What if Mateo and Urias are part of the future?

[TommyPickles]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes we do…but what type of players will they be by then?  Will they be better than guys that are 5-8 years younger? 
 

I get the point of the thread. I get the idea that you don’t just toss these guys away. They are good players…maybe even more than good.

But you do have to play the odds and you do have to recognize the talent that is coming. 

Hard to say. And I think you are most likely right that this organization will look towards the cheaper, younger options. I just wonder if Urias could have a Melvin Mora-type career. 

They both got their first full seasons at age 28. Both play 3B. Both seem like late bloomers without a ton of speed, some pop, and strong on-base numbers.

Mora's best seasons were 

Age 31: .921 OPS, 4.7 rWAR, AS

Age 32: .981 OPS, 5.6 rWAR, Silver Slugger, 18th in AL MVP

Age 33: .821 OPS, 4.3 rWAR, AS

 

But maybe Mora was a bit of an anomaly and I'm overvaluing Urias. Guess we'll see what they do. I just don't want to see him dealt for lottery tickets.

Edited May 3, 2023 by TommyPickles

[RarityFlaherty]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The Orioles have a chance to compete for multiple World Series runs given the sheer level of talent that is within the org. I don’t want to see that ruined because we decide to go super cheap and decide to rebuild/reload or whatever you want to call it, every year. 

The way Mateo is playing now it would be insane to trade him, unless the goal is not to chase championships, which as a fan of this team having suffered this long, I cannot support that in any way. I serious struggle to understand that rational of any fan who lives in this community who is on board or okay with an approach that maximizes the owner’s profits of the team’s results. We deserve much better than that!

Sorry for the rant. But it’s frustrating sometimes to read fans/posters on here willing to settle for such a “low bar”. This is our GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY that costs us dearly in the last 5 years of extreme misery! We will probably never have more talent/young assets/prospects than we do now. I don’t want to see us mess this up. 

I don’t think anyone here wants to maximize the owner’s profits over winning a World Series. Some people are just being more realistic about what we can do to maximize the results under the limitations of our cheap ownership. 

[Frobby]

46 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Mateo is playing like an MVP candidate right now. 

The last time the O’s had a shortstop who played like an MVP candidate for a month was August 2017, when Tim Beckham was traded to us and hit .394/.417/.646 for the month.  Many of the arguments being made now about Mateo — “he was a top prospect with amazing tools who just took a long time to develop” — were being tossed around about Beckham that August.  And then, September arrived.

So, I think I’ll wait another month or two before drawing any conclusions about how real Mateo’s offensive improvement is.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

The last time the O’s had a shortstop who played like an MVP candidate for a month was August 2017, when Tim Beckham was traded to us and hit .394/.417/.646 for the month.  Many of the arguments being made now about Mateo — “he was a top prospect with amazing tools who just took a long time to develop” — were being tossed around about Beckham that August.  And then, September arrived.

So, I think I’ll wait another month or two before drawing any conclusions about how real Mateo’s offensive improvement is.

I'd say it doesn't really matter how real it is.. if you can get a nice haul for him before the deadline.. let someone else find out

 

[sportsfan8703]

Urias won a GG last year.  Mateo might win a GG this.  Heck, Mateo might went a Silver Slugger.  I think Westburg is the odd man out.  Mateo, Urias, Gunnar, and Ortiz, all offer premium defense.  If Westburg is going to remain in the org, we should try him this year in COF and 1B.  Would you want Westburg or McCann as DH vs. LHP?  

[Bemorewins]

24 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

I don’t think anyone here wants to maximize the owner’s profits over winning a World Series. Some people are just being more realistic about what we can do to maximize the results under the limitations of our cheap ownership. 

I hear what you are saying.

I just having a hard time believing or even seeing a path toward championship success if the notion is true and he’s going to be so cheap as to want to get rid of all-star level players who are contributing to a postseason team just because they are arb-eligible. 

My nightmare scenario is that somehow awful Angelos will figure out a way to ruin this. I don’t know how many times in the last 50-60 years one org has had this much talent. 

[sportsfan8703]

10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I hear what you are saying.

I just having a hard time believing or even seeing a path toward championship success if the notion is true and he’s going to be so cheap as to want to get rid of all-star level players who are contributing to a postseason team just because they are arb-eligible. 

My nightmare scenario is that somehow awful Angelos will figure out a way to ruin this. I don’t know how many times in the last 50-60 years one org has had this much talent. 

It's not just that we have talent, but we're also putting out premium defense except for COF/1B.  Then you look and our best prospects also play premium defense.  Ortiz and Cowser are the ones to keep of the AAA guys currently.  

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It's not just that we have talent, but we're also putting out premium defense except for COF/1B.  Then you look and our best prospects also play premium defense.  Ortiz and Cowser are the ones to keep of the AAA guys currently.  

I factor in defense in the talent assessment.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I hear what you are saying.

I just having a hard time believing or even seeing a path toward championship success if the notion is true and he’s going to be so cheap as to want to get rid of all-star level players who are contributing to a postseason team just because they are arb-eligible. 

My nightmare scenario is that somehow awful Angelos will figure out a way to ruin this. I don’t know how many times in the last 50-60 years one org has had this much talent. 

I think people have taken their fears about the Orioles’ budgetary constraints to a hysterical level.  Shedding payroll the last 4-5 years was the logical thing to do, since the team was going nowhere either way.  It’s got nothing to do with the spending decisions to be made now that the team is competitive.  The team is cheap now because many of its best players are not yet arbitration eligible, or are in the early years of arbitration.  I don’t have any reason to think the O’s are going to be trading guys away from this point forward just to shed payroll.   They may trade guys when they have a cheaper, equally capable replacement available, and I’m fine with that. 

Do I think our payroll is going to ballon to over $100 mm in one fell swoop next winter?  No.  Do I think it’s going to rise pretty steadily from here and be over $100 mm in a couple of years?  Yes.  It’s what happens after a rebuild.  
 

[RarityFlaherty]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I hear what you are saying.

I just having a hard time believing or even seeing a path toward championship success if the notion is true and he’s going to be so cheap as to want to get rid of all-star level players who are contributing to a postseason team just because they are arb-eligible. 

My nightmare scenario is that somehow awful Angelos will figure out a way to ruin this. I don’t know how many times in the last 50-60 years one org has had this much talent. 

Personally, if we are in playoff contention, I don’t think we should be trading anyone on the major league team away at the trade deadline this year. We should be looking at trading our prospects for pitching from teams out of contention. But I also don’t see a problem with trading arb eligible guys like Urias and Mateo for pitching in the off-season, especially when we have plenty of other guys to take their place. Getting maximum value from those guys will help with our longterm success and longterm success is what will get us to a championship. I think both of them are probably a little too old to really be considered part of the future of this team. 

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Personally, if we are in playoff contention, I don’t think we should be trading anyone on the major league team away at the trade deadline this year. We should be looking at trading our prospects for pitching from teams out of contention. But I also don’t see a problem with trading arb eligible guys like Urias and Mateo for pitching in the off-season, especially when we have plenty of other guys to take their place. Getting maximum value from those guys will help with our longterm success and longterm success is what will get us to a championship. I think both of them are probably a little too old to really be considered part of the future of this team. 

If Mateo produces an all-star level season or close, I don’t see an issue with holding on to him until Holiday is ready.

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think people have taken their fears about the Orioles’ budgetary constraints to a hysterical level.  Shedding payroll the last 4-5 years was the logical thing to do, since the team was going nowhere either way.  It’s got nothing to do with the spending decisions to be made now that the team is competitive.  The team is cheap now because many of its best players are not yet arbitration eligible, or are in the early years of arbitration.  I don’t have any reason to think the O’s are going to be trading guys away from this point forward just to shed payroll.   They may trade guys when they have a cheaper, equally capable replacement available, and I’m fine with that. 

Do I think our payroll is going to ballon to over $100 mm in one fell swoop next winter?  No.  Do I think it’s going to rise pretty steadily from here and be over $100 mm in a couple of years?  Yes.  It’s what happens after a rebuild.  
 

I sincerely hope that you are right and I really want to believe that what you are saying is true. It sounds logical and akin to what the Astros have done. 

I have absolutely no confidence in the ultra cheap/constant rebuild approach in terms or achieving ultimate championship success. The model will have us being always good but never good enough, which after the last 40 years, I think we should and absolutely can set our sights a lot higher.

[RarityFlaherty]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think people have taken their fears about the Orioles’ budgetary constraints to a hysterical level.  Shedding payroll the last 4-5 years was the logical thing to do, since the team was going nowhere either way.  It’s got nothing to do with the spending decisions to be made now that the team is competitive.  The team is cheap now because many of its best players are not yet arbitration eligible, or are in the early years of arbitration.  I don’t have any reason to think the O’s are going to be trading guys away from this point forward just to shed payroll.   They may trade guys when they have a cheaper, equally capable replacement available, and I’m fine with that. 

Do I think our payroll is going to ballon to over $100 mm in one fell swoop next winter?  No.  Do I think it’s going to rise pretty steadily from here and be over $100 mm in a couple of years?  Yes.  It’s what happens after a rebuild.  
 

Yeah this is exactly how I feel. I don’t think we need to freak out about payroll limitations just yet. And even if they are going to be super cheap, there is still a path to a championship if they make smart moves. We should probably get used to and expect some roster churn, but my hope is that we at least lock up some of our guys long term. I’m fine with mostly staying away from giving out big contracts in free agency though. 

[RarityFlaherty]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If Mateo produces an all-star level season or close, I don’t see an issue with holding on to him until Holiday is ready.

Me neither. If that’s what we do, I’d want to maybe look at trading Urias then with how crowded things are getting in the infield. Someone is going to have to go eventually to make room for the prospects.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Yeah this is exactly how I feel. I don’t think we need to freak out about payroll limitations just yet. And even if they are going to be super cheap, there is still a path to a championship if they make smart moves. We should probably get used to and expect some roster churn, but my hope is that we at least lock up some of our guys long term. I’m fine with mostly staying away from giving out big contracts in free agency though. 

Roster churn is fine and necessary. The Astros have done that over the last 6/7 years and it’s worked out for them for the most part. And I would even argue the fact that 12-16 Orioles didn’t do that caused it to all come crashing down.

I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but I disagree with the cheap part. We are going to have to spin, even if it’s in arb eligible players and doing some smart extension, in order to win a title. Our competition is just too good for the foreseeable future in the AL. It’s going to take talent to get us across the finish line. And some of that talent will have to come front outside of the org, we just don’t have the organizational pitching talent to win as is with just “our guys”.