AL team to watch: White Sox

[Just Regular]

As long as Meg Ryan is Mike Elias' consultant on whether he should add to this team, we'll be okay.

Due diligence for buying GM's in July is gathering information on prices as comprehensively as you can up to the last 72 hours.    Rick Hahn is not going to take your credible Lucas Giolito offer until around then.    It might be last 72 minutes.

Some years there isn't a glaring Manny Machado character for an All-Star break deal a few weeks ahead.    Cease won't be that guy if Ohtani gets to market.    I don't believe Mike Elias even wants to pick his guys until he sees the rolling 15-day Stuff+ type equivalents on July 30.

[clapdiddy]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s far more likely the Os go for a rental type guy that won’t cost as much vs a bigger fish imo.

Agreed.   I think Cease would cost way too much in terms of prospects.   Elias seems to like holding on to "his guys".  Now, at some point, there's going to be a logjam of "his guys" and they will need to make some moves.   

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Agreed.   I think Cease would cost way too much in terms of prospects.   Elias seems to like holding on to "his guys".  Now, at some point, there's going to be a logjam of "his guys" and they will need to make some moves.   

 

That’s the caveat to all of this. When does he make moves because you are right, the log jam needs to be alleviated.

He may decide that trading 3-5 guys for one player is the best way to go. But will he need more than 2 years of service time coming back to do that?

Edited May 2, 2023 by Sports Guy

[BohKnowsBmore]

7 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Agreed.   I think Cease would cost way too much in terms of prospects.   Elias seems to like holding on to "his guys".  Now, at some point, there's going to be a logjam of "his guys" and they will need to make some moves.   

 

I think we're quickly approaching that point with many impending required 40-man additions and not very many planned removals (Gibson, Frazier, who else?)

[clapdiddy]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s the caveat to all of this. When does he make moves because you are right, the log jam needs to be alleviated.

He may decide that trading 3-5 guys for one player is the best way to go. But will he need more than 2 years of service time coming back to do that?

Oh...I definitely think so.  He's playing the short AND long games.   I think it's a smart approach.   You get guys in here who will be here for at least a couple of years.   Now, Giolito could come cheap and be here for just the rest of the season, but you wouldn't have to give up the farm for him.    I think Elias would consider that.   If we're giving up top prospects, though, he will want a guy that will be here and least through 2024 (and probably longer).

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s far more likely the Os go for a rental type guy that won’t cost as much vs a bigger fish imo.

I wonder at the logic of this.  It’s not like the O’s have 3-4 great pitching prospects who are a year away so that they just need an upgrade for 2023 and no longer.  They’re going to have holes to fill this winter, including filling Gibson’s spot.  So I’d say it makes sense to look at some longer term solutions.  

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s far more likely the Os go for a rental type guy that won’t cost as much vs a bigger fish imo.

Ohtani would be a rental! Might cost though. 

Who else is on the rental list?

On truly noncompetitive teams: Giolito, Eduardo.

On teams that could fall out: Nola, Flaherty, Mikolas, Montgomery, Cobb

Unfortunately Milwaukee has wrecked our plans by being good this year. If Philly falls out, Wheeler could be a really good target from the '24-25 FA list. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wonder at the logic of this.  It’s not like the O’s have 3-4 great pitching prospects who are a year away so that they just need an upgrade for 2023 and no longer.  They’re going to have holes to fill this winter, including filling Gibson’s spot.  So I’d say it makes sense to look at some longer term solutions.  

Agree it makes sense..but not sure I guy the Os bringing in pitching that costs a lot of prospects and a lot of money.

Now, is there a starter out there that has 3-4 years of service time left?  If so, that’s the guy to go get.

[Bemorewins]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There are so many directions the Os could go on and so many directions the other team could go in.

Maybe the WS don’t want a full rebuild and like the idea of a guy like Mateo?  Or maybe they want a solid guy like Urias?  Or maybe they would be interested in Bradish or Tate or whoever.

In other words, we have ML talent that could also be available in a deal, although that is obviously harder to part with when you are contending.

Of course, it wouldn’t just be those guys but guys like that could be part of the deal. 

I think we also need to recognize that Cease, as good as he was last year, does have some wall issues and hasn’t been that great outside of last year. So, how much is he really worth? 
 

If I were a betting man, I would bet on the WS keeping Cease and looking to unload several other guys but he would likely bring the most back and he only has 2 years of control left, so if they don’t want to pay him, it would make sense for them to trade him.

If Cease is not available and maybe he isn't for all we know, I would then pivot onto the next top starter available. Maybe one of the MIA guys? Since the are so pitching rich and positional player poor; plus they are not going anywhere with their current team. 

But either way, I don't like the idea of "hedging our bets" and wasting another season by acquiring a starter who is not that good simply because it won't cost us much.

You have o give in order to truly get. And we have abundance/excess when it comes to org talent. Maybe we can off load some of our current Major League excess? But if we cannot, I don't know why there is such great hesitation in trading away some prospects?

Yes it's possible that some of the players that we move will end up doing well... So what? If we get back the kind of pitcher that we need, that player could help us a great deal in the post season.

Lucas Giolito has 2 postseason starts - 1 great and 1 horrible. Other than that what has he ever done for people to have confidence that he's the kind of pitcher that we need as a game #1 starter? At least Cease has the 2.20 ERA from last season and we know about Alcantara pedigree/accomplishments.

We are going to need that type of pitching/pitcher in order to win in the Fall given our competition in the AL. And as most of you know, next year, and the year after that, and whatever year; won't be any different. 

We have one guy in our org who has the talent to be a top rotation guy (Grayson). That simply is not enough if you want a serious shot at a World Series coming through the AL. I think it would be a serious waste of the opportunity that this season is presenting to us, not to give us the past chance possible to succeed in the Fall.  I mean how long do people want to be in rebuild or wait around for DL Hall (only to realize that he is not a top of the rotation starter)?

We have an abundance of org positional talent, why WOULDN'T we use it to get the ONE THING that we need? I'm sure that many realize that our ownership is not interested in spending what it would take to bring in a top pitcher via FA. It's either we do the trade at the deadline (if the right piece is available), the offseason, or we continue down the path we are on (which is good but not nearly good enough) and waste more of Adley's years. Maybe there is something I am missing? If so, somebody please tell me.

[Bemorewins]

20 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Agreed.   I think Cease would cost way too much in terms of prospects.   Elias seems to like holding on to "his guys".  Now, at some point, there's going to be a logjam of "his guys" and they will need to make some moves.   

 

There is already a log jam. Major League ready top 100 guys are just sitting at AAA because we have to many positional players as is. 

I believe like most posters here that Elias is very smart. He had to anticipate the 'log jam' all along with the draft strategy of the last 5 years.

We have an over abundance of positional prospects, but we don't have the Major League pitching required to make us true World Series contenders.

I'm not suggesting, nor do I believe that Elias will just give away talent/prospects at the deadline. And if a similarly talented pitcher as Cease can be had for less, I'm sure he will do that.

But when you have THIS MANY prospects/org talent, you cannot hoard talent for too long. It does not help the Baltimore Orioles, to platoon top 100 guys just so you can keep all of "your guys" when some of the redundant pieces can be used to get the thing that you don't have. If we don't acquire Cease (or if he is unavailable or the asking price is too high). Then we are going to have to get someone of a similar profile. Lucas Giolito is not good enough to anchor a rotation that wins a World Series. 

If we trade for a similar type player or a Eduardo Rodriguez, we are going to find ourselves in the same boat next year, and would have then wasted several prospects trying to do the same thing. Why not fix the wound with surgery instead of keep trying to patch it up with band aids?

[Bemorewins]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s the caveat to all of this. When does he make moves because you are right, the log jam needs to be alleviated.

He may decide that trading 3-5 guys for one player is the best way to go. But will he need more than 2 years of service time coming back to do that?

Alcantara has 4 more years at very reasonable dollars on his contract after this season. Of course he would cost a premium. But you can't walk into a Bentley dealer asking to pay Toyota prices. 

[sportsfan8703]

After thinking about this what is the point of only picking up a rental?  We’ll just be in the same boat the next season. It’s not like we’re going to spend big FA bucks. A rental could be acquired, and I’m sure we will, but it shouldn’t be the only move we do. 
 

Another poster pointed out that Ohtani might be available. Well that changes everything. Then Cease is no longer the top pitching option. I guess the best thing for us would be to root for a really top heavy playoff picture, which it’s looking like that, and then there are many more clear sellers. 
 

Also, are the CWS your typical going into full rebuild mode?  Their problem has been injuries to position players mainly. Kinda flukey. I really don’t think they have to sell unless the owner wants to dump payroll. If healthy they are a playoff contender. 

[Bemorewins]

21 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Oh...I definitely think so.  He's playing the short AND long games.   I think it's a smart approach.   You get guys in here who will be here for at least a couple of years.   Now, Giolito could come cheap and be here for just the rest of the season, but you wouldn't have to give up the farm for him.    I think Elias would consider that.   If we're giving up top prospects, though, he will want a guy that will be here and least through 2024 (and probably longer).

There is NO PLAYER in the sport of baseball that we could acquire in a trade that would cost us the farm. We have NINE top 100 prospects. And that does not include Gunnar. And even when Grayson graduates off the list soon, Basallo will shortly join and maybe Creed Willems by season's end.

Let's say we had to give up 4 of those top 9 or Gunnar or whoever not named Grayson and Adley. We would have FIVE left, which is more than EVERY OTHER org in baseball except for 2 (the Dodgers and Guardians).

I'm not sure where this idea is coming from that it is possible for us to mortgage our future; it's not really possible. Especially from ONE SINGULAR trade. This is what FIVE years of intentional loosing, good drafting (of the same thing - positional players), and very good development gets you. More minor league/young talent than everyone else.

But what is possible is for us not to win anything, but hoarding redundant positional prospects and not having the necessary pitching required to win in October.

What gives you confidence that we can win a World Series with Giolito as our number 1 starting going into every series in the AL (given who we would have to face)? There is nothing in his profile that says to me that he is that guy, other than ONE SINGLE dominant postseason start in his career.

[sportsfan8703]

Are we even a good fit with the CWS?  Aren’t they locked into a bunch of position players?  They’re just always hurt. 

[eddie83]

Means plays a huge role in this. By the deadline we should know where he stands. 
 

My concern with Grayson all along is will he be available in October? 
 

There have been teams without elite starters who get by and win a World Series. A certain K rate for instance. If we remain healthy the looking for a number 5 type starter may not be a need. It’s more about finding someone who can legitimately help you win in October. One question you have to ask yourself is if I aquire this arm will they start Game 1/2 of a best of 3?  If not it doesn’t mean you shouldn’t look at them but it does change the equation.