Mateo Trade Potential

[forphase1]

11 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Lots of good points. But no one wants to commit an answer to the question: who will have a higher OPS in 2023, Mateo or Frazier?

If I had to put money on it, I'd say Frazier.  But I think it's likely the same as arguing who is the tallest midget, as I expect both of their OPS to be poor.  

[btdart20]

12 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Lots of good points. But no one wants to commit an answer to the question: who will have a higher OPS in 2023, Mateo or Frazier?

Frazier

[Aristotelian]

14 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Lots of good points. But no one wants to commit an answer to the question: who will have a higher OPS in 2023, Mateo or Frazier?

Frazier.

[AnythingO's]

I will go with Mateo. After being blocked by all stars he got his chance last year. His defense is highlight reel stuff. For 6-8 weeks last summer he resembled a MLB hitter before reverting to old habits. Old habits die hard but if you have spent your entire life to make it in MLB and you have a taste of success, I think he will do everything he can to stick, including going back to working with the hitting coaches.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I agree with a lot of the stuff you wrote but I'm just talking about Frazier, the player, not how it affects prospects, not that we could have had Harrison for less, or any of that stuff.   Just Frazier as the player.    I share the concern about his sprint speed but the bottom line is that he was a good player in 2021 and even that year had a good September which takes away from the "he started declining in 2021 and hasn't stopped since.

He’s a pro baseball player. He’s going to have stretches of being very good but for a year and a half stretch, he has largely been awful at the plate.

Since he is getting older, that is very relevant as he could just fall off a cliff at any moment.

He also could rebound and have a decent year as well.  I have personally never denied that as a possibility. Performance is down the list for me as to reasons why this was a dumb move.

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Lots of good points. But no one wants to commit an answer to the question: who will have a higher OPS in 2023, Mateo or Frazier?

If it wasn’t implicit in my previous response, I’ll say it expressly: I expect Frazier to have the higher OPS.   I’d put the odds at 75/25.   If Mateo outhits Frazier, I hope it’s because Mateo outperforms my expectations, rather than Frazier underperforming them. 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s a pro baseball player. He’s going to have stretches of being very good but for a year and a half stretch, he has largely been awful at the plate.

Since he is getting older, that is very relevant as he could just fall off a cliff at any moment.

He also could rebound and have a decent year as well.  I have personally never denied that as a possibility. Performance is down the list for me as to reasons why this was a dumb move.

I would have preferred Westburg or Ortiz in the 2B mix.   I don't agree with the Frazier move but I'm not going to call it dumb just because I don't understand it fully.    They may have reasons, other than service time, for having Westburg and Ortiz getting more time in AAA.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would have preferred Westburg or Ortiz in the 2B mix.   I don't agree with the Frazier move but I'm not going to call it dumb just because I don't understand it fully.    They may have reasons, other than service time, for having Westburg and Ortiz getting more time in AAA.

I don’t think it has anything to do with those guys as to why they have a Frazier here.

[Number5]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

But it becomes hard not to when he's 32

He won't be under contract with the Orioles when he turns 32.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Number5 said:

He won't be under contract with the Orioles when he turns 32.

Thank goodness there's some good news in regards to Frazier, then.

[orioles22]

I don't get why some seem to dislike Mateo. I could see the logic of a trade if Elias think he's peaked, but it seems he has made a lot of progress since he came to Baltimore. I never expected him to ever be in the conversation as one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. I also don't see him being a utility guy when you'd be putting an inferior defender at short, and who's to say he's an elite defender in the outfield.

[Aristotelian]

25 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

I don't get why some seem to dislike Mateo. I could see the logic of a trade if Elias think he's peaked, but it seems he has made a lot of progress since he came to Baltimore. I never expected him to ever be in the conversation as one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. I also don't see him being a utility guy when you'd be putting an inferior defender at short, and who's to say he's an elite defender in the outfield.

I don't think anyone dislikes him. Some question whether his outstanding defense makes up for his lack of hitting when we may have better options in the organization. 

[OriolesMagic83]

16 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well I’m glad we’ve identified Mateo as the lynchpin for the offense. 

When did 28 become the peak for a player? He’s a guy who’s got one year of ML experience under his belt, not an NFL running back. 

Or 27.

When Bill James published his first national "Baseball Abstract" in 1982, one of his major studies showed that, in general, position players peaked at age 27.

https://abc7ny.com/sports/mlb-hitters-who-are-missing-their-age-27-peak-season-in-2020/6259572/#:~:text=A player's peak age is around age 27%2C,now back to a more normal aging curve.

I hope that Mateo has several more productive, hitting years, but if it took until 27 for him to become a MLB regular, he's likely to have a short career.  Sure there are outliers like Mora, but not that many.

[Moose Milligan]

18 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Or 27.

When Bill James published his first national "Baseball Abstract" in 1982, one of his major studies showed that, in general, position players peaked at age 27.

https://abc7ny.com/sports/mlb-hitters-who-are-missing-their-age-27-peak-season-in-2020/6259572/#:~:text=A player's peak age is around age 27%2C,now back to a more normal aging curve.

I hope that Mateo has several more productive, hitting years, but if it took until 27 for him to become a MLB regular, he's likely to have a short career.  Sure there are outliers like Mora, but not that many.

Agree or disagree that training and conditioning and science for athletes has come a long way since 1982?

 

[OriolesMagic83]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Agree or disagree that training and conditioning and science for athletes has come a long way since 1982?

 

Agree of course, but steroids have been made illegal and are tested for also.