Adam Frazier 2023

[banks703]

On 6/29/2023 at 3:54 PM, Bemorewins said:

It sounds like you expect Ortiz to hold down SS for about a year or so (late 24)? 

If that is the case, I think we may be better served moving him now by minimize the risk of him not succeeding during that year long time period.

Maybe he is better or much better than Mateo? It would be hard not to be given how bad Mateo has been offensively for 2 months now. But a chance exists that he might not be a great/good offensive player. I would rather another team assume that risk given that he does not have a long term future here, as you described Holliday being slotted to play SS long term.

Yes we might get a bump of offense for a year if he were to replace Mateo today? But maybe we won’t? And then his value goes down as his service time is lowered and his prospect status gone. Plus another thing to consider about him is that he is almost 25. He’s kind of old for a prospect. The longer we retain him, the more of his prime that we start to eat in to. 

I think that he deserves his shot, I just don’t see it here with all of the young INF talent that we possess within the org.

Since this is a Frazier thread, I'll reiterate what I posted yesterday in that I personally think that Jackson Holliday ultimately ends up at 2B or in CF. He's pretty smooth and has good hands. He has above average speed but is not supremely rangey at short. His arm strength is several ticks below someone like Gunnar and Joey and Joey is by far the superior defender at SS, and was at the similar age. To me, Joey Ortiz could be the SS for the next five years here but I don't get to make those decisions. Of course the org has far more data and familiarity with the players than I do but that's how I see it.

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Since this is a Frazier thread, I'll reiterate what I posted yesterday in that I personally think that Jackson Holliday ultimately ends up at 2B or in CF. He's pretty smooth and has good hands. He has above average speed but is not supremely rangey at short. His arm strength is several ticks below someone like Gunnar and Joey and Joey is by far the superior defender at SS, and was at the similar age. To me, Joey Ortiz could be the SS for the next five years here but I don't get to make those decisions. Of course the org has far more data and familiarity with the players than I do but that's how I see it.

The issue is NOT Ortiz’s fielding, most say he is/can be elite in that regard. The issue is does that fielding combined with hitting make him a better player to have in the lineup every day than Holliday, Henderson, or Westburg?

If Gunnar does end up at SS long term as you suggests, and Holliday at 2B. That leaves Westburg for 3B. Where does that leave Ortiz?

[banks703]

45 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The issue is NOT Ortiz’s fielding, most say he is/can be elite in that regard. The issue is does that fielding combined with hitting make him a better player to have in the lineup every day than Holliday, Henderson, or Westburg?

If Gunnar does end up at SS long term as you suggests, and Holliday at 2B. That leaves Westburg for 3B. Where does that leave Ortiz?

I’m suggesting SS goes to Ortiz with Gunnar at 3rd. I think that JW is the odd man out in the Gunnar, Holliday, Mayo 3B/SS/2B mix. 

[clapdiddy]

2 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I’m suggesting SS goes to Ortiz with Gunnar at 3rd. I think that JW is the odd man out in the Gunnar, Holliday, Mayo 3B/SS/2B mix. 

Could definitely see this happening in mid-2024/2025.  Personally, I think the infield should pretty much always be Gunnar/Ortiz/Westburg right now.   Let Mateo/Frazier play a couple of times a week.  

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, banks703 said:

I’m suggesting SS goes to Ortiz with Gunnar at 3rd. I think that JW is the odd man out in the Gunnar, Holliday, Mayo 3B/SS/2B mix. 

I don’t know how it appears to you. But it looks like the O’s have already made their choice between Ortiz and Westburg. Does it look differently to you? 

I don’t want to diminish your apparent love for Joey Ortiz. But it seems that you would prefer to give him a permanent spot at SS while the other much more talented bats get shifted around and don’t receive as many ABs as him. I don’t see how that serves the best interest of the Baltimore Orioles.

[Yossarian]

Everybody seems to be down on Frazier.  While I agree, the signing of Frazier did not seem to make sense given the Orioles depth on the infield in the high minor leagues, Frazier has exceeded my expectations.

Compare him to the franchise darling Adley Rutschman:

AR has about 70 or so more at bats, but,

Slugging percentages are within 20 points,  AR has just one more double and one more homerun than AF.

And if the name of the game is to score runs, to me the two most important stats are RBI and runs scored.  Those numbers are nearly identical for the two players.   

People like to tout OPS as the key offensive stat, but I think that can be deceiving.  What is more valuable, drawing a two-out walk in a blowout?  Or hitting a ground ball to the right side of the infield with a runner on second and nobody out in a close game?  One of them raises your OPS, while the other one can be the difference in a win or a loss.

Say what you will about Frazier, but he hasn't been awful, especially when compared to our All Star.

[OriolesMagic83]

14 hours ago, banks703 said:

I’m suggesting SS goes to Ortiz with Gunnar at 3rd. I think that JW is the odd man out in the Gunnar, Holliday, Mayo 3B/SS/2B mix. 

Westburg has an Mlb bat.  Not so sure about Ortiz.  I would wait for Holliday to get closer to the majors before determining he can't play SS.  I would assume that Elias took Holliday #1 because he felt he could play mlb Ss.  The way Elias has been right about position prospects I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Billy F-Face3]

I'm a bit bewildered by Frazier. He will go cold for stints of time and then out of no-where hit a clutch home run. He didn't hit more than 3 home runs last season and he's already doubled that in half of a season.

Not sure what to make of him.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I'm a bit bewildered by Frazier. He will go cold for stints of time and then out of no-where hit a clutch home run. He didn't hit more than 3 home runs last season and he's already doubled that in half of a season.

Not sure what to make of him.

He does just enough for the team to, in their minds, justify his playing time. He will go cold for 4 or 5 games but then have a few games where he gets some hits and the occasional clutch at bat and it buys him more time.

The problem is, the defense isn’t good and an occasional clutch hit shouldn’t be enough to keep him(at least to the point where he is playing a lot) over Ortiz.  But if they would just DFA Mateo, move Frazier to the bench and start Ortiz and Westburg, that would be good.

[Can_of_corn]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He does just enough for the team to, in their minds, justify his playing time.

 

They don't need to justify themselves.

Who is pressuring them to justify their actions?

[SemperFi]

19 hours ago, banks703 said:

Since this is a Frazier thread, I'll reiterate what I posted yesterday in that I personally think that Jackson Holliday ultimately ends up at 2B or in CF. He's pretty smooth and has good hands. He has above average speed but is not supremely rangey at short. His arm strength is several ticks below someone like Gunnar and Joey and Joey is by far the superior defender at SS, and was at the similar age. To me, Joey Ortiz could be the SS for the next five years here but I don't get to make those decisions. Of course the org has far more data and familiarity with the players than I do but that's how I see it.

Perhaps but there is another consideration: you take a Boras guy 1/1 he tears up the minors then you move him to a non premium position potentially costing him millions-that's not going to sit well with Holliday/Boras.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

Perhaps but there is another consideration: you take a Boras guy 1/1 he tears up the minors then you move him to a non premium position potentially costing him millions-that's not going to sit well with Holliday/Boras.  

Who cares what Boras thinks?

You don't center your player development plans around an agent.

[sportsfan8703]

Frazier isn’t the reason we’ve been struggling. .697, OPS 1.1, WAR on BBREF 10, HR. He’s currently not taking PT away from Westburg. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Frazier isn’t the reason we’ve been struggling. .697, OPS 1.1, WAR on BBREF 10, HR. He’s currently not taking PT away from Westburg. 

.1 fWAR.

[SemperFi]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Who cares what Boras thinks?

You don't center your player development plans around an agent.

I hear what you are saying but that's not the reality of baseball politics. I don't see a compelling reason to move 1/1 drafted premium LH batting SS to 2B-he's not Mountcastle.  He was drafted 1/1 to play SS not 2b.