Mateo Trade Potential

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t judge Frazier solely on one bad season.  He’s been a decent hitter and a pretty good player for several years before last season.  Hopefully he bounces back.  If not, then his playing time should be cut sevetely.

I take your point about Urias.   The guy is terribly underrated.   He’s a bit injury prone but very good when healthy.  

If you think people are solely judging Frazier on one bad season, you have missed the entire argument against him.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He put up a 2.8 WAR by the better and more reliable WAR for offensive players.

He has some chance to OPS 700 but it’s not a strong one. If you set the o/u on his OPS at 685.5, it would be hard to take the over.

Jus for the future.  Which WAR do you want to use for pitchers and which one for hitters?

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

You're right, we shouldn't judge Frazier solely on one bad season.  But it becomes hard not to when he's 32, potentially gets in the way of playing our prospects and costs 8 million (when this franchise has been penny pinchers and 8 million could have been better spent elsewhere).

Add that all up, it's hard not to judge his one bad season.  

 

As I’ve said from literally the first post I made after the Frazier trade, my biggest problem is that I don’t see the strategic fit unless we were going to trade some MI talent for pitching (and I didn’t mean Darrel Hernaiz).   But that’s a separate issue from how I judge Frazier as a player.  That’s what I mean by saying I don’t judge Frazier solely on one bad season.  He’s capable of hitting much better.   

By the way, Frazier is not 32.   He just turned 31 last month.  
 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you think people are solely judging Frazier on one bad season, you have missed the entire argument against him.

I was reacting to TommyPickles asking who would have the higher OPS, Mateo or Frazier, and citing their respective OPS’s from 2022.   That’s what I meant by saying I don’t judge Frazier based on one bad season.  

[RZNJ]

Just now, Frobby said:

I was reacting to TommyPickles asking who would have the higher OPS, Mateo or Frazier, and citing their respective OPS’s from 2022.   That’s what I meant by saying I don’t judge Frazier based on one bad season.  

But a lot of people are judging Frazier on one bad season and turning that one bad season into 3 bad seasons, and totally discounting his 2021 season based on a poor July and August that year.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Jus for the future.  Which WAR do you want to use for pitchers and which one for hitters?

Hitters always fangraphs. Pitchers is more of a preference on how they calculate it but for hitters, they use OAA (better defensive stats) and they adjust for park factors better.

I personally usually only use FG but that’s because that’s where I visit the most.

BTw, whether it’s 2.8 or 3.4, he still had a good year and one you would take if he duplicated it.  Doesn’t mean I want him to be the starter but that’s still a good year, especially at his salary.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

But a lot of people are judging Frazier on one bad season and turning that one bad season into 3 bad seasons, and totally discounting his 2021 season based on a poor July and August that year.

Well it’s an 800 at bat stretch of a 610ish OpS. It’s a decline in sprint speed. It’s poor batting metrics overall (Although some of that has always been with him). It’s his age and the idea that MIers historically start to decline around his age.

And, more importantly, it’s the blocking in young hitters.

The 8M doesn’t matter except that it’s enough money to where they will continue to give him at bats.

And the icing on the cake is that Harrison just signed for a fraction less to do basically the same thing.

So yea, it’s a lot more than “1 bad year”. It’s basically every aspect of the decision even if he is good defensively.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Well it’s an 800 at bat stretch of a 610ish OpS. It’s a decline in sprint speed. It’s poor batting metrics overall (Although some of that has always been with him). It’s his age and the idea that MIers historically start to decline around his age.

And, more importantly, it’s the blocking in young hitters.

The 8M doesn’t matter except that it’s enough money to where they will continue to give him at bats.

And the icing on the cake is that Harrison just signed for a fraction less to do basically the same thing.

So yea, it’s a lot more than “1 bad year”. It’s basically every aspect of the decision even if he is good defensively.

I agree with a lot of the stuff you wrote but I'm just talking about Frazier, the player, not how it affects prospects, not that we could have had Harrison for less, or any of that stuff.   Just Frazier as the player.    I share the concern about his sprint speed but the bottom line is that he was a good player in 2021 and even that year had a good September which takes away from the "he started declining in 2021 and hasn't stopped since.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

But a lot of people are judging Frazier on one bad season and turning that one bad season into 3 bad seasons, and totally discounting his 2021 season based on a poor July and August that year.

Yes, I know.   Honestly, we don’t need to rehash the points for and against Frazier any more.  I think it’s probable that he’ll bounce back offensively to a significant degree, not necessarily all the way back to his career .728 OPS, but closer to that than to .612.   But it’s certainly possible he won’t.  I know I’ve cited his ZiPS projection numerous times, but since Szymborski published the whole range of them for Frazier I’ll summarize them here:

90% .791

80% .757

70% .731

60% .710

50% .689

40% .671

30% .653

20% .628

10% .591

So to sum that up, ZiPS thinks there’s a less than 20% chance that Frazier will do as badly as .612 OPS this year.  But, there’s a less than 30% chance that he’ll reach his .728 career average.   That makes sense to me.   

 

[Moose Milligan]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As I’ve said from literally the first post I made after the Frazier trade, my biggest problem is that I don’t see the strategic fit unless we were going to trade some MI talent for pitching (and I didn’t mean Darrel Hernaiz).   But that’s a separate issue from how I judge Frazier as a player.  That’s what I mean by saying I don’t judge Frazier solely on one bad season.  He’s capable of hitting much better.   

By the way, Frazier is not 32.   He just turned 31 last month.  
 

Well, Froberto Duran, I'm sorry I've not been able to chronicle all your posts on Frazier.  I'll do better from here on out.

Yes, he's not a strategic fit at all.  Even if he has a good season at the plate, he's not a strategic fit.  

In regards to 32, he sounds more unlikable that way.  

[Hank Scorpio]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well, Froberto Duran, I'm sorry I've not been able to chronicle all your posts on Frazier.  I'll do better from here on out.

Yes, he's not a strategic fit at all.  Even if he has a good season at the plate, he's not a strategic fit.  

In regards to 32, he sounds more unlikable that way.  

The goddamned plane has crashed into the mountain!!!!

[btdart20]

The fly in the soup for Mateo playing some CF is that his splits against LHP were not nearly as good as McKenna's in 2022.  

 

2 hours ago, TommyPickles said:

Who do you think will have a higher OPS in 2023, Mateo or Frazier?

In 2022 it was Mateo (.646) over Frazier (.612).

Both were really bad hitters last year. That’s why I’m confused when I see people saying Urias will be a utility guy.

He, Gunnar, and Mountcastle should be out there pretty much every day.

My $0.02...  I think Mountcastle, Frazier, Gunnar, and Urias get the bulk of the starts around the horn vs. RHP.  

Frazier - will be in vs. RHP.  As others have said, they aren't spending $8m to sit much.  Things can change in-season but he gets first crack at the bulk of the PAs.  I honestly don't think the decisions will be based on his OPS but on his OBP and low K% (and yes, there's more to offense than OBP - just saying how I think they value him).  

Mateo/Urias - offensively, Mateo doesn't add any value using standard R/L splits.  Nearly all of his comparative value is defensive.  Mateo does have better day games (.691 OPS) than night games (.621), the reverse is true for Urias (.563 day/.794 night) .  That could be part of the decision-making process...  Mateo also have a .763 OPS in late/close games too (vs. Urias at .614).  So, I could see Mateo used more off the bench (pinch runner/hitter/defensive) more that way too.

The biggest missing data point is how these guys do against certain types of pitchers?  I would think the team has access to that type of data for play/sit decisions.  For example, Mateo is a sucker for the hard low/away slider.  Maybe he sits vs. those guys more.  

And I'd still take a discount (less than market value) to trade Mateo, just to open a roster spot.

 

 

[TommyPickles]

Lots of good points. But no one wants to commit an answer to the question: who will have a higher OPS in 2023, Mateo or Frazier?

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Lots of good points. But no one wants to commit an answer to the question: who will have a higher OPS in 2023, Mateo or Frazier?

The odds favor Frazier.   He's been over .700 many times before.  I'll go with Frazier.

[Hank Scorpio]

6 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Lots of good points. But no one wants to commit an answer to the question: who will have a higher OPS in 2023, Mateo or Frazier?

I will go Frazier due to the banning of the shift. Hopefully it's a small sample size for the both of them.