Colton Cowser 2023

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

the fact that Frazier is 5th on this team in rWAR really shows the limitations of that metric. I once was a pretty big proponent of WAR but better metrics are out there like WOBA for hitting and OOA for fielding. How Frazier is worth 0.6 oWAR with a 91 OPS+, a .307 WOBA (.316 is mlb average) as well as 0.4 dWAR when is OAA is -3 tells me there equation needs to be adjusted. 

Do you really think he's the 5th most important Oriole this season? 

rWAR really gives too much weight to walks and strike outs, two areas where he does do well in because there's nobody with an ounce of sence that thinks he's the 5th most valuable Orioles on this team this year. 

 

dWAR isn’t equivalent to OAA, since it contains an adjustment for the difficulty of the defensive position played.  Really, the equivalent measure is Rfield, which also is shown on the WAR breakdown.  There, they have him at +3.  Here’s a list of advanced metrics on Frazier:

OAA: -3

Rfield (also known as Rdrs): + 3

Rtot: +1

UZR: +1.0

You prefer OAA over the others, that’s fine with me.  I probably like it best of the four, but when the other three all disagree with OAA directionally, it makes me wonder.  

rWAR has Frazier at 0.9, fWAR says 0.3.   The latter seems closer to reality to me, or really perhaps it’s in between.  Either way, he’s been decent. 
 

[AnythingO's]

28 minutes ago, vab said:

I don't see them bringing Cowser up until he has a clear shot at regular ABs but Hays, Santander and Mullins better stay off the IL. Once he gets in, he might not come back out. 

I agree with this but it's a balancing act for ME. Cowser, Mullins, Hays and maybe even Stowers are better defensive OFs than Santander now. Santander was healthier last year probably because of DH time. However he is less productive (SLG) at DH so you sacrifice some defense for offense. Santander isn't the future COF and he likely isn't the 30 HR guy going forward so you have to transition eventually. I would blame Hyde for Odor, Aguilar getting ABs last year over Vavra, Stowers because - veteranosity. Same with Frazier, McCann this year. ME needs to move a body or 2 (Hays, Santander, Urias, Mateo) for the transition to occur.

[Just Regular]

In Elias' eyes I believe Cowser is fundamentally like Grayson or Gunnar, so I think he passes that litmus test.

There are some dynamics the end of this year that remind me of Nomar being shipped out when the Curse broke.

The Twins are I feel the likeliest first 3 days opponent should we get there, and all their best pitchers are RHP.    You can oppose them with:

A. Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle and Ramon Urias

B. Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday with under 3 x 129 plate appearances of MLB experience

C. Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad with half a season or more, and Jackson Holliday with 129 plate appearances of MLB experience

All the options have promise.

I liked the mention of tradecraft the other day, and believe to the media its basic strategy for Elias to talk up the downtrodden and regulate expectations on the hot runners.     Actions will bear out.    

[deward]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, there is more to it than this though. They also should have upgraded the pitching staff more. 

The thing is, everyone wants to look at the SSS of the beginning of the year or they want to look at one move in a vacuum. 
 

All of it is connected. I was in favor of Eovaldi. If he gets off to a similar start here as he has in Texas, that is more pressure off of the young kids who could have been up.

And btw, there was still plenty of bet depth if you get rid of those guys.

I also was in favor of trading Mullins. What kind of pitching help does he bring in?  How much better off are we there or are we worse off?

If you look at things only as they are now and just take 2 of the vets out and replace them With the rookies, we agree that it could make things tougher.

But if you upgrade the worst parts of your team (ie OF defense and starting pitching), maybe things are still in good shape. 
 

It’s a lot of ifs, I agree…but the ultimate goal is to have the best team possible by the end of the year and be in the playoffs.

You don’t automatically make the playoffs because you have a really good record on May 12.

How you built the entire team is what is key.

Looking back at this, I think I misread your initial post as you wanting to trade Urias, Mateo, AND two of the OF. Trading two of the vets in total, I would have been ok with. I also would have been fine with just one trade. Elias seems to be pretty risk averse, so I think one trade would have been the best to hope for, given that one rookie was already getting an everyday role.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, deward said:

Looking back at this, I think I misread your initial post as you wanting to trade Urias, Mateo, AND two of the OF. Trading two of the vets in total, I would have been ok with. I also would have been fine with just one trade. Elias seems to be pretty risk averse, so I think one trade would have been the best to hope for, given that one rookie was already getting an everyday role.

Well, we could have dealt 2 of them in 1 trade.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

dWAR isn’t equivalent to OAA, since it contains an adjustment for the difficulty of the defensive position played.  Really, the equivalent measure is Rfield, which also is shown on the WAR breakdown.  There, they have him at +3.  Here’s a list of advanced metrics on Frazier:

OAA: -3

Rfield (also known as Rdrs): + 3

Rtot: +1

UZR: +1.0

You prefer OAA over the others, that’s fine with me.  I probably like it best of the four, but when the other three all disagree with OAA directionally, it makes me wonder.  

rWAR has Frazier at 0.9, fWAR says 0.3.   The latter seems closer to reality to me, or really perhaps it’s in between.  Either way, he’s been decent. 
 

I'll be honest, I find Frazier to be an average fielder at best. He makes most plays though he seems better going to his left than right. His lack of arm strength has seen them come up a split second short on a few DP chances though his turns are pretty quick. 

I have definitely started using fWAR more as I feel it gives a better true indicator. To me, Frazier is probably a little above replacement level so I could buy 0.3 WAR.

[RZNJ]

Agreed on Frazier.  Not the rangiest infielder and his arm is below average although he's sure-handed and has a quick release on the pivot.     He's a placeholder.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

In Elias' eyes I believe Cowser is fundamentally like Grayson or Gunnar, so I think he passes that litmus test.

There are some dynamics the end of this year that remind me of Nomar being shipped out when the Curse broke.

The Twins are I feel the likeliest first 3 days opponent should we get there, and all their best pitchers are RHP.    You can oppose them with:

A. Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle and Ramon Urias

B. Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday with under 3 x 129 plate appearances of MLB experience

C. Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad with half a season or more, and Jackson Holliday with 129 plate appearances of MLB experience

All the options have promise.

I liked the mention of tradecraft the other day, and believe to the media its basic strategy for Elias to talk up the downtrodden and regulate expectations on the hot runners.     Actions will bear out.    

I’m the one that brought up the idea of “tradecraft” when it comes to the public comments of front office personnel like Elias, almost all sports orgs engage in it. So I don’t put any stock into what he says but rather in what he does. And I do agree with you that there will be a place for some of our prospects to be given opportunities this year and maybe even into the postseason.

However, I see just about ZERO CHANCE of Holliday being a part of that mix. I don’t see anything about how Elias has handled anyone to believe that is even a reasonable notion. Why would Elias treat his prized possession 1:1 different than all the others including Adley? I believe that would be very risky and not worth it to his development to get a potential very small advantage. Everyone in the lineup doesn’t have to platoon and that is okay.

[Just Regular]

Granted I'm being intentionally fanciful with Holliday, but 19 year olds able to compete at the highest level have occasionally existed.

Had Tampa used Wander in 2020, his extension might have had to be 11/202 instead of 11/182, and OMG how horrible for Stuart Sternberg.     Then age 30 Joey Wendle, not to liken him to Adam Frazier or anything, went 2-for-18 that World Series.

[Gurgi]

32 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Granted I'm being intentionally fanciful with Holliday, but 19 year olds able to compete at the highest level have occasionally existed.

Had Tampa used Wander in 2020, his extension might have had to be 11/202 instead of 11/182, and OMG how horrible for Stuart Sternberg.     Then age 30 Joey Wendle, not to liken him to Adam Frazier or anything, went 2-for-18 that World Series.

I think you dont understand Tampa.  Everything is about money.  I dont think they will ever be in a WIN now scenario where they push all their chips into the center.  They always have the long term foremost in their thinking.

And John Angelos and Elias have both made comments about copying Tampa.  Personally I think the Angelos family want to sell the Orioles in the next three to five years.  

[Hank Scorpio]

32 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

I think you dont understand Tampa.  Everything is about money.  I dont think they will ever be in a WIN now scenario where they push all their chips into the center.  They always have the long term foremost in their thinking.

And John Angelos and Elias have both made comments about copying Tampa.  Personally I think the Angelos family want to sell the Orioles in the next three to five years.  

I used to think that before I saw the assertion that the Orioles posted an $83MM operating income in 2022.

https://www.forbes.com/teams/baltimore-orioles/?sh=37eb8e5276db

Cheap payroll FOR THE WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Can_of_corn]

46 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

I think you dont understand Tampa.  Everything is about money.  I dont think they will ever be in a WIN now scenario where they push all their chips into the center.  They always have the long term foremost in their thinking.

And John Angelos and Elias have both made comments about copying Tampa.  Personally I think the Angelos family want to sell the Orioles in the next three to five years.  

It pains me to defend Sternberg but the Rays do care, at least a bit, about putting a winning team on the field.

This isn't Oakland.

You don't have a run of excellence like the Rays have by accident.

Edited May 12, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Gurgi said:

I think you dont understand Tampa.  Everything is about money.  I dont think they will ever be in a WIN now scenario where they push all their chips into the center.  They always have the long term foremost in their thinking.

And John Angelos and Elias have both made comments about copying Tampa.  Personally I think the Angelos family want to sell the Orioles in the next three to five years.  

Tampa just sounds like Baltimore south, except the O's haven't extended anyone.  The Rays extended 3 players, Springs, Fairbanks and Diaz this offseason.  That's in addition to the previous extensions of Franco and Lowe.  It's embarrassing when the O's can't financially compete with a team that is under consideration for relocation.  Your last sentence is the only one that gives me hope.  I believe when Peter dies, mlb will force the sale. 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Gurgi said:

I think you dont understand Tampa.  Everything is about money. 

I think we all get that gist - I'm saying they may have messed up and missed a valuable investment opportunity.

As a fan of the game of baseball, it is unfortunate when the world's best players are commoditized for the likes of Angelos and Sternberg.

The Rays baseball people are amazing.

[Otter]

19 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'll be honest, I find Frazier to be an average fielder at best. He makes most plays though he seems better going to his left than right. His lack of arm strength has seen them come up a split second short on a few DP chances though his turns are pretty quick. 

I have definitely started using fWAR more as I feel it gives a better true indicator. To me, Frazier is probably a little above replacement level so I could buy 0.3 WAR.

Just based on the eye test, Frazier seems to have mediocre range at best.  He does seem very reliable on balls he gets to, but some get through that it felt like he should have reached.  How does Westburg's range compare?