Mateo Trade Potential

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I get what you’re saying, but what I’m saying is why is Gunnar being dismissed at SS like he’s some plodder out there?  
 

I’d forget about Mateo’s WAR because every GM in baseball did. I’m pretty sure Elias shopped Mateo, and his WAR, for a SP via trade this offseason. Nobody bit. 

Oh, you’re “pretty sure Elias shopped Mateo?”   OK then, I’m convinced!

Actually, I’m not.   Maybe they shopped him, maybe they didn’t.   Maybe some team offered someone pretty good in a trade, and Elias didn’t bite, or maybe not.     I have no idea.  One thing’s clear - the O’s front office doesn’t have leaks.   There’s not a single move they’ve made this winter that anyone had a clue about until it happened.  

Nobody should be dismissing Gunnar at SS.   It’s all about finding the best overall offense/defense combo at 2B/SS/3B, and there’s like about a dozen possible combinations.   It seems like the general consensus, which could be wrong but probably isn’t, is that (1) defensively, Mateo > Ortiz > Henderson, but (2) Henderson is at least average as a major league defensive SS, and maybe better than that.  He’s definitely not a “plodder” out there, we’re just fortunate to have two guys who are even better defenders than he is.   It still might make sense to have Henderson as the SS because of his superior offense, but that depends what the options are at 2B and 3B.  It’s complicated and I suspect that even the front office doesn’t have a fixed idea of how it will all play out.  
 

[Moose Milligan]

10 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

The Ozzie Smith comment was just a generalization. I used Simmons as an example in one of my other posts. Even he was a significantly more productive hitter than Mateo in his prime. And Ordonez sort of makes my point for me. He played 20 years ago! I think hitting has evolved in baseball to the point where teams don't have to sell out completely on offensive for good defensive anymore. It happens occasionally, but it never seems to be a team's Plan A.  Mateo might have been an everyday player in the late 80s or 90s, but he shouldn't be in this day and age. I'm not saying that he doesn't have value, I'm just saying that the more they play him, the more I think they're going to expose the holes in his game. Full disclosure, I also think last season was a career year for him an expect some regression across the board. 

 

So you admit to generalizations in your arguments.  

I'm not lobbying for Mateo playing every day but I'm comfortable with him starting the season as the OD SS.  I'm fully expecting him to lose his grip on the position as Henderson/Westburg/Ortiz force the issue.  

But the holes in his game have been exposed plenty.  He's a great glove man, he's a weak hitter who can go on a bit of a tear and look like he's putting it together but he really isn't and he can steal bases at a good clip.  The hole in his game is that he's a bad hitter.  That's really it.

 

10 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

We'll have to see how it plays out, but this is the first good argument I've seen someone make in favor of Mateo's value and the value of defensive minded players in general. 

 

What?  The shift is the first good argument you've seen in favor of Mateo's value?  

7 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I get what you’re saying, but what I’m saying is why is Gunnar being dismissed at SS like he’s some plodder out there?  

 

No one has said this. 

Quote

I’d forget about Mateo’s WAR because every GM in baseball did. I’m pretty sure Elias shopped Mateo, and his WAR, for a SP via trade this offseason. Nobody bit. 
 

Every GM in baseball did, you're sure about that?  How are you so sure that Elias shopped him?  Where was it reported?

Quote

 

It’s hard to believe, but the perfect storm happened. We’re swimming in SS depth. We have better options than Mateo. Like the #1 prospect in baseball. 

I can see an elite defensive left side of the infield (as I said, until someone else forces the issue and Mateo moves on) with Henderson at third and Mateo at SS.  I'm not so sure why you're so dead set on Henderson at SS, it's not as if he loses value while playing third.  

[Camden Yards]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Oh, you’re “pretty sure Elias shopped Mateo?”   OK then, I’m convinced!

Actually, I’m not.   Maybe they shopped him, maybe they didn’t.   Maybe some team offered someone pretty good in a trade, and Elias didn’t bite, or maybe not.     I have no idea.  One thing’s clear - the O’s front office doesn’t have leaks.   There’s not a single move they’ve made this winter that anyone had a clue about until it happened.  

Nobody should be dismissing Gunnar at SS.   It’s all about finding the best overall offense/defense combo at 2B/SS/3B, and there’s like about a dozen possible combinations.   It seems like the general consensus, which could be wrong but probably isn’t, is that (1) defensively, Mateo > Ortiz > Henderson, but (2) Henderson is at least average as a major league defensive SS, and maybe better than that.  He’s definitely not a “plodder” out there, we’re just fortunate to have two guys who are even better defenders than he is.   It still might make sense to have Henderson as the SS because of his superior offense, but that depends what the options are at 2B and 3B.  It’s complicated and I suspect that even the front office doesn’t have a fixed idea of how it will all play out.  
 

It’s good to have options! It’s definitely better than trying to find the best combo out of Ruiz, Alberto, Galvis, Franco, etc lol. 

[Moose Milligan]

38 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

It’s good to have options! It’s definitely better than trying to find the best combo out of Ruiz, Alberto, Galvis, Franco, etc lol. 

Alberto.

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

So you admit to generalizations in your arguments.  

I'm not lobbying for Mateo playing every day but I'm comfortable with him starting the season as the OD SS.  I'm fully expecting him to lose his grip on the position as Henderson/Westburg/Ortiz force the issue.  

But the holes in his game have been exposed plenty.  He's a great glove man, he's a weak hitter who can go on a bit of a tear and look like he's putting it together but he really isn't and he can steal bases at a good clip.  The hole in his game is that he's a bad hitter.  That's really it.

 

 

What?  The shift is the first good argument you've seen in favor of Mateo's value?  

No one has said this. 

Every GM in baseball did, you're sure about that?  How are you so sure that Elias shopped him?  Where was it reported?

I can see an elite defensive left side of the infield (as I said, until someone else forces the issue and Mateo moves on) with Henderson at third and Mateo at SS.  I'm not so sure why you're so dead set on Henderson at SS, it's not as if he loses value while playing third.  

Jeebus Cripes dude, if you quote one more person in your next post you're going to have to add footnotes!

Let's stop arguing about this, because it sounds like we're both on the same page. Neither one of us want to see him play everyday (in a perfect world). 

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, HakunaSakata said:

Jeebus Cripes dude, if you quote one more person in your next post you're going to have to add footnotes!

Let's stop arguing about this, because it sounds like we're both on the same page. Neither one of us want to see him play everyday (in a perfect world). 

We sort of are.  We agree that Mateo isn't a long term solution but I don't mind having a defensive minded SS.  I want to see what Ortiz can do but I'm not 100% sold that he'll be an upgrade from a WAR perspective.   If he hits better -which is a low bar to hurdle- and is good with the glove, he should get the spot.  

[sportsfan8703]

13 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

We sort of are.  We agree that Mateo isn't a long term solution but I don't mind having a defensive minded SS.  I want to see what Ortiz can do but I'm not 100% sold that he'll be an upgrade from a WAR perspective.   If he hits better -which is a low bar to hurdle- and is good with the glove, he should get the spot.  

I just think it’s funny that Mateo is basically going to be the Odor of the 23’ team. Given all the Odor feelings here.

I had forgotten that Ramon Urias tweaked his knee at the very end of the season pretty bad.  Reading the reports from then, it was a knee sprain in which he was going to be sidelined 8-10 weeks. That could explain Frazier. So maybe that doesn’t rule Urias out at second base some. 

[RZNJ]

57 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I just think it’s funny that Mateo is basically going to be the Odor of the 23’ team. Given all the Odor feelings here.

I had forgotten that Ramon Urias tweaked his knee at the very end of the season pretty bad.  Reading the reports from then, it was a knee sprain in which he was going to be sidelined 8-10 weeks. That could explain Frazier. So maybe that doesn’t rule Urias out at second base some. 

You’re comparing a SS who was arguably one of the best defensive SS in baseball to Odor?  
 

 

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I just think it’s funny that Mateo is basically going to be the Odor of the 23’ team.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Similar OPS. Odor just didn’t get the SS positional boost for dWAR, and didn’t accumulate SB. When both players step up to the plate, we’re not confident. 

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Similar OPS. Odor just didn’t get the SS positional boost for dWAR, and didn’t accumulate SB. When both players step up to the plate, we’re not confident. 

ok dude. 

[HakunaSakata]

16 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Similar OPS. Odor just didn’t get the SS positional boost for dWAR, and didn’t accumulate SB. When both players step up to the plate, we’re not confident. 

Yeah, I'm not the biggest Mateo fan, but that analogy/comparison is like the Spider-man meme, but with Spider-man and Danny Devito pointing at each other. 

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Similar OPS. Odor just didn’t get the SS positional boost for dWAR, and didn’t accumulate SB. When both players step up to the plate, we’re not confident. 

So long as we’re only talking about batting, the comparison is fine.   But the “positional boost” Mateo gets at SS vs. Odor at 2B is only worth 0.4 rWAR.   The big difference is that Mateo is an excellent defensive SS while Odor is a well below average defensive 2B.  That’s worth about 2.3 rWAR, independent of the “positional boost.”   The baserunning (which is more than just steals) is worth about 0.5 rWAR in Mateo’s favor.  

[OriolesMagic83]

8 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I just think it’s funny that Mateo is basically going to be the Odor of the 23’ team. Given all the Odor feelings here.

I had forgotten that Ramon Urias tweaked his knee at the very end of the season pretty bad.  Reading the reports from then, it was a knee sprain in which he was going to be sidelined 8-10 weeks. That could explain Frazier. So maybe that doesn’t rule Urias out at second base some. 

I'm afraid that Frazier will be the Odor of the 2023 O's.  He's "guaranteed" to bounce back to career norms, but sometimes when a player has a bad year, he's just declining to a non MLB player.  With the O's recent history, there's zero chance that Frazier is released or even demoted to a reserve before the All Star break, even if he hits worse than Odor.  Offense could really struggle if 2023 Mateo is worse than 2022 Mateo.  Mateo is 28, it's a good bet he's at his peak as a player,  and will decline from here.

[RZNJ]

28 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm afraid that Frazier will be the Odor of the 2023 O's.  He's "guaranteed" to bounce back to career norms, but sometimes when a player has a bad year, he's just declining to a non MLB player.  With the O's recent history, there's zero chance that Frazier is released or even demoted to a reserve before the All Star break, even if he hits worse than Odor.  Offense could really struggle if 2023 Mateo is worse than 2022 Mateo.  Mateo is 28, it's a good bet he's at his peak as a player,  and will decline from here.

Mateo is 27.  Turns 28 in June.  He has 714 career AB's and just finished his first full ML season.  He may have peeked but I don't think the Orioles are as sure as you are.