Elias’ Pitching Acquisitions

[sportsfan8703]

We could use Irvin as a matchup LH SP.  I just don't see that match up anytime soon.  Maybe Atlanta?  

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Kremer might be the biggest individual disappointment in the earlygoing.

Cole Irvin

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, deward said:

The problem with living in the margins is you sometimes get marginal results. How many of those guys do you have full confidence in? Wells looks good, Cano and Coluombe look great (but so did Perez last year), Gibson should at least be reliable. Beyond that, I'm not sure. Last year's success was heavily fueled by unexpectedly good results from Bradish, Kremer, Voth, and Perez. Now all four are struggling and it's not clear yet if they'll be able to recapture what they found in 2022. Irvin couldn't make it through April without getting demoted. I fear that the bullpen will be worn out by June if the starters can't get their act together once they start facing better teams. 

I agree on all points.  Only guy I’m really high on and think could be a #3+ maybe #2 is Cade Povich.   Happy with the Bradish and Wells acquisitions and think they are solid MLB contributors for 162, but would not be excited about either starting a playoff game 

[tntoriole]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

We could use Irvin as a matchup LH SP.  I just don't see that match up anytime soon.  Maybe Atlanta?  

He has been a dumpster fire in 3 starts at Norfolk.. maybe he has the yips 

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Not saying you are wrong, but where did Hall say that about his back? 

Post game interview after he pitched.

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

He has been a dumpster fire in 3 starts at Norfolk.. maybe he has the yips 

That's just not true.

At Norfolk:

6 IP, 2 ER
5 IP, 5 ER
6 IP, 1 ER

He's had one bad start, and a couple of decent ones. WHIP is still too high, so he's got more work to do. But it hasn't been a dumpster fire. 

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Some of why for enjoying baseball this season I'll continue to talk about Shohei Ohtani in a matter of fact tone as a player acquisition target is his 2023 $$$/WAR profile.

You can navigate the fringes of MLB performers and elevate your Club's replacement level if you don't purposely neglect it, but putting the championship key distance between average performance and excellence is another animal.

I believe if dealt Ohtani will return less than Westburg, Santander and Irvin, should Minasian not want to punt on '24 Trout and '23 Ohtani asks to sever his relationship with Arte Moreno.    I know in '24 I might have to take my chances Cade Povich or John Means can get those guys out chasing an AL6 or better result.

In all the media praise baths for the Rays last month, one of the points is they were in on Freddie Freeman, and they've been quietly in on other top performers.     Even the hedge fund managers know there can be value at the top of the talent curve, while they cold shoulder almost all the world's Jameson Taillons and John Meanses.

For this thread, should we look back at closed books like '22 Jordan Lyles?     Cesar Valdez was fun for a minute.

I debated putting Lyles up there.  The success he had last year after a down 2021 and how is performing currently is definitely something to take note of.  

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

For the life of me I'll never understand posters that call factual posts negative and then spout their rosy opinions on where guys will end up. 

Currently, the Orioles have two starters in the rotation with 6+ ERAs (Kremer and Bradish) and while they're FIPs suggest they should be better, neither has made you confident when they're out on the mound. 

I like to look at XWOBA to get an idea of how a pitcher is getting hit and ultimately how well they can be expected to do going forward. 

Wells            .278
Rodriguez    .316
MLB avg     .322
Gibson         .338
Bradish        .339
Kremer        .398   

If I'm looking at these early numbers, I'm feeling better about Bradish bringing his performance closer to major league average but not so sure about Kremer. His lack of command this year and seeing him get hard pretty consistently even though he can miss bats. The only pitcher this year with a higher XWOBA was Cole Irvin at a grotesque .426 and why he finds himself in AAA. 

It's worth noting that Elias's guys are Wells, Bradish, Gibson and Irvin, while the previous regime acquired Rodriguez and Kremer. 

Either way, the starting rotation is the weak part of this team and unfortunately, we said the same thing going into this offseason and Elias brought in Gibson and Irvin to shore it up. While Gibson has been solid, Irvin has been a disappointment so far, and neither were the TOR this team needed every five days.

Thankfully Elias did what he's great at, and found two guys like Cano and Coulumbe who are cheap and were money in April. I do have concerns that the bullpen will be burnt out if they can't get more innings out of heir starters. I do think Bradish will settle down and be able to provide more consistent length but Kremer is more worrisome.

Rodriguez has been great of late, but of course, the Orioles seem to be on the five innings and done more with him so far no matter how well he's pitching so right now, the team really needs Gibson and Wells to give them consistent length.

 

 

 

I have been posting here for 20 years.  I think you understand me pretty  well.    Besides reading your whole  post what you posted in is pretty close to what I have been saying.

Edited May 1, 2023 by wildcard

[Spy Fox]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Rodriguez has been great of late, but of course, the Orioles seem to be on the five innings and done more with him so far no matter how well he's pitching so right now, the team really needs Gibson and Wells to give them consistent length.

So far I think the Grayson pulls have been reasonable enough. He's been at 83 (in his debut), 93, 92, and 91 pitches in the four occasions he was pulled after 5. 

I wouldn't be surprised or really bothered if "no new innings after 90 pitches" is a rule for now. I want this guy pitching in October. 

Now hopefully Grayson can test the limit by getting through 5 in 70-80 pitches sometime soon. I bet we'll see plenty of 6 IP outings from him this year, less sure about 7+.

[Just Regular]

Elias punted deeper than Theo or Luhnow because of the AL East or John Angelos or Buck/Dan's credit card bill or whatever, and in so doing gave us a supersize portion of what at or below replacement level MLB performance looks like.

Spenser Watkins and Bruce Zimmermann have like a million or something in earnings thanks to this, but unless Bruce is ceremonially pitching Game 162 for the Loyola hometown folks, I'll be okay if we universally keep stronger pitchers on our bump.     

[glenn__davis]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I think it's kind of wild to expect Bradish and GRod to have ERAs under 4. Frankly that's just not very likely. Bradish still looks like he's prone to unraveling or sudden loss of command. GRod is a rookie and I would expect something in the mid-4's with nice strikeout numbers. 

Kremer is a disaster. Guy is tough to figure out. One start he's pitching like someone insulted his mother and no one can touch him, and then he'll come out the next one and just have nothing. Kind of tired of the inconsistency. It's a spot that needs to be upgraded as soon as they have confidence in someone to replace him. 

Kremer hasn't been very inconsistent this year.  He's been terrible save for one start against the Nats who are barely a MLB team this year.

I'd give him one more start and then look to make a move if there's no improvement.  Not sure what that move might be though.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Post game interview after he pitched.

Just trying to work on getting the velocity back and tightening some things up with my mechanics and whatnot to get that back."

The dip is a mixture of mechanics and the time missed in spring training with a lower-back injury.

"I think just kind of getting the strength back," Hall said. "I started back lifting weights. This past week was my first time lifting weights, so hopefully with that and just keep going with that, it will come back."

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/orioles-can-t-rally-past-tigers-in-game-1-of-doubleheader-hall-strikes-out-seven-in-return-to-majors

------

The video interview was more informative because he was directly ask if the velo dip was due to he back injury.

 

Edited May 1, 2023 by wildcard

[deward]

22 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I agree on all points.  Only guy I’m really high on and think could be a #3+ maybe #2 is Cade Povich.   Happy with the Bradish and Wells acquisitions and think they are solid MLB contributors for 162, but would not be excited about either starting a playoff game 

I'm not as high (yet) on Povich as some. He can clearly miss bats, which is good, but his command is iffy and he hasn't exactly dominated at AA yet (last start excepted). I can see the appeal, but the results aren't entirely there so far.

[Spy Fox]

3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Elias punted deeper than Theo or Luhnow because of the AL East or John Angelos or Buck/Dan's credit card bill or whatever, and in so doing gave us a supersize portion of what at or below replacement level MLB performance looks like.

Spenser Watkins and Bruce Zimmermann have like a million or something in earnings thanks to this, but unless Bruce is ceremonially pitching Game 162 for the Loyola hometown folks, I'll be okay if we universally keep stronger pitchers on our bump.     

Those 2021 O's and 2023 A's are truly charitable, drawing AAAA players from across the land to collect their millions. Unlike those scrooge Dodgers and Astros! 

[emmett16]

7 minutes ago, deward said:

I'm not as high (yet) on Povich as some. He can clearly miss bats, which is good, but his command is iffy and he hasn't exactly dominated at AA yet (last start excepted). I can see the appeal, but the results aren't entirely there so far.

I’m a sucker for tall lefties with multiple breaking pitches  who pitch backwards.  I’ve seen him in starts where he has pinpoint control with multiple off-speed pitches and the batters are so off balanced because they have no clue what’s coming.  The 93-94 FB plays like 98-99. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by emmett16