.  

“Now, this may sound odd considering how negative this analysis is, but there’s absolutely nothing wrong with the Frazier contract. A roughly league-average player for $8 million is a solid value for a team in need of those services. I’d certainly love to have him at this price if I were the White Sox, and think he’s a better option at second base than whatever bizarre chimera of forgettable players they go with there. My problem with this signing really doesn’t have much to do with Frazier himself but more to do with the Orioles, where they are in the rebuild, and what their needs are.

* * *

“There are near as many average-to-below-average second base options in Baltimore as joints to pick up a good pit beef with onions and horseradish (OK, a bit of hyperbole). The Orioles need many things — and many much bigger things — and Frazier’s skillset isn’t really one of them. And as someone who grew up in Baltimore, it pains me to see the Yankees pick up Carlos Rodón, a player who does represent a gigantic need for the Orioles and one of the magnitude that the team should be looking at. Urías will be needed (as of now) at third base, but I don’t think it’s obvious that Frazier is clearly better in 2023, even with a modest comeback, than Mateo, Westburg, or Vavra.”

* * *

“I’ve been saying for years that ‘now is not the time’ for the Orioles to make a big splash at bidding on top talent in free agency. But now is time. Build on that 83-win season, push forward, and reignite the city’s fading love affair with the orange-and-black.

“Instead, the Orioles have signed a second baseman they already have and an innings-eater (Kyle Gibson) who was so trusted by his previous employer that despite playing in October until Game 6 of the World Series, they only used him twice in the playoffs in short mopup stints. That’s not world domination; that’s pocketing a container of Tic-Tacs while the cashier at Royal Farms is busy ringing up the box of potato wedges you got at the counter.”

* * *

“In sum, this is the right player at the right price for precisely the wrong team. To paraphrase Nietzsche, if you stare at the Pirates, the Pirates stare back at you. Someone should inform the Orioles that they are actually wild-card contenders.”

 

Thanks for sharing. I know he's not really saying anything that hasn't been said before, but it's always nice to see the team get called out by the media for being cheap. Whenever I think of the Angelos family, I start singing the song "Save It for Later" by the English Beat in my head. The only difference is I sub in the word "Never" for Later.  

Save it for Never - Your marketing slogan/catchphrase for the 2023 Baltimore Orioles.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No I disagree. It means the result was fine but the signing itself is terrible. You just can’t justify it.

Historically, MIers tend to decline and fall off in their early 30s.  Perhaps it started early with him? 
 

There is no reason to expect a bounce back.  As Tony said, it’s all hope. Nothing else but that. 
 

Other reasons why this is a poor signing and why the process matters:

1) A “promise” that he can play everyday.  WTF??!?  Why would you even do that. There isn’t anyone on this team that he should get at bats over.

2) They were on him from the beginning?  Seriously?  This is a guy you talk to “when you get around to it”. You should prioritize actual good players.

3) Why sign him now? Are you really that worried that he’s gone?  The longer you wait, the cheaper he gets and if he does sign somewhere else, who gives a sh!t?  
 

We had this discussion about Odor last year. People said, he won’t take at bats from players. They will cut him. It’s worth the risk. None of that ever turned out to be true. Frazier is probably better than Odor but not tremendously so and he cost way more money. The Os will keep giving him chances because they don’t cut guys who are making good money.

 

I don't think there is a promise.  I think there is a opportunity to play every day.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They were on him from the beginning?  Seriously?  This is a guy you talk to “when you get around to it”. You should prioritize actual good players.

This is what really blows my mind about the Gibson and Frazier signings. They targeted mediocrity from the very beginning. It was their Plan A. WTF.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

This was Elias, his team and a bunch of computers trying to find a reason why he can bounce back. 

Yes, the process matters and that’s why this move will always be a poor one.

I get what you're saying but here's what MAYBE you're missing.    You don't know what Elias process is.   If he's just using the same information as us, then yeah, it seems like a bad move.   You say process matters.   I think process matters to Elias as well.   He's following a process.  His.   At least we think he is.    Do you think he's just taking a shot here?  

You just said he's basing this on a bunch of computers.   Isn't that process?

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I get what you're saying but here's what MAYBE you're missing.    You don't know what Elias process is.   If he's just using the same information as us, then yeah, it seems like a bad move.   You say process matters.   I think process matters to Elias as well.   He's following a process.  His.   At least we think he is.    Do you think he's just taking a shot here?  

You just said he's basing this on a bunch of computers.   Isn't that process?

He targeted a LH second baseman. That’s stupid. That by itself has no justification.

Sure, he has a process and if this is his process, it blows. He wants to be surrounded by a bunch of ivy leaguers and I question if any of them understand baseball stat analysis and if they have ever seen a baseball game.

I said this before. Elias is a masterful minor league GM…in that I mean, he knows how to build a system, develop, etc…he has yet to prove he’s a major league GM. He has yet to show us he knows what it takes to do the necessary moves to make the ML teams true contender. This was his first offseason to really show us that in terms of having a good team to build onto.  He has completely failed. 

[wildcard]

So what I am reading is that many fans and sports writers think Elias and Co are a bunch of fools.   I look at it another way.

I think most on the OH will think that the O's are Analytics oriented.   So lets say that Sig did his analysis and thinks he knows why Frazier had a 799 OPS in 2021 and a 612 OPS in 2022.  And Elias, Sig, Hyde and Fuller think they can fix him.

In that case his 305/368/411/779  may be able to be duplicated and is worth 8M.  It probably makes him a #2 hitter  hitting in front of run producers Adley, Gunnar, Santander etc.  

I think in general fans and media are too hung up on Frazier being a 2nd baseman.  I read he plays LF and RF well.  That conflicts with the idea that he is slow.  I don't know what to think about that.

But what are the odds that Hays come out of ST healthy.   I would put it at 50/50.   That's been his history.  He is 100% healthy and performing well about half the time.

In 2021 Frazier hit 317/378/412/790 vs righthanded pitching.  Hays career average vs righties is 252/306/421/727 vs right-handed pitching.   Hays career average vs lefty is 268/317/460/777.   Sounds like there might be a platoon there.

All this happening might not be likely but it might be more likely than thinking Elias and Co are fools. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by wildcard

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So lets say that Sig did his analysis and thinks he knows why Frazier had a 799 OPS in 2021 and a 612 OPS in 2022.

He had a massive BABIP outlier during the first half of 2021.

It was a fluke and it passed. That's it.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

He had a massive BABIP outlier during the first half of 2021.

It was a fluke and it passed. That's it.

Tell Sig.  You must be way ahead of him.