Mateo Trade Potential

[forphase1]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Ok. So if I understand you correctly, you think he’s in line for a major slide in his defensive capabilities?

A few things.  1) defensive metrics are not always stable.  As we all know, most of his WAR was based on his defense.  A slight decrease in his defense numbers could seriously impact his WAR numbers, even if his defensive capabilities does not suffer greatly 2) He has to be in the field to get defensive WAR.  Unless his hitting improves versus what it was around the end of the year he may not get nearly as much playing time.  If so then his WAR numbers are going to drop even if he's just as good when he's playing.  While I'm not sure he drops all the way to 0.8 WAR as predicted, I'm also not expecting him to hit the 3.5 WAR either.  

[forphase1]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

I don't think anyone here has said he's irreplaceable.

You are right.  They actually said he is 'too important to trade'.  Which to me means we can't adequately replace him so we have to keep him.  But yes, irreplaceable was not specifically used, my bad.  

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He has never been a good hitter in his long pro career. I don’t think it’s that hard to guess that he  will continue to be a bad hitter.

 

There are degrees of bad.  There’s a lot of room between .646 and good, and every little bit of improvement would help keep him in the lineup, just as every bit of degradation will push him towards the bench.  And the fact that a dispassionate algorhythm like ZiPS sees so much uncertainty in his performance is telling as well.

[Explosivo]

Players like Mateo will have their value risen via athletic ability due to the lack of shift, balls in contact (going first to third) and of course the all important stolen base. If he were to be traded, it's best to do so after these gifts can be shown and exploited by us. If the bat makes good, he sticks, if not, at worst he's a defensive replacement/pinch runner in late innings. His speed alone could win us some games if used wisely. He's a weapon. 

[Moose Milligan]

12 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

I think it's evolved into one side basically saying he's the second coming of Ozzie Smith and the other saying he shouldn't be an everyday player.  I think it's going to be interesting to see how Mateo's playing time shakes out this season. If things break right for the Orioles, he'll be a part time player. If things break wrong, he'll get 500+ ABs. 

On a side note, I still don't think anyone has come up with an solid explanation about why no other contending team is  selling out for defense at SS. If it's such a sound strategy then why is no one else doing it?  

Who's said he's the second coming of Ozzie Smith?  I only brought up Ozzie to highlight what a terrible hitter he was for his first 4 years, yet still provided value.  

As far a solid explanation about why no other contending team is selling out for defense at SS, again, the Orioles did it last year and were in contention into September.  Just because you can't identify other teams doing it doesn't mean it's not a viable option.

I'm too lazy to do it but I'm sure you could find playoff teams in the past 10-20 years that had a great glove man at SS who didn't hit a lot.  Rey Ordonez on the Mets comes to mind.  Andrelton Simmons fashioned himself into a guy who could hit a little with a hollow OBP skill set, his career OPS is under .700 (probably dragged down by his last couple of years). Jose Iglesias OPS'd .654 for Detroit in 2013.  

I don't think this argument "why is no one else doing it?" the flex you think it is.  It ignores, once again, that a player can contribute positively to a team and not hit particularly well.

[HakunaSakata]

56 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Who's said he's the second coming of Ozzie Smith?  I only brought up Ozzie to highlight what a terrible hitter he was for his first 4 years, yet still provided value.  

As far a solid explanation about why no other contending team is selling out for defense at SS, again, the Orioles did it last year and were in contention into September.  Just because you can't identify other teams doing it doesn't mean it's not a viable option.

I'm too lazy to do it but I'm sure you could find playoff teams in the past 10-20 years that had a great glove man at SS who didn't hit a lot.  Rey Ordonez on the Mets comes to mind.  Andrelton Simmons fashioned himself into a guy who could hit a little with a hollow OBP skill set, his career OPS is under .700 (probably dragged down by his last couple of years). Jose Iglesias OPS'd .654 for Detroit in 2013.  

I don't think this argument "why is no one else doing it?" the flex you think it is.  It ignores, once again, that a player can contribute positively to a team and not hit particularly well.

The Ozzie Smith comment was just a generalization. I used Simmons as an example in one of my other posts. Even he was a significantly more productive hitter than Mateo in his prime. And Ordonez sort of makes my point for me. He played 20 years ago! I think hitting has evolved in baseball to the point where teams don't have to sell out completely on offensive for good defensive anymore. It happens occasionally, but it never seems to be a team's Plan A.  Mateo might have been an everyday player in the late 80s or 90s, but he shouldn't be in this day and age. I'm not saying that he doesn't have value, I'm just saying that the more they play him, the more I think they're going to expose the holes in his game. Full disclosure, I also think last season was a career year for him an expect some regression across the board. 

[HakunaSakata]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think Ortiz has a plus glove but I doubt it’s as good as Mateo’s.  I saw some list of best defensive shortstops in the minors and Ortiz wasn’t in the top 5.   Now, those types of lists aren’t always reliable, but we just watched Mateo deservedly win a Fielding Bible Award, so I’m not expecting Ortiz to match that even if he’s very good.  

As to the bat, I think it’s 60/40, maybe even 70/30, that Ortiz is the better bat (especially in the longer term), but it’s by no means certain. ZiPS has Mateo at 83 OPS+ with an 80th percentile projection at 103 and a 20th percentile projection at 67; Ortiz is projected at 81 with a 102 80th and 65 20th.  I don’t fully agree with that projection (I’d have Ortiz higher) but it certainly illustrates that there’s no certainty that Ortiz will be the better hitter. Nor is there certainty that Mateo’s 2023 will closely mirror 2022; it could be significantly better or worse.  

Bottom line, I expect Mateo to go into 2023 as the starting SS, maybe starting slightly fewer games than he was starting for most of last year.  If he hits better than last year, he could end up playing even a bit more than before.  If he hits about the same, he’ll play a bit less than last year.  If he hits significantly worse, he could lose his starting job.  We’ll just have to see how it goes.  This is a guy who hit under .500 OPS for long stretches of last season, but also hit .850+ for a very significant stretch.  He ended up at .646, but he was rarely hitting in that range for any length of time.  So it’s really hard to guess how this season will go for him.  

 

If Ortiz continues to hit (big if), I think the best case scenario would be to have Henderson at SS and Ortiz at 3B 80% of the time by June. That's what I'm hoping for because I think they're going to need Ortiz's bat in the lineup. 

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Explosivo said:

Players like Mateo will have their value risen via athletic ability due to the lack of shift, balls in contact (going first to third) and of course the all important stolen base. If he were to be traded, it's best to do so after these gifts can be shown and exploited by us. If the bat makes good, he sticks, if not, at worst he's a defensive replacement/pinch runner in late innings. His speed alone could win us some games if used wisely. He's a weapon. 

We'll have to see how it plays out, but this is the first good argument I've seen someone make in favor of Mateo's value and the value of defensive minded players in general. 

[Es4M11]

55 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

If Ortiz continues to hit (big if), I think the best case scenario would be to have Henderson at SS and Ortiz at 3B 80% of the time by June. That's what I'm hoping for because I think they're going to need Ortiz's bat in the lineup. 

Why would Ortiz be better off at 3B and not SS? Ortiz is regarded by most as the best defensive SS in the system, and Henderson's best position is said to be 3B in most of the opinions I read. Why would this alignment be better than Henderson at 3B and Ortiz at SS?

Henderson is shaping up to be the next Machado, in the sense that his best position is most likely 3B and likely has the most value to the Orioles there, but people want to see him at SS. And would rather see him play there over other better SS. Always seemed a strange argument to me.

[sportsfan8703]

Why is Gunnar’s defense being underrated at SS?  We have Machado/Cal syndrome. It’s the same argument. Mateo is not JJ Hardy. The scouting reports don’t matter on Gunnar, he’s in the big leagues now. I saw a plus defender at SS. 
 

There’s some FOMO going around like we’re going to miss out on Mateo turning into some combo of Ozzie Smith and Alfonso Soriano. 

[sportsfan8703]

Personally, I like this lineup(when Mayo is ready),

SS - Gunnar

3B - Mayo

2B - Westburg/Ortiz

[RarityFlaherty]

41 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Personally, I like this lineup(when Mayo is ready),

SS - Gunnar

3B - Mayo

2B - Westburg/Ortiz

When Holliday is ready, I’d like to see Mayo in RF with an infield of 

3B- Gunnar

SS- Holliday 

2B- Ortiz 

1B- Westburg

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Who's said he's the second coming of Ozzie Smith?  I only brought up Ozzie to highlight what a terrible hitter he was for his first 4 years, yet still provided value.  

As far a solid explanation about why no other contending team is selling out for defense at SS, again, the Orioles did it last year and were in contention into September.  Just because you can't identify other teams doing it doesn't mean it's not a viable option.

I'm too lazy to do it but I'm sure you could find playoff teams in the past 10-20 years that had a great glove man at SS who didn't hit a lot.  Rey Ordonez on the Mets comes to mind.  Andrelton Simmons fashioned himself into a guy who could hit a little with a hollow OBP skill set, his career OPS is under .700 (probably dragged down by his last couple of years). Jose Iglesias OPS'd .654 for Detroit in 2013.  

I don't think this argument "why is no one else doing it?" the flex you think it is.  It ignores, once again, that a player can contribute positively to a team and not hit particularly well.

I get what you’re saying, but what I’m saying is why is Gunnar being dismissed at SS like he’s some plodder out there?  
 

I’d forget about Mateo’s WAR because every GM in baseball did. I’m pretty sure Elias shopped Mateo, and his WAR, for a SP via trade this offseason. Nobody bit. 
 

Last year’s team was the perfect team for Mateo. Stick him at SS all season and see what he can do. He showed us. It was fun. I like the guy. But we’re not last year’s team. The window is open. We can’t afford to just pen him in for 162. He has to hit to play. 

It’s hard to believe, but the perfect storm happened. We’re swimming in SS depth. We have better options than Mateo. Like the #1 prospect in baseball. 

[Frobby]

17 hours ago, Big Mac said:

The question may be more of if Ortiz can replace 0.8 WAR, which is what fangraphs projects for Mateo this season.  I agree 3.5 WAR is nothing to sneeze at and that would be a tall task for Ortiz in his rookie season, but my expectation is that Mateo does not sniff 3.5 (or 2.8fWAR) next season. 

You may well be right, but Mateo will get a healthy shot at showing he can replicate or improve on his 2022 season.  If it’s been a couple of months, he’s playing at an 0.8 fWAR level, and Ortiz is continuing to play well at Norfolk, we may well see a switch, or maybe Gunnar starts playing more SS and Westburg gets playing time.  Lots of ways this can go, but if Mateo is still in the organization at the end of ST, I expect he’ll still be the starting SS to begin the year.   

As an aside, Fangraphs doesn’t really project Mateo at 0.8 fWAR.   When ZiPS results for all 30 teams have been published, they’ll be combined with the Steamer projections that Fangraphs is showing as their projection right now.  ZiPS has Mateo at 1.7 fWAR, so the Fangraphs combined version will be in the 1.2-1.3 fWAR range.  It doesn’t really change your point much, I just wanted to point it out.  
 

[RZNJ]

One thing that's a big different this year is the increased competition.   Mateo knows that Henderson can play SS and he'll see plenty of Ortiz in ST.    Hopefully, Mateo doesn't need the extra motivation but it doesn't hurt that it's there.    Mateo needs to get back to the approach the coaches and he instituted at the end of June/beginning of July and see where it takes him.