Colton Cowser 2023

[btdart20]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If only we saw that coming…

Do you think it wasn't seen?  That Elias didn't realize he had Cowser or Ortiz or Westburg in the wings heading into the season?  I don't see how that's possible.  The depth was intentionally planned for.  At least in a projectable probability sort of way. 

Pure speculation here:  The cog in the wheel is Gunnar's development.  Once it clicks for him, we'll see the next guy up getting his hacks replacing the low man on the production line.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Do you think it wasn't seen?  That Elias didn't realize he had Cowser or Ortiz or Westburg in the wings heading into the season?  I don't see how that's possible.  The depth was intentionally planned for.  At least in a projectable probability sort of way. 

Pure speculation here:  The cog in the wheel is Gunnar's development.  Once it clicks for him, we'll see the next guy up getting his hacks replacing the low man on the production line.

He knew it but yet he kept everyone and added Frazier. He has lesser players playing in a season where he’s supposed to be going for it and he’s paying a lot more money to do it.

 

[glenn__davis]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

Finished the night at .317/.456/.561 after getting on base all four times.  And remember,  it took him 6 games to get going at the start of the year.   Since then, he’s hitting .374/.504/.677.   

By the way, he’s hitting .304/.467/.604 vs. LHP, despite striking out 10 times in 28 PA against them.  
 

Wow, the bolded is pretty nuts.  That's some kind of extended heater.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Wow, the bolded is pretty nuts.  That's some kind of extended heater.  

If only he would do something to show he was ready to be promoted.

 

[LTO's]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He knew it but yet he kept everyone and added Frazier. He has lesser players playing in a season where he’s supposed to be going for it and he’s paying a lot more money to do it.

 

Does he? Frazier is top 5 in WAR on a team that's 24-13 and just outscored the two best teams in baseball. Highly unlikely any of the Norfolk infielders would outperform Mateo and Urias to date. Highly unlikely Cowser outperforms Santander, Mullins or Hays to date. Grayrod and Gunnar are far better prospects than anyone in Norfolk right now and have both struggled so far this season. It was smart of Elias to start the season how we have. It's impossible to argue otherwise. 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Does he? Frazier is top 5 in WAR on a team that's 24-13 and just outscored the two best teams in baseball. Highly unlikely any of the Norfolk infielders would outperform Mateo and Urias to date. Highly unlikely Cowser outperforms Santander, Mullins or Hays to date. Grayrod and Gunnar are far better prospects than anyone in Norfolk right now and have both struggled so far this season. It was smart of Elias to start the season how we have. It's impossible to argue otherwise. 

Frazier isn’t good. I don’t care what the stats say in a SSS so far this year. I’m glad he has put together some good at bats and I do agree that his contact rate is nice to have in certain situations but the defense isn’t that great and the bat is weak overall.

That said, I felt he could be a 2 WAR guy this year and still felt it was a bad signing. His performance wasn’t the driving force in why I didn’t like the signing.

As for Mateo and/or Urias. The factor you are missing is what we could have traded for had we dealt them. You want to hang onto these small sample sizes as if they mean much but the overall point is looking long term for this season.  Besides, there are plenty of at bats for one, if not both of them, had them made other moves or, in the case of Frazier, not made a move at all.

What we have in the minors is clearly more talented. That doesn’t mean that the production would be better right away but over the course of the season, I think it would be.  Of course, the longer you wait on bringing them up, the more into the season the adjustment period is.

On top of that, it’s not just the IFers. They should have traded one of the COF as well.

I had called for 2 of Hays, Santander, Urias, Mountcastle and Mateo to be traded. Now, it’s clear they don’t feel Santander can play first, so with having that info now, I wouldn’t have wanted Mounty traded.

So, 2 of the other 4. You trade 2 of them and don’t sign Frazier and this team can play these guys on a more regular basis and I feel, by the end of the year, the ML team and organization is better off for it.

MAYBE you aren’t off to this same start but the ending point is the key.

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Ohfan67]

Ahhh, more Frazier!!! Every thread is a Frazier thread. 

[deward]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Frazier isn’t good. I don’t care what the stats say in a SSS so far this year. I’m glad he has put together some good at bats and I do agree that his contact rate is nice to have in certain situations but the defense isn’t that great and the bat is weak. 
 

That said, I felt he could be a 2 WAR guy this year and still felt it was a bad signing.

As for Mateo and/or Urias. The factor you are missing is what we could have traded for had we dealt them. You want to hang onto these small sample sizes as if they mean much but the overall point is looking long term for this season.  Besides, there are plenty of at bats for one, if not both of them, had them made other moves or, in the case of Frazier, not made a move at all.

What we have in the minors is clearly more talented. That doesn’t mean that the production would be better right away but over the course of the season, I think it would be.  Of course, the longer you wait on bringing them up, the more into the season the adjustment period is.

On top of that, it’s not just the IFers. They should have traded one of the COF as well.

I had called for 2 of Hays, Santander, Urias, Mountcastle and Mateo to be traded. Now, it’s clear they don’t feel Santander can play first, so with having that info now, I wouldn’t have wanted Mounty traded.

So, 2 of the other 4. You trade 2 of them and don’t sign Frazier and this team can play these guys on a more regular basis and I feel, by the end of the year, the ML team and organization is better off for it.

MAYBE you aren’t off to this same start but the ending point is the key.

 

Or, you create a potential scenario where all of your rookies are struggling with the big league transition (as Gunnar and Stowers currently are), you've jettisoned your veteran depth that could have helped, and the team is hopelessly out of the playoff picture by the time enough of the rookies figure it out to gain any traction. I'd have liked for Elias to clear room for one more guy (mostly by not signing Frazier), but I can't blame him for not wanting to gamble the season on having to sink or swim with 4-5 rookies.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, deward said:

Or, you create a potential scenario where all of your rookies are struggling with the big league transition (as Gunnar and Stowers currently are), you've jettisoned your veteran depth that could have helped, and the team is hopelessly out of the playoff picture by the time enough of the rookies figure it out to gain any traction. I'd have liked for Elias to clear room for one more guy (mostly by not signing Frazier), but I can't blame him for not wanting to gamble the season on having to sink or swim with 4-5 rookies.

Which is why you promote them the season before you make the playoff push.

Also, you can't be afraid to promote your younger players.  Maybe Frazier is better while player X is acclimating but is he going to be superior for the entire season?

[LTO's]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which is why you promote them the season before you make the playoff push.

Working wonders for Henderson. Who btw is way better of a prospect than anyone in Norfolk. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Working wonders for Henderson. Who btw is way better of a prospect than anyone in Norfolk. 

Yep, it's an exact science all right.

I also wouldn't use Henderson as a measuring stick as he retained rookie status.

[WietersCorner]

I think people here overestimate AAA numbers and how they may or may not translate to the Majors. If you need a reminder, just look at Kyle Stowers.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, deward said:

Or, you create a potential scenario where all of your rookies are struggling with the big league transition (as Gunnar and Stowers currently are), you've jettisoned your veteran depth that could have helped, and the team is hopelessly out of the playoff picture by the time enough of the rookies figure it out to gain any traction. I'd have liked for Elias to clear room for one more guy (mostly by not signing Frazier), but I can't blame him for not wanting to gamble the season on having to sink or swim with 4-5 rookies.

Well, there is more to it than this though. They also should have upgraded the pitching staff more. 

The thing is, everyone wants to look at the SSS of the beginning of the year or they want to look at one move in a vacuum. 
 

All of it is connected. I was in favor of Eovaldi. If he gets off to a similar start here as he has in Texas, that is more pressure off of the young kids who could have been up.

And btw, there was still plenty of bet depth if you get rid of those guys.

I also was in favor of trading Mullins. What kind of pitching help does he bring in?  How much better off are we there or are we worse off?

If you look at things only as they are now and just take 2 of the vets out and replace them With the rookies, we agree that it could make things tougher.

But if you upgrade the worst parts of your team (ie OF defense and starting pitching), maybe things are still in good shape. 
 

It’s a lot of ifs, I agree…but the ultimate goal is to have the best team possible by the end of the year and be in the playoffs.

You don’t automatically make the playoffs because you have a really good record on May 12.

How you built the entire team is what is key.

[LTO's]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yep, it's an exact science all right.

I also wouldn't use Henderson as a measuring stick as he retained rookie status.

It's not an exact science, you're right. So the idea that there will only be a short acclimation period for these guys is FAR from a sure thing. They could bring up Cowser tomorrow and he could suck for months or even an entire year. Same for Westburg. If that happens, and you don't have the ML depth to weather that storm, you are screwed. There is nothing wrong with letting these guys play every day for a while in AAA, bring them up in the summer and pick their spots to maximize their value and then see where you stand at the end of the year. 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yep, it's an exact science all right.

I also wouldn't use Henderson as a measuring stick as he retained rookie status.

I think you have to admit, LTO’s zinged you pretty good there.   

Everybody here thinks they’re smarter than the GM and have a better idea of when to bring up or rely on prospects vs. acquiring or relying on veterans.  But as you say, it’s not an exact science.   For now, the team is 24-13 and I’m willing to give Elias the benefit of the doubt even if I sometimes find his decisions puzzling.